[Fanatical] New Week Game Deals (Including The Jackbox Party Pack 5 (-40%), Dreamcast Collection (-85%), Alien: Isolation Collection (-78%), Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed (-77%), Motorsport Manager (-77%) & More)
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The offshore FX and CFDs broker StockGlobal offers many trading accounts on the MetaTrader trading platform. The Marshell Islands-based Longsdale Capital LTD manages the StockGlobal brand. The trading conditions are high on each of the four trading accounts. In this StockGlobal review, we will discuss other offerings and problems associated with this broker. About StockGlobal: The four accounts namely Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum are offered by this broker with the initial investment ranging from $250 to $50000. Furthermore, the level of provided spreads ranges from 2.8 pips to 0.1 pips according to the chosen trading account. The leverage levels are fixed at 1:300 on all four accounts. The world's number one trading platform MetaTrader is offered by StockGlobal. The provided leverage is high and several traders will be attracted to these high leverages provided by StockGlobal. Such high leverage can cause harm to investments. The offered CFDs at StockGlobal are on FX pairs, shares, binary options, commodities, indexes, etc. As discussed in the opening and considering information on the broker's website the manager of StockGlobal, Longsdale Capital LTD, is situated in the Marshall Islands. Marshell Island is a very popular destination amongst the scam brokers. Also, the traders operating from this island do not follow any brokerage regulations and licensing required very little documentation. Also, such brokers are strictly banned in regulated markets like the EU, Japan, the US, and more. The safety and security of the investment made in StockGlobal by traders are prone to scam. The StockGlobal is accused of scam by several online forums. Also, the Belgian local financial authority the Financial Services and Markets Authority issued warnings against the broker. The provided spreads of 2.8 pips on EUUSD FX pair is also considered high. Most of the regulated brokers provide spreads around 0.1 pips on Euro/Dollar FX pair. Furthermore, the website claims other trading conditions and a demo account provides different trading condition. This looks like a Ponzi scheme to attract traders. The offered MetaTrader platform is managed by another firm that also manages several other scam brokers.
Is StockGlobal scam or legit?
The broker is situated on Marshell Island, which is heaven for the scammer. The broker is also not regulated and doesn’t have a valid license. The offered trading conditions are designed in such a way that traders can be attracted. Overall the StockGlobal gives an impression of a forex scam broker.
How to Become Your Own Fund Manager Building It From 0
Diversification is still Key. Putting all of your money on one stock is gambling. In the end / longterm gamblers lose. I recommend a portfolio of 20 stocks.
Choose profitability over hype. There are exceptions to the rules and if you do spot the next Amazon, or Tesla, no more than 5% of your total fund investment should be placed in the next Amazon. Why? 99 times out of 100, after the hype, it falls apart, and there goes your money
Dividends. Do your choices pay dividends? Has the company increased its dividends regularly? Over the long run has the share price increased steadily?
Options. Can you buy sell calls or puts on the shares held? If yes, then writing calls and puts will generate more income. Please youtube basics on options trading. Stay away from binary trading or futures options trading. No need to use those derivatives from your mutual fund.
Currency Hedged . Can you buy that amazing stock in USD or EUR or CDN ? If your account with your broker allows it, so very cool.
ETF's. You may choose right from the get go to build a mutual fund account out of tradable ETFs instead of the share. Advantage . You don't have to stress because the ETF manager does all the trading within the ETF. When you buy, for example, a Cannabis ETF, you will own a broad base of the most popular cannabis shares instead of trying to choose the best yourself. There can be a management fee and ETFs are tradable like stocks and for many, you can buy sell options on the same ETFs. Personally, if the idea of trying to pick the right stocks seems daunting, ETFs could be the way to go. There are different kinds of ETFs. Some carry very speculative stocks. Some are 100 filled with hedged instruments for maximum yield and maximum risk. Some are focused on one sector. How to pick the best? What has been the track record of the ETF for the last 10 years? Is it in the top 20? What was its ROI ? What about liquidity? Will you be able to sell it quickly when comes the time?
How to build it. You will need to put on your telescopic lenses and ask yourself what industries will still be around in 20 years? And make your choices. Example of longterm industries.
Fertilizer companies 2. Retail chains 3. Energy as in fuel or electricity 4. High tech 5. Growing Industries that are taking off now example Cannabis, A.I., 6. Software and Security 7. Transport 8. Pharmaceuticals 9. Waste Management 10. Conglomerate
Now make our choices by criteria 1. Growing profitability 2. Growing eps 3. Growing dividends 4.can you buy sell options per company held
Purchasing the shares. Shares can be purchased in lots of 100. If your budget limits you then buy only 1 company per sector and buy the best that money can buy. If you can not buy 100 shares of Google then you try buying 10 shares or buy 1 call contract . Learn about call options 1st before you buy. Always choose an expiration date that is far away, as a leap contract.
Hedging Always a good idea to protect the value of your holdings.the With your mutual fund with every share you can write covered calls as a hedge which is explained all over youtube. You can buy puts which increase in value as a share falls. It has an expiration. Learn about puts via youtube.
You can write covered calls slightly OOTM that expire in 3 months. The income generated provides you with downward protection . Use the income to buy more shares to average out the price of your holdings. Learn about writing covered calls through youtube. Buying gold. No less than 10 % should be invested in the precious metal. .last year India, Russia, china all bought more gold than they ever did in previous years. Why did they do that? Since more and more countries are going in debt, there is concerns that currencies will lose values and so, countries with high debts and also companies who lent out money to countries are buying gold . Gold over the long run will go up as more countries opt becoming a gold backed security. Even central.banks are buying. Let's say that there is a crisis and gold jumps 5 fold. Lets say that in the same moment your fund which was worth 100 k loses 80% because of currency crash. Let's say you had invested 10% in gold or 10k. If your gold jumps to 50k Then your total portfolio would be 70k. Your total investment was 110k. Your loss would be less severe. What if gold jumps 20 times higher and your fund is totally wiped out. You would own gold whose worth would be 200 % more than your fund value was. Can there be a currency crash? Yes. Do we know when? No. That is why large countries including USA are increasing their gold reserves. Since gold will go up and since gold is rare, eventually countries with large debts will pay off all their debts with gold instead of paper.
Waiting. Once your choices are made know this. You will be receiving dividends for every stock . No need to time anything. Instruct your broker to re invest your money.
If you look at a typical chart say Proctor and a gamble. Where was it 20 years ago and where is it now. Or Microsoft? Apple? Great companies grow and prosper. They all will go through bumps but in the long run, your strategy should be buy hold and prosper. Over time you can increase stock choices or industries or decide to create a micro fund of ETFs within your own fund account.
Self education Chart reading is a skill that needs to be learned. Again. Youtube it.
Join an Investment club and learn from others
Final recommendation. Learn to control your emotions. Buy. Hold. Prosper
This post is meant as a beginner's guide . I am not a financial planner and I have no degree in it. Before beginning your personal fund plan, meet with your accountant or financial planner, share this microblog with him and adjust and add more criteria that suits your personality while maximizing returns and minimizing taxes.
Skrill là gì? Cách sử dụng khi cá độ bóng đá tại W88
Ngoài PayPal và Neteller thì Skrill là một trong những dịch vụ phí điện tử và thanh toán trực tuyến phổ biến lớn nhất thế giới. Hiện hoạt động tại hơn 200 quốc gia, Skrill là phương thức thuận tiện nhất cho người chơi ở Châu Á nạp tiền vào các tài khoản cá cược thể thao, casino trực tuyến tại nhà cái. Vậy Skrill là gì?
Skrill là gì?
Skrill là ví điện tử được cung cấp bởi công ty thanh toán trực tuyến đa quốc gia PaySafe Group có trụ sở tại Luân Đôn, Anh. Skrill cho phép thanh toán, chuyển và nhận tiền thông qua mạng Internet với trọng tâm là chuyển tiền quốc tế chi phí thấp. Hiện nay, Skrill là một trong những công ty cung cấp dịch vụ thanh toán online lớn nhất và phổ biến trên thế giới với số lượng hơn 70 triệu người dùng, hỗ trợ hơn 40 loại tiền khác nhau như USD, EUR… cùng với hơn 100 tùy chọn thanh toán như qua thẻ visa, thẻ tín dụng, mastercard, giao dịch ngang hàng…
Tính năng của Skrill
Skrill được xem như là một tài khoản ngân hàng online hoặc một ví điện tử của bạn, Skrill có những tính năng vượt trội như:
Thanh toán mua hàng và dịch vụ online tại các website chấp nhận thanh toán bằng ví điện tử này.
Chuyển và nhận tiền giữa các tài khoản Skrill nhanh chóng với chi phí tối đa không quá 10 EUR.
Cho phép chuyển tiền vào ví điện tử Skrill nhanh chóng bằng thẻ tín dụng hoặc thẻ ghi nợ quốc tế.
Rút tiền từ Skrill về tài khoản ngân hàng hoặc thẻ visa một cách nhanh chóng. Với phí chuyển tiền của Skrill được đánh giá là thấp nhất trong các dịch vụ chuyển tiền tương tự.
Có thể nạp và rút tiền tại các dịch vụ cá cược thể thao, chơi casino online… tại nhà cái một cách nhanh chóng bằng tài khoản Skrill.
Việc thanh toán hay chuyển tiền được thực hiện đơn giản bằng email và mật khẩu của người dùng. Theo đó bạn không cần phải nhập lại thông tin thẻ cho mỗi lần thanh toán, tất cả các thông tin này sẽ đều được bảo mật, điều đó sẽ giúp người dùng tránh bị lừa gạt hay bị đánh cắp thông tin.
Tại sao dân cá độ bóng đá nên sử dụng Skrill?
Những ưu điểm của Skrill mà dân cá độ nên cân nhắc sử dụng:
Có thể thực hiện thanh toán trên tất cả các website của hầu hết các quốc gia trên thế giới.
Nạp và rút tiền trên các trang Stock, Forex, Casino, Binary Option…
Phí chuyển tiền giữa các tài khoản Skrill cực kỳ rẻ.
Có thể nạp tiền từ thẻ ghi nợ và thẻ tín dụng vào Skrill.
Có thể rút tiền từ Skrill về thẻ ngân hàng địa phương, visa hoặc là Mastercard.
Phí chuyển tiền là thấp nhất so với các dịch vụ ví điện tử khác.
Thao tác nhanh, gọn và không cần nhập lại thông tin nhiều lần nhưng thông tin vẫn được bảo mật tuyệt đối.
Bạn sẽ tạo được tài khoản ví Skrill trong vài phút đăng ký, với nhu cầu sử dụng lâu dài thì bạn sẽ cần thực hiện quy trình xác minh tài khoản một cách đơn giản.
#2. Gửi tiền vào ví
Có 2 cách để nạp tiền vào ví Skrill:
Tự nạp bằng thẻ visa/mastercard (không dùng để cá cược được)
Mua $ từ những người dùng khác (có thể dùng cho mọi mục đích)
#3. Chi tiêu
Bạn có thể giao dịch bằng ví Skrill nhanh chóng và an toàn:
Gửi tiền cho bất cứ ai, chỉ cần nhập địa chỉ email của họ.
Trả tiền khi mua sắm sản phẩm, dịch vụ online tại các website hỗ trợ thanh toán Skrill
Đặc biệt là bạn có thể nạp tiền miễn phí vào các tài khoản cá cược, forex, poker, chứng khoán online…
#4. Nhận tiền
Dùng ví Skrill để nhận các khoản thanh toán hoàn toàn miễn phí. Để nhận tiền, người dùng chỉ cần cung cấp cho người gửi địa chỉ email ví là xong. Bạn cũng có thể dùng ví Skrill để rút tiền thắng cá độ; forex; poker… một cách nhanh chóng.
#5. Rút tiền từ ví
Có rất nhiều cách rút tiền từ ví Skrill nhanh chóng và dễ dàng. Skrill hỗ trợ rút tiền về tài khoản ngân hàng; Visa; BankPlus Viettel với mức phí rất thấp. Hoặc bạn cũng có thể bán $ trong tài khoản Skrill của bạn cho người dùng khác và các đại lý thu mua ở Việt Nam một cách nhanh gọn với tỷ giá cao.
Dùng ví Skrill trong cá độ bóng đá
Skrill là ví điện tử đi đầu trong lĩnh vực chuyển tiền cá độ online. Hầu hết các trang web nhà cái đều hỗ trợ hình thức nạp/rút tiền bằng phương thức này với ưu điểm bảo mật và nhanh chóng. Đối với người dùng tại Việt Nam, để chơi tại sòng bài quốc tế bắt buộc bạn phải sử dụng ví điện tử trung gian; nguyên nhân là do ngân hàng trong nước không cho phép chuyển tiền trực tiếp bằng thẻ tới trang cá cược được. Lưu ý rằng bạn vẫn phải nạp tiền vào ví Skrill bằng thẻ của Việt Nam được nhưng khoản tiền đó sẽ không được sử dụng để cá cược. Vì thế mà tốt nhất bạn nên dùng dịch vụ mua bán tiền điện tử để giải quyết vấn đề này. Vừa rồi là những giải đáp Skrill là gì và các tính năng, cách sử dụng của Skrill. Hy vọng qua bài viết sẽ giúp bạn biết thêm một phương thức thanh toán mới và sử dụng. Chúc bạn thành công!
The biggest announcement of the month was the new kind of decentralized exchange proposed by @jy-p of Company 0. The Community Discussions section considers the stakeholders' response. dcrd: Peer management and connectivity improvements. Some work for improved sighash algo. A new optimization that gives 3-4x faster serving of headers, which is great for SPV. This was another step towards multipeer parallel downloads – check this issue for a clear overview of progress and planned work for next months (and some engineering delight). As usual, codebase cleanup, improvements to error handling, test infrastructure and test coverage. Decrediton: work towards watching only wallets, lots of bugfixes and visual design improvements. Preliminary work to integrate SPV has begun. Politeia is live on testnet! Useful links: announcement, introduction, command line voting example, example proposal with some votes, mini-guide how to compose a proposal. Trezor: Decred appeared in the firmware update and on Trezor website, currently for testnet only. Next steps are mainnet support and integration in wallets. For the progress of Decrediton support you can track this meta issue. dcrdata: Continued work on Insight API support, see this meta issue for progress overview. It is important for integrations due to its popularity. Ongoing work to add charts. A big database change to improve sorting on the Address page was merged and bumped version to 3.0. Work to visualize agenda voting continues. Ticket splitting: 11-way ticket split from last month has voted (transaction). Ethereum support in atomicswap is progressing and welcomes more eyeballs. decred.org: revamped Press page with dozens of added articles, and a shiny new Roadmap page. decredinfo.com: a new Decred dashboard by lte13. Reddit announcement here. Dev activity stats for June: 245 active PRs, 184 master commits, 25,973 added and 13,575 deleted lines spread across 8 repositories. Contributions came from 2 to 10 developers per repository. (chart)
Hashrate: growth continues, the month started at 15 and ended at 44 PH/s with some wild 30% swings on the way. The peak was 53.9 PH/s. F2Pool was the leader varying between 36% and 59% hashrate, followed by coinmine.pl holding between 18% and 29%. In response to concerns about its hashrate share, F2Pool made a statement that they will consider measures like rising the fees to prevent growing to 51%. Staking: 30-day average ticket price is 94.7 DCR (+3.4). The price was steadily rising from 90.7 to 95.8 peaking at 98.1. Locked DCR grew from 3.68 to 3.81 million DCR, the highest value was 3.83 million corresponding to 47.87% of supply (+0.7% from previous peak). Nodes: there are 240 public listening and 115 normal nodes per dcred.eu. Version distribution: 57% on v1.2.0 (+12%), 25% on v1.1.2 (-13%), 14% on v1.1.0 (-1%). Note: the reported count of non-listening nodes has dropped significantly due to data reset at decred.eu. It will take some time before the crawler collects more data. On top of that, there is no way to exactly count non-listening nodes. To illustrate, an alternative data source, charts.dcr.farm showed 690 reachable nodes on Jul 1. Extraordinary event: 247361 and 247362 were two nearly full blocks. Normally blocks are 10-20 KiB, but these blocks were 374 KiB (max is 384 KiB).
Update from Obelisk: shipping is expected in first half of July and there is non-zero chance to meet hashrate target. Another Chinese ASIC spotted on the web: Flying Fish D18 with 340 GH/s at 180 W costing 2,200 CNY (~340 USD). (asicok.com – translated, also on asicminervalue) dcrASIC team posted a farewell letter. Despite having an awesome 16 nm chip design, they decided to stop the project citing the saturated mining ecosystem and low profitability for their potential customers.
Changenow announced the option to buy DCR with fiat.
TokenPride: "We are seeking feedback on the general setup of our payment processor. We have tried to make it simple and user friendly. 10% of all purchases made in Decred will be donated to the Decred Development fund - and we will be releasing original Decred designs in the future".
BlueYard Capital announced investment in Decred and the intent to be long term supporters and to actively participate in the network's governance. In an overview post they stressed core values of the project:
There are a few other remarkable characteristics that are a testament to the DNA of the team behind Decred: there was no sale of DCR to investors, no venture funding, and no payment to exchanges to be listed – underscoring that the Decred team and contributors are all about doing the right thing for long term (as manifested in their constitution for the project). The most encouraging thing we can see is both the quality and quantity of high calibre developers flocking to the project, in addition to a vibrant community attaching their identity to the project.
The company will be hosting an event in Berlin, see Events below. Arbitrade is now mining Decred.
Campus Party in Brasilia, Brazil. @girino, @Rhama and @matheusd talked about Decred. Matheus was interviewed by a TV channel. Check this quick report about the event, click "Show newer" to continue reading. (photos: 123)
Blockchain Summit in London, UK. This was not a full blown presence with stand but rather investigation of opportunities by @kyle and @Ani. The resulting detailed report is a good example of a document advising to stakeholders whether it is worth spending project funds.
Meetup in Berlin, Germany on July 18. @jz will give a talk and Q&A about Decred and chat with Ele from @oscoin about incentivizing developers. Hosted by BlueYard Capital.
Hey guys! I'd like to share with you my latest adventure: Stakey Club, hosted at stakey.club, is a website dedicated to Decred. I posted a few articles in Brazilian Portuguese and in English. I also translated to Portuguese some posts from the Decred Blog. I hope you like it! (slack)
Decred Assembly - Ep20 - Governance: Driving the Future (youtube) @cburniske and @traceagain discuss the importance of governance protocols being foundational and problems with delegated proof of stake
"I think that developers in the future are going to base their decision on where to build on the basis of governance and community. And so I look for good governance mechanisms and strong communities in blockchains." (@decredproject)
What is on-chain cryptocurrency governance? Is it plutocratic? by Richard Red (medium)
Apples to apples, Decred is 20x more expensive to attack than Bitcoin by Zubair Zia (medium)
What makes Decred different and better from other cryptocurrencies? (cxihub.com)
Community stats: Twitter followers 40,209 (+1,091), Reddit subscribers 8,410 (+243), Slack users 5,830 (+172), GitHub 392 stars and 918 forks of dcrd repository. An update on our communication systems:
Matrix chat logs are nowviewable on the web with the exception of some channels that are not bridged. The new web logs means our chats are now fully public and indexed by search engines.
Slack had an outage on Jun 27 that disturbed communications for a few hours, discussions continued on Decred's bridged platforms.
Jake Yocom-Piatt did an AMA on CryptoTechnology, a forum for serious crypto tech discussion. Some topics covered were Decred attack cost and resistance, voting policies, smart contracts, SPV security, DAO and DPoS. A new kind of DEX was the subject of an extensive discussion in #general, #random, #trading channels as well as Reddit. New channel #thedex was created and attracted more than 100 people. A frequent and fair question is how the DEX would benefit Decred. @lukebp has put it well:
Projects like these help Decred attract talent. Typically, the people that are the best at what they do aren’t driven solely by money. They want to work on interesting projects that they believe in with other talented individuals. Launching a DEX that has no trading fees, no requirement to buy a 3rd party token (including Decred), and that cuts out all middlemen is a clear demonstration of the ethos that Decred was founded on. It helps us get our name out there and attract the type of people that believe in the same mission that we do. (slack)
Another concern that it will slow down other projects was addressed by @davecgh:
The intent is for an external team to take up the mantle and build it, so it won't have any bearing on the current c0 roadmap. The important thing to keep in mind is that the goal of Decred is to have a bunch of independent teams on working on different things. (slack)
A chat about Decred fork resistance started on Twitter and continued in #trading. Community members continue to discuss the finer points of Decred's hybrid system, bringing new users up to speed and answering their questions. The key takeaway from this chat is that the Decred chain is impossible to advance without votes, and to get around that the forker needs to change the protocol in a way that would make it clearly not Decred. "Against community governance" article was discussed on Reddit and #governance. "The Downside of Democracy (and What it Means for Blockchain Governance)" was another article arguing against on-chain governance, discussed here. Reddit recap: mining rig shops discussion; how centralized is Politeia; controversial debate on photos of models that yielded useful discussion on our marketing approach; analysis of a drop in number of transactions; concerns regarding project bus factor, removing central authorities, advertising and full node count – received detailed responses; an argument by insette for maximizing aggregate tx fees; coordinating network upgrades; a new "Why Decred?" thread; a question about quantum resistance with a detailed answer and a recap of current status of quantum resistant algorithms. Chats recap: Programmatic Proof-of-Work (ProgPoW) discussion; possible hashrate of Blake-256 miners is at least ~30% higher than SHA-256d; how Decred is not vulnerable to SPV leaf/node attack.
DCR opened the month at ~$93, reached monthly high of $110, gradually dropped to the low of $58 and closed at $67. In BTC terms it was 0.0125 -> 0.0150 -> 0.0098 -> 0.0105. The downturn coincided with a global decline across the whole crypto market. In the middle of the month Decred was noticed to be #1 in onchainfx "% down from ATH" chart and on this chart by @CoinzTrader. Towards the end of the month it dropped to #3.
Please note: we will not accept any kind of payment to list an asset.
Bithumb got hacked with a $30 m loss. Zcash organized Zcon0, an event in Canada that focused on privacy tech and governance. An interesting insight from Keynote Panel on governance: "There is no such thing as on-chain governance". Microsoft acquired GitHub. There was some debate about whether it is a reason to look into alternative solutions like GitLab right now. It is always a good idea to have a local copy of Decred source code, just in case. Status update from @sumiflow on correcting DCR supply on various sites:
To begin with, none of the below sites were showing the correct supply or market cap for Decred but we've made some progress. coingecko.com, coinlib.io, cryptocompare.com, livecoinwatch.com, worldcoinindex.com - corrected! cryptoindex.co, onchainfx.com - awaiting fix coinmarketcap.com - refused to fix because devs have coins too? (slack)
About This Issue
This is the third issue of Decred Journal after April and May. Most information from third parties is relayed directly from source after a minimal sanity check. The authors of Decred Journal have no ability to verify all claims. Please beware of scams and do your own research. The new public Matrix logs look promising and we hope to transition from Slack links to Matrix links. In the meantime, the way to read Slack links is explained in the previous issue. As usual, any feedback is appreciated: please comment on Reddit, GitHub or #writers_room. Contributions are welcome too, anything from initial collection to final review to translations. Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee and Richard-Red. Special thanks to @Haon for bringing May 2018 issue to medium.
Cac san giao dich Bitcoin uy tin tai Viet Nam va nhung dieu ban nen biet
Xem thêm bài viết tại đây. Chắc hẳn mối quan tâm hàng đầu của các bạn độc giả khi tham gia thị trường cryptocurrency là tìm được sàn giao dịch Bitcoin uy tín, sàn mua bán Ethereum danh tiếng,… Trong bài viết này,tiendientu.orgsẽ giúp bạn trả lời những câu hỏi như sàn giao dịch là gì, sàn mua bán Bitcoin nào đang phổ biến và được tin dùng trên cả thế giới và ở Việt Nam.
1. Sàn giao dịch là gì?
Sàn giao dịch cryptocurrency (không nên gọi là “sàn giao dịch tiền ảo“) là bộ phần quan trọng trong thị trường tiền mã hóa nói riêng và ngành công nghiệp blockchain nói chung. Đây là nơi giúp nhà đầu tư và người dùng dễ dàng tiếp cận cũng như trao đổi các tài sản mã hóa. Hình dung đơn giản, nếu chứng khoán được mua bán trên những sàn giao dịch chứng khoán được Nhà nước cấp phép (lẫn không cấp phép – thị trường chợ đen), thì coin và token cũng được niêm yết và mua bán lên những sàn giao dịch dành riêng cho cryptocurrency. Sàn giao dịch là gì? Chẳng hạn, khi bạn muốn mua Bitcoin, ngoài cách mua trực tiếp từ người bán mà bạn biết, bạn cũng có thể tìm một sàn giao dịch cryptocurrency có niêm yết BTC, đăng ký tài khoản, nạp tiền và đặt lệnh mua. Thông qua hình thức này, bạn có thể mua coin mà không cần biết bên bán là ai, ở đâu,… Dĩ nhiên, vấn đề là bạn phải sử dụng sàn giao dịch Bitcoin uy tín. Khi thị trường cryptocurrency ngày càng phát triển, sàn giao dịch cũng xuất hiện ngày càng nhiều, đa dạng về số lượng lẫn chất lượng. Bên cạnh đó, sàn giao dịch không chỉ niêm yết mỗi Bitcoin mà còn có nhiều đồng coin/token khác, chẳng hạn như sàn giao dịch Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash,… tùy theo nhu cầu của người dùng. Bên cạnh đó, dù sàn giao dịch tiền ảo Việt Nam tính đến hiện nay đã có khá nhiều, nhưng chưa có đủ lượng người dùng, cũng như chưa nhận được quá nhiều sự ủng hộ. Người dân Việt Nam vẫn có xu hướng ưa chuộng những sàn giao dịch tiền ảo trên thế giới nhiều hơn.
2. Sàn giao dịch tập trung và sàn giao dịch phi tập trung khác nhau như thế nào?
Công nghệ blockchain có đặc điểm khác biệt là tính phân quyền, vì vậy những sàn giao dịch được xây dựng trên nền tảng blockchain cũng phân quyền – hay phi tập trung. Sàn giao dịch tập trung và sàn giao dịch phi tập trung khác nhau như thế nào? Nói một cách đơn giản, một sàn giao dịch cryptocurrency phi tập trung (Decentralized Exchange – DEX) cắt giảm bên thứ ba trung gian bằng cách tạo ra một môi trường hoạt động mà không cần phải đặt niềm tin rất thông minh. Các giao dịch được thực hiện thông qua smart contract và atomic swap (hoán đổi nguyên tử) để không phải thông qua bên thứ ba. Nó chỉ là một giao dịch ngang hàng peer-to-peer. Dù lý tưởng là vậy, nhưng DEX vẫn còn trong giai đoạn rất mới, chưa có nhiều tiến bộ lẫn thân thiện với người dùng như những sàn tập trung. Nên hiện tại và có thể là trong thời gian tới, sàn giao dịch tập trung vẫn chiếm hầu hết khối lượng giao dịch cryptocurrency.
3. Tất cả sàn giao dịch đều có thể dùng tiền pháp định (như USD, EUR) chăng?
Câu trả lời là: Không. Tất cả các sàn giao dịch đều có cặp giao dịch crypto – crypto (ví dụ: BTC/ETH, BTC/USDT), nhưng không phải sàn nào cũng đều có cặp tiền pháp định – tiền mã hóa (tức dùng USD hay EUR hay các đồng tiền tệ khác để mua BTC, ETH). Tất cả sàn giao dịch đều có thể dùng tiền pháp định (như USD, EUR) chăng? Các sàn giao dịch nổi tiếng nhất có hỗ trợ cho tiền pháp định là: Coinbase – sàn giao dịch phổ biến nhất ở Mỹ, hỗ trợ Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin và Ethereum,… Gemini – có trụ sở tại New York, đáp ứng đủ các quy định khắc khe của Mỹ. Hỗ trợ Bitcoin và Ethereum. Robinhood – một ứng dụng trading phổ biến cung cấp các cặp tiền pháp định để mua bán với Bitcoin và Ethereum.
4. Mở tài khoản trên sàn có phải xác minh?
Các quy định của mỗi quốc gia vẫn còn chưa rõ ràng, nhưng sàn giao dịch trên toàn thế giới đều yêu cầu phải có những xác minh tối thiểu để xác thực tài khoản. Nhiều sàn giao dịch cho phép người dùng mở một tài khoản mà không cần xác minh danh tính, nhưng những tài khoản đó sẽ có hạn mức rút tiền/gửi tiền cực kỳ nhỏ. Xác minh cơ bản thường yêu cầu ảnh trên hộ chiếu/ID của người dùng và Xác thực 2 yếu tố (2 Factor Authentication – 2FA). 2FA là một mật khẩu bí mật được tái tạo sau mỗi 30 giây hoặc lâu hơn mà người dùng phải nhập mỗi lần muốn đăng nhập vào tài khoản. 2FA thường được lưu trên điện thoại của người dùng. Mở tài khoản trên sàn có phải xác minh? Các bạn độc giả có thể tìm những bài viết hướng dẫn cụ thể cách mở và xác thực tài khoản của những sàn giao dịch cụ thể trên website Tiendientu.org.
5. Một số sàn cryptocurrency có khối lượng giao dịch cao trên thế giới
5.1 Binance Mặc dù Binance chỉ vừa ra mắt vào năm 2017, nhưng khối lượng giao dịch luôn thuộc top cao nhất. Sàn giao dịch ban đầu có trụ sở tại Trung Quốc nhưng đã chuyển đến Malta do những quy định pháp lý ngặt nghèo ở quốc gia đông dân nhất. Binance phổ biến đến nỗi hầu hết các altcoin đều muốn được niêm yết trên sàn này đầu tiên sau khi ICO. Xác thực cấp 2 cho phép người dùng rút 100 Bitcoin trong khi Cấp 1 chỉ cho phép rút dưới 2 Bitcoin/ngày. 5.2. Bittrex Bittrex là sàn giao dịch tiền mã hóa lâu đời có trụ sở tại Mỹ. Trong khi các loại coin phổ biến nhất được trade là BTC và ETH, Bittrex đã cung cấp hơn 250 cặp trading. Đây là sàn giao dịch nổi tiếng với giao diện dễ sử dụng cho người mới bắt đầu tham gia vào thị trường. 5.3. Bitfinex Bitfinex có trụ sở tại Hồng Kông, là một sàn giao dịch tiền mã hóa lâu đời khác vẫn nằm trong top 10 tính theo khối lượng giao dịch. Một số sàn cryptocurrency có khối lượng giao dịch cao trên thế giới. 5.4. Coinbase Pro (trước đây là GDAX) CoinBase là một trong những sàn giao dịch phổ biến nhất trên thế giới. Sàn này không thích hợp cho người mới bắt đầu nhưng rất hữu ích cho giao dịch ký quỹ và có hỗ trợ cho tiền pháp định. Người dùng cũng có được khoản bảo hiểm lên đến $250.000 từ Tổng công ty Bảo hiểm Ký thác Liên bang (Mỹ).
6. Sàn giao dịch Bitcoin phổ biến ở Việt Nam
Như đã nói ở trên, người dân Việt vẫn ưa chuộng những sàn giao dịch nước ngoài, tham gia trading cùng toàn thế giới, nhưng hiện nay đã có một số sàn mua bán Bitcoin trong nước được nhiều người sử dụng. 6.1. Remitano là gì? Đúng hơn Remitano.com là một chợ Bitcoin, kết nối người bán và mua tự tin giao dịch an toàn dù không quen biết nhau. Điểm mạnh:
Linh hoạt: tự do lựa chọn đối tác trong hàng trăm người mua và bán.
Giao diện đơn giản.
Hỗ trợ nhiều ngân hàng trong nước -một ưu điểm so với các sàn giao dịch nước ngoài.
Giá tốt: giá tốt trên thị trường.
Có ứng dụng cho iPhone và iPad trên App store: hỗ trợ push notification, mua bán bất cứ đâu.
Dù đã có mua bán BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, XRP nhưng số lượng coin như vậy không đủ đáp ứng nhu cầu của người dùng.
Có hỗ trợ ngân hàng trong nước là một ưu điểm nhưng cũng là yếu điểm. Trong bối cảnh pháp lý cryptocurrency ở Việt Nam chưa rõ ràng, tình trạng mất kết nối với ngân hàng là có thể lường trước.
6.2. Binomo là gì? Binomo.com/vn là một sàn giao dịch và đầu tư theo hình thức quyền chọn nhị phân (Binary Option). Tức là người chơi sẽ dự đoán chiều hướng giá trị tài sản sẽ tăng hay giảm để thu lợi nhuận trong một khoảng thời gian cá cược nhất định. Nếu bạn lựa chọn đúng, bạn sẽ nhận được tiền lãi ngay lập tức, còn sai thì sẽ mất đi số tiền cược. Nguyên lý hoạt động của Binomo cũng tương tự giao dịch trên thị trường chứng khoán hay giao dịch cryptocurrency. Để chơi Binomo bạn không chỉ cần có kiến thức mà cònn cần kỹ năng giao dịch, tính toán thời điểm “vào lệnh”. Các giao dịch trên Binomo được phân chia dựa theo múi giờ, ở đó các khách hàng có thể trao đổi và mua bán từ các cặp tiền tệ, cổ phiếu đến hàng hóa để kiếm lời. Binomo có giao diện thân thiện nhưng không thích hợp với người ít kinh nghiệm Quyền chọn nhị phân. TUY NHIÊN, Binomo là lĩnh vực đầu tư có rủi ro cực kỳ cao, đặc biệt không dành cho người không có hoặc có ít kinh nghiệm về trading, đầu tư tài chính. Bạn có thể mất toàn bộ số vốn chỉ trong một thời gian rất ngắn. Đồng thời, rất nhiều cơ quan quản lý tài chính trên toàn cầu đã cảnh báo rằng Quyền chọn nhị phân (Binary Option) rất gần với lừa đảo. Tiendientu.org không khuyến cáo các bạn độc giả lựa chọn sàn này giao dịch, và nếu có thì hãy đầu tư số tiền rất ít.
7. Tóm tắt
Sàn giao dịch là gì? Sàn giao dịch cryptocurrency (hay còn gọi là “sàn giao dịch tiền ảo“) là nền tảng để mọi người mua bán các đồng tiền mã hóa. Sàn giao dịch tiền ảo trên thế giới có rất nhiều, đa dạng nhiều thể loại, có những sàn giao dịch Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash,… Sàn giao dịch tiền ảo Việt Nam trong năm 2018 cũng xuất hiện khá nhiều, nhưng chưa thu hút được người dùng đủ để cạnh tranh với các sàn nước ngoài. Số lượng sàn giao dịch Bitcoin hay sàn mua bán Bitcoin trên thế giới nhiều vô số kể, nhưng có những sàn giao dịch Bitcoin uy tín, phổ biến trong cộng đồng có thể kể đến như Binance, Huobi, Coinbase, Gemini, Bittrex, BitMex, OKEx,… Cập nhật tin tức mới nhất về blockchain và cryptocurrency tại Tiendientu.org
On ICO Madness and Having a Basic Framework for Investment Decisions
We've been witnessing lately a revolutionary way of crowdfunding that is happening almost on a daily basis in our community: ICOs. I guess we all know what they are by now, although many seem not to understand how it functions and what should be expected of them. There's also a lack of consensus in our community on what is a good ICO model or not: we're experimenting, live-testing and will surely iterate towards the best of ICO model options in the future. It may take time and much pain / failure, but I'm sure it will end up happening. As we move towards becoming the predominant crypto asset, we should consider educating ourselves on what to do with our precious ETH, on how to reward projects who deserve it and will perform moreless according to our expectations, and on how to exclude the possibility of giving it away to projects that do not deserve it and will underperform in comparison with our expectations. This is not a binary thing (overperforming or underperforming assets) because there's a worse third, fourth, fifth options: an ICO that results in an idea that never becomes a product, an ICO that ends up being a way of somebody getting rich quick without doing much work or an ICO that lies in the kind of product that it intends to build. Nice piece of English up there, right ? Well, I'm kind of new around here too and I've made my investment mistakes. Will definitely make some more, but hopefully not the ones with which I've learned something. So, my opinion is just that, my opinion. In order to get a bit away from the bias that my opinion obviously contains, please take your time to read / listen to the opinions of some people who are a little bit more experienced than you or me regarding our crypto space and that made us the favor of taking their time to share it openly. Here's a list of such resources that I've decided to compile:
There are much more. Feel free to reply with some more useful resources to list here, I'll inspect and add them. Now, once again, that's pretty and cool but we go back to the same questions that motivated this post:
How can I understand, as an early investor, what a proper ICO is ?
How can I minimize the probability of investing in the wrong thing ?
How can I know what I'm investing in ?
Tough questions indeed. I obviously can't answer each one of them directly like if I knew exactly what I'm talking about, but there's two positive lessons that we can immediately take from the bullet points above:
1) If you're asking yourself these questions, you're on the right path to learn if you should invest or not. It's a baby step and a very small one, but it's better than going all-in with your ETH / money in something you do not understand yet.
2) We can list a set of actions that you and me, as investors, commit to perform before investing in any given ICO. It's our mission, as investors, to understand if we have the necessary amount and quality of information before deciding to step up with our money or not.
Long post already, I know. A TL;DR won't save you from doing a bad investment though. Keep reading, I'm almost getting to my point. Now that we've decided to have an actionable framework of data gathering that will allow us to make a decision about our investment, we need to actually have a set of data entries. These entries can be many things, many of which I don't remember now. But here's some I do remember now that will provide you with some of the information you need:
1) Which problem is the project tackling ?
2) How will the product that will be built make money ?
3) How will that money affect the value of the tokens I'm buying ?
4) Who are the team members ?
5) What is the distribution of tasks between the team members ?
6) Are there more team members in marketing and business than developing and maintaining the software ?
7) How many Smart Contract developers does the team have ?
8) Which other projects have the team members worked in, before deciding to start this project ?
9) What is the total supply of tokens ?
10) Is that the final amount of supply or will there be more tokens to be added in the future ?
11) What is the token distribution in the crowdsale ?
12) Do the team members keep a higher amount of tokens than the ones being publicly sold ?
13) How much does each token cost at the moment of the ICO ?
14) Is the total number of tokens * each token cost higher than a very unreasonable amount of money ?
15) What do I think of the whitepaper ?
16) What is the product roadmap ?
17) When will they deliver their first version of the product ?
18) How does the team positions itself regarding their product's possible competition ?
19) In case they are positioning themselves against some product that competes with theirs, do they respect the value of that same product ?
20) Do they position themselves as competitors of something that is in production already ?
21) What are the odds that this product surpasses the quality of their competitors products ?
22) Have I replied to all the previous questions ?
In case you answer 22) with a 'No', go back and do it. Ideas will form, an opinion will be made and you will be able to communicate the project to your fellow Ethtraders anytime somebody asks something about in the Daily. If and when you answer 22) with a 'Yes', you can consider yourself an expert on what the project is, what it may be and what it aims to achieve. Again, in case you answered with a 'Yes' to question number 22, you'll be very well positioned to know if you're willing to invest or not. You'll have the arguments against anybody that opposes you in your decision. You'll have a rationale to do it or not. You'll probably be admired and crowned Ethtrader king once in a while, anytime somebody asks you something about this project. You'll know how much ETH / USD / EUR / BTC you're willing to invest on this one. Anytime a fat troll comes and attacks / defends this project, you'll rationally destroy the troll with your argumentation, respectfully and easily. Above all, you'll be part of a privileged group of 'smart money' investors. Don't misunderstand me: you'll probably still make many mistakes in terms of investment decisions, but the difference from then on will be that you'll embrace each one of them as another data point in your long learning curve. Now, go do yourself a favor: buy some more ETH and try your best to answer the questions above before throwing a single cent to any new project. P.S.: I've noticed there's a similar new post by salaamz (People are throwing money at things they don't even understand, and it's making me worried.... I was most probably writing this one at the same time. P.S. 2: The motivation to write this post is obviously constituted by the fact that we've seen some mad things happening in ICOs and we should all have an educative approach towards it, me included. Clays99 talked about it here and I decided to put this together.
Derivatives Trading is on the Edge of a New World With Artificial Intelligence on Level01
https://preview.redd.it/2r0yyzpr9z321.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d3d9fa506588761696133140ca38af266215f29 Could artificial intelligence in trading become the new normal? Advances in technology and new standards surrounding automated trading are pushing us ever closer to transforming the industry. If this sounds very much like a science fiction movie, we can assure you it is not. In fact, artificial intelligence (AI) is already being utilized by banks, but its going to take a little longer for people to catch up to the idea that their investment is as safe, if not safer than it would be if their investments were handled by humans. An analysis by Accenture indicates that between 2018 and 2022, banks that invest in AI and human-machine collaboration at the same rate as top-performing businesses could boost their revenue by an average of 34 percent. AI’s application is proven to improve efficiencies or customer outcomes and the software-development team at Level01 is working hard to achieve a human-machine collaborated future in derivatives trading — to help people trade better, with ease and peace of mind. As far as discernment in artificial intelligence in trading go, algorithmic trading is perhaps the most discussed of all. If we take a closer look at its application today, automated trading reflects our attitudes towards technology and how it is evolving the way we invest. Yet much of the discussion is still fixated on the hypothetical scenarios that automated trading would take over human jobs. Much less weight is being placed on the fact that AI through its fundamental form known to many as algorithmic trading has been used by institutional and retail investors for almost a decade now. “But there’s an obvious gap between institutional and retail users when it comes to trading and we aim to bridge that gap by creating a ‘level playing field’ for Level01 users. We do this by empowering them with our AI price discovery mechanism known as ‘FairSense’” says Naglis Vysniauskas, Head Quant Developer at Level01. “The AI was built using cross-stream analytics that were previously available only to institutional organizations.” From helping investors to assess true market value of the contracts to enabling them to continuously update their bid or offer price relative to the implied fair value by FairSense, plenty of functions were built in to support human-collaborated trading, rather than substituting it. Introducing these features on a sleek user-friendly app is a strategic step-by-step approach to help the public get used to a whole different way of investing on an efficient and trustworthy Peer to Peer Derivatives Market platform like Level01. “People will experience trading at speeds, liquidity, freedom, accountability and transparency that have never been available before” says Vysniauskas. Those that find it hard to believe, can now experience trading on Level01 without limitations traditionally set by brokers, who would force their clients to accept their given price, disallow clients from dictating the best execution and insist that clients to trade at a ‘spread vs. mid’ (clients have no power to negotiate the level of spreads which they pay). The level of freedom granted to users on Level01 is enticing and highly persuasive. “On the Level01 Derivatives Exchange platform, retail investors (or users as we call them) can trade against multiple peers or brokers, and this enables them to find best execution available,” says Vysniauskas. “Also, the ability to specify a fixed spread to fair value of an instrument could potentially reduce trading spreads significantly for large investors.” The practicality of this feature though may not fit small investors though, because leaving fixed bid or offer prices without continuous adjustment would be risky in markets where sudden movements are common. “That is why we built Level01 to give users the freedom to continuously update their bid or offer price relative to the implied fair value by FairSense, this is so that if the trade is not a match, the bid or offer price is updated continuously as market moves to ensure that it is always priced competitively relative to the most recent fair value” adds Vysniauskas. HOW DOES FAIRSENSE WORK TO LEVEL01 USER’S ADVANTAGE? For the purposes of explaining how FairSense AI helps users on Level01, we take a look at this case study of a Binary Option Example on EUUSD Forex Pair. https://preview.redd.it/qqiilcks9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfff89ed36c8051751e93f072c5c5f89b2ecace5 A 10-minute binary put option is being offered at a $59.73 (fair value +$0.50). The order is not filled or matched almost immediately, and after 4 seconds, the EUUSD spot price has moved by 1.5 pips and the fair value has not moved above the investor’s offer price. In this case, a contract is being offered below fair value. Now take a look at Chart 01 below. You can see that the relationship of the fair value of an option with the spot EUUSD price. You can tell that the fair value is highly dependent on the spot rate. Thus, if a retail investor submits an offer to an exchange, it might be filled at a time when it is already below the fair value — an undesirable scenario for investors. Such scenarios will stop investors from submitting further offers to the exchange. https://preview.redd.it/v9gfxbit9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=fea9e3720a679b5f79e0306409c73f71844210ac To resolve this common problem, Level01’s FairSense AI enables all investors to quote ‘relative offers’ to FairSense’s fair value. This allows investors to simultaneously compete for the best offers without imposing them with a requirement to have their own algorithms for price estimation and having them continuously updating the quote manually. https://preview.redd.it/4lmbz3du9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd59e23b3bab3d0d0097f5a0016bf489ddbbae4f In many ways, having AI as the norm will become essential to creating investment outcomes that are optimized for every type of investor, truly transforming the way trading is done. With an advanced Blockchain platform, AI and inbuilt frameworks that are designed to favor the user, Level01 will shape the future of automated trading on its Peer to Peer Derivatives Exchange at scale and speed that the world will come to marvel.
Futures Slide After US-China APEC Clash, Apple Production Cuts
After a dramatic end to the APEC summit in Papua New Guniea which concluded in disarray, without agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history amid the escalating rivalry between the United States and China, U.S. index futures initially traded sharply lower as investors digested signs that America-China trade tensions are set to persist, however they staged a modest rebound around the time Europe opened, and have traded mixed since amid subdued volumes as a holiday-shortened week begins in the US. Last Friday, US stocks jumped after President Trump said that he might not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions. However, tensions between the two superpowers were clearly on display at the APEC meeting over the weekend where Vice President Mike Pence said in a blunt speech that there would be no end to U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods until China changed its ways. “The comments from Trump were seen as offering a glimmer of hope that further tariff action could be held in abeyance,” said NAB’s head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill. “The exchange of barbs between Pence and Chinese President Xi Jinping in PNG on the weekend continues to suggest this is unlikely.” US Futures were also pressured following a report by the WSJ that Apple has cut iPhone production, creating turmoil for suppliers and sending AAPL stock 1.6% lower and pressuring Nasdaq futures. Yet while early sentiment was downbeat following the APEC fiasco, US futures staged a rebound as shares in both Europe and Asia rose while Treasuries declined, the dollar faded an initial move higher as traders focused on the Fed’s new-found concerns over the global economy, and the pound advanced amid speculation that the worst may be over for Theresa May, since the potential for a vote of no confidence in May may be losing traction: the Sun reported that 42 lawmakers have sent letters of no confidence to Graham Brady, 6 more are needed to trigger a leadership challenge Asia took a while to warm up but made a strong finish, with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.9% and Japan's Nikkei 0.7% higher, helping Europe start the week off strong too as a 1 percent jump in mining, tech and bank stocks helped traders shrug off last week’s Brexit woes. At the same time, stocks fell in Australia and New Zealand, where the Aussie and kiwi currencies dropped after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence attacked China at the weekend APEC summit. Telecommunications and construction shares pushed Europe's Stoxx 600 Index higher, along with stocks in Italy, where Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio said the government is ready for dialog with the European Commission over the country’s budget, which however seems just more semantics as Italy refused to concede to European budget demands. Meanwhile, in addition to confusion over trade, the outlook for U.S. interest rates was also uncertain. While Federal Reserve policymakers are still signaling rate increases ahead, they also sounded more concerned about a potential global slowdown, leading markets to suspect the tightening cycle may not have much further to run and Morgan Stanley to write that "We Sense A Shift In Tone From The Fed." Goldman Sachs also chimed in, saying it expected the pace of U.S. economic growth to slow toward the global average next year. The bank now sees a broad dollar decline next year, and revised its long-standing bearish view on the Japanese yen and tipped Latin American currencies, the Swedish krona, the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Israeli shekel to rise. “We see several changes to the global economic backdrop which, combined with a few negative medium-run factors, point to more downside than upside to the broad dollar in 2019,” Goldman economists said in an outlook report. Goldman's bearish tilt will focus attention on an appearance by New York Fed President John Williams later on Monday to see if he echoes the same theme. As Reuters notes, investors have already cut odds of further hikes, with a December move now priced at 73%, down from over 90%. Futures imply rates around 2.74% for the end of next year, compared to 2.93% early this month. As a result, yields on 10-year Treasurys declined to 3.08 percent, from a recent top of 3.25 percent while the currency market saw the dollar fade early gains while the pound rebounded from sharp losses last week as Theresa May prepared to appeal to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal as the premier fights almost insurmountable Parliamentary opposition. May said on Sunday that toppling her would risk delaying Brexit as she faces the possibility of a leadership challenge from within her own party. With both pro-EU and pro-Brexit lawmakers unhappy with the draft agreement, it is not clear that she will be able to win the backing of parliament, increasing the risk that Britain will leave the EU without a deal. Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars held on to their declines after Mike Pence's attack on China this weekend fueled concern Sino-U.S. trade tensions will worsen; the yen neared a month-to-date high on the risk-aversion, onshore yuan weakened for the first time in five days. Treasuries slipped while European bonds were mixed, with core notes slipping and peripherals rising led by Italy. In the U.S., trading activity may be thinned before the Thanksgiving holiday later this week. In commodity markets, gold found support from the drop in the dollar and held at $1,1220.19. Oil prices suffered their sixth straight week of losses last week, but climbed toward $57 a barrel in New York on Monday. Bitcoin dropped further below $6,000, at one point touching a one-year intraday low.
S&P500 futures down 0.2% to 2,738.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 359.37
MXAP up 0.4% to 152.43
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 488.43
Nikkei up 0.7% to 21,821.16
Topix up 0.5% to 1,637.61
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 26,372.00
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,703.51
Sensex up 0.9% to 35,758.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,693.66
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,100.56
German 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 0.391%
Euro up 0.04% to $1.1419
Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 3.119%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.632%
Brent futures up 0.4% to $67.05/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,219.37
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.41
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg:
Theresa May will appeal to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal, as she fights almost insurmountable opposition in Parliament and a possible leadership challenge. You do the math: Can May get her Brexit deal through Parliament?
Vice President Mike Pence sharpened U.S. attacks on China during a week of summits that ended Sunday, most notably with a call for nations to avoid loans that would leave them indebted to Beijing
An Asia- Pacific summit ended in tumult after the U.S. and China failed to agree on language in a final statement, the latest sign that a trade war between the world’s biggest economies won’t end anytime soon
The European Central Bank shouldn’t rush to spell out how long it plans to reinvest proceeds from bonds maturing under its asset-purchases program, said French policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau
President Donald Trump said he wouldn’t stop acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker if he curtails special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible collusion by Trump campaign officials with Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election
U.K. house asking prices fell from a year earlier for the first time since 2011, led by declines in London and among the most expensive properties.
President Donald Trump said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has denied to him perhaps five times any role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the U.S. may never know whether he was involved in the murder
Trump’s famously opaque business will face a bracing new reality next year when House Democrats hit it with a flurry of subpoenas for the first time
The European Central Bank shouldn’t rush to spell out how long it plans to reinvest proceeds from bonds maturing under its asset-purchases program, said French policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau
The European Union is hammering out the first bloc-wide rules to prevent foreign investments from threatening national security, as Chinese acquisitions foster political unease
Hedge funds’ wagers against West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude soared for a seventh straight week, the longest global short-selling streak in data going back to 2011
Asian equity markets began the week somewhat cautious on lingering trade concerns and after disunity at the APEC summit over the weekend which failed to agree on a joint communique for the first time in history due to US-China tensions. ASX 200 (-0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) traded mixed in which nearly all of Australia’s sectors were in the red aside from miners, while Nikkei 225 was positive as participants digested mixed trade data which showed a jump in imports. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.9%) were choppy amid trade-related uncertainty following the verbal jabs between US and China in which Chinese President Xi warned that countries which embraced protectionism were doomed to fail and US Vice President Pence later commented the US could more than double the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Finally, 10yr JGBs futures rose to match the YTD high as they tracked the recent upside in T-notes and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 800bln of JGBs in the belly to the short-end of the curve. APEC summit ended without an agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history after China refused to sign amid US-China tensions, while there had been comments from Chinese President Xi Jinping that countries which embraced protectionism were "doomed to failure" and US Vice President Pence later commented that he was prepared to "more than double" the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Top Asian News - China’s Ping An Buys Stake in German Fintech Incubator Finleap - Japan Bank Shares Fall Most in Month After U.S. Yields Drop - Asian Markets Come out of Their Torpor as Stock Gains Accelerate - An Accountant Stirs Debate as India Central Bank Board Meets Major European indices are in the green, with the outperforming FTSE MIB (+1.1%) bolstered by news that Luigi Gubitosi has been appointed as the new CEO of Telecom Italia (+4.3%). The SMI (-0.2%) gave up initial gains and is lagging its peers, weighed on Swatch (-4.0%) and Richemont (-1.4%) following unfavourable price outlook for both by Bank of America Merill Lynch. Sectors are mostly all in the green, with outperformance in telecom names, while energy names are lower given pullback in oil prices in recent trade and consumer discretionary names are weighed on by Renault (-7.0%), with the company shares extending losses following reports that Nissan’s boss has been arrested in Japan regarding allegations of financial violations. Renault shares are hit given the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance. Elsewhere, BPost (-5.7%) shares are hit following a downgrade at HSBC, while Tele2 (+1.8%), are near the top of the Stoxx 600 after being upgraded at Berenberg. Top European News
Villeroy Sees No Need to Define Reinvestments Length in December
U.K. Housing Woes Deepen With First Asking-Price Drop Since 2011
EU Set to Tighten Rules on Foreign Investment to Fend Off China
New Telecom Italia Boss Deepens Activist Shareholder’s Clout
In FX, the Greenback has regained some composure following its downturn at the end of last week amidst soft US data and cautious if not concerned or outright dovish Fed rhetoric (Clarida conscious about contagion from slower global growth, Kaplan envisaging headwinds from rising debt and Harker opposed to a December rate hike), but the DXY remains capped below a key Fib level (96.590) and the Dollar overall is mixed vs major counterparts.
NZD/AUD/CAD- All on the back foot against their US peer and underperforming other G10 currencies, with the Kiwi retreating below 0.6850 and undermined by cross flows as Aud/Nzd rebounds further from recent lows towards 1.0700 and Aud/Usd holds above 0.7300 in wake of last week’s strong Aussie jobs data.
GBP- The Pound has derived some comfort, or is simply just relieved that the Tory uprising and challenge to UK PM May has not reached the minimum level required to trigger a no confidence vote and adding another potential spanner in the Brexit works. However, the situation remains far from stable and certain given that Parliament still has to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and the room for further renegotiation with the EU looks limited at best ahead of Sunday’s Summit and more meetings planned in the run up to try and sound out whether there is scope to tweak elements of the draft. Cable has tested and marginally breached last Friday’s peak at 1.2877, but far from convincingly amidst supply ahead of 1.2900, and with the 21 DMA also representing formidable tech resistance just above the big figure (1.2918-20). Meanwhile, EuGbp has not pulled back too far below 0.8900, as the single currency holds firm in its own right.
EM- The Rand has made an encouraging start to the week, with a break through 14.0000 vs the Usd exposing recent peaks and momentum to re-test 13.8700 ahead of 13.6000 (50% Fib).
In commodities, Brent (+0.5%) and WTI (+0.1%) are in positive territory, albeit off highs, following market expectations that Saudi Arabia will steer OPEC and Russia to cut oil supply. Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Novak said the country is planning to sign an output agreement with OPEC at their December 6th meeting in Vienna. Overnight gains in the complex were driven by reports that Saudi is said to want oil prices around USD 80.00/bbl. Elsewhere, Iranian President Rouhani emerged on state TV and stated that the US has failed to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero and Iran will continue to sell their crude. Conversely, Gold (-0.2%) prices fell this morning, with traders citing profit taking from last week’s gains, while Palladium is nearing parity with gold as an all-time high of USD 1185.4/oz was hit on Friday. Separately, copper is lower following tension between the US and China at the APEC summit which ended without an agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history. It's a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note being the Euro Area and the November NAHB housing market index reading in the US. Away from that, the Fed's Williams is due to speak in the afternoon, while BoJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau and his predecessor, Noyer, will all speak at the Europlace Financial Forum. Euro Area finance ministers are also due to gather in Brussels to seek to make progress on Franco-German plans to shore up the currency union. US Event Calendar
10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 67, prior 68
10:45am: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Q&Ain the Bronx
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Brexit was left in a bit of phoney war this weekend. We’re no closer to a leadership contest for Mrs May but it could still happen at any point. The Sun -citing their “extensive investigation” - has concluded that 42 lawmakers have sent letters of no-confidence in the PM (48 needed). Overall though more Conservative MPs are disliking the deal - and will vote against it - than will ask for a leadership battle in our opinion. The consensus that is forming amongst the Conservative MPs who dislike the Withdrawal Agreement is that it can be improved upon. This time next week we will have just had the Sunday EU summit to sign off their side of the deal but its not clear how meaningful tweaks could be made before this and before the agreement goes before UK Parliament in the next 2-3 weeks. The only thing that could be fleshed out is more on the future relationship between the UK and Europe as Mrs May travels to Brussels this week to try to progress on this. That might appease some MPs but likely not enough to help the vote pass. As such my personal view is that May stays on as leader, the EU offer no concession, the vote doesn’t get through Parliament and then the fun and games start. The UK may go back to Europe and ask for specific concessions at this point or we may end up with a path towards a hard Brexit or a second referendum. Quite binary options. For the EU maybe the gamble is to offer nothing and assume the UK Parliament eventually offers a second referendum and voters eventually decide to stay. This increases the risk of a cliff-edge hard Brexit but also one where no Brexit happens at all. This story has a lot of legs left in it. There was lots in the press this weekend about Brexit but interestingly for me as a credit strategist by day, there was also a fair bit of negative press about credit with some of the more sensational articles suggesting that credit could soon blow up financial markets due to (amongst other things) the weight of US BBBs about to swamp the HY market, record levels of Cov-lite issuance and due to record high US corporate leverage. For us there needs to some perspective. We have been on the underweight side of credit all year, more weighted to a US underweight of late but that’s been more of a valuation play than over too much concerns about immediate credit quality. The US economy remains strong and credit deterioration is likely to remain idiosyncratic until it rolls over. At that point we will have big problems though and last week’s activity made us more confident liquidity will be bad when the cycle turns as we moved a fairly large amount on nervousness as much as anything else. GE, PG&E, plunging oil and the factors discussed above provided a jolt but we don’t think this is enough for now to impact the economy so credit will probably stabilise. However once there is actual broad economic weakness, this last week will be a dress rehearsal for the problems ahead and there will be little two-way activity with spreads gapping wider. However that’s for further down the cycle. For now credit’s main problem has been it hadn’t responded enough to the pick up in vol. The good news is that this is starting to catch-up and correct. Last week, EU non-fin. IG spread widened by 13bps and HY by 45bps while those on US IG by 14bps and HY by 49bps. Big moves relative to a small down week in equities. Looking ahead to the highlights for this week, I’d imagine if you’re in the US this will revolve around family, friends and perhaps Turkey as you sit down for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Outside of that we get the flash PMIs around the globe on Friday which in a period of nervousness about the global growth outlook will be scrutinised in thin post holiday trading. Black Friday will also mark the start of Xmas shopping season for retailers. Also worth noting is the European Commission's opinions on the budget plans of the Euro Area countries on Wednesday. While the EC formally has three weeks to provide an opinion on Italy's new fiscal plan following their budget resubmission last week, it's possible that they will issue this for Italy alongside this and thus kick starting the EDP process. This morning in Asia, markets have kicked off the week on a positive note with the Nikkei (+0.48%), Hang Seng (+0.40%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) all up along with most Asian markets. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.33%) are pointing towards a weaker start. In terms of overnight data releases, the UK Rightmove house prices index fell -0.2% yoy (-1.7% mom), first dip since 2011, led by declines in London (-2.4% yoy). Japan’s October adjusted trade balance stood at –JPY 302.7bn (vs. –JPY 48.3bn) as growth in imports (+19.9% yoy vs. +14.1% yoy expected) outpaced the growth in exports (+8.2% yoy vs. +8.9% yoy expected). In other news, the US Vice President Pence delivered some sharp rhetoric on China over the weekend where he called upon countries to avoid taking debt from China as that would leave them indebted to China. He also added that the US wasn’t in a rush to end the trade war and would “not change course until China changes its ways.” Elsewhere, the APEC summit ended in disarray on Sunday after the US and China failed to agree on a joint statement, reflecting tensions due to the ongoing trade war. This is the first time since the summit began in 1993 that no joint statement was issued. Looking back briefly now to last week before we focus on the full day-byday week ahead. Friday was an eventful day for market-moving rhetoric from policymakers, highlighted by Fed Vice Chair Clarida and President Trump. First, the dollar shed -0.52% after Clarida discussed the global economy and said there “is some evidence it’s slowing.” Two-year treasury yields rallied -3.8bps (-11.0bps on the week) and the market removed 6bps of Fed hikes through the end of next year (priced out a total of 16bps on the week). This came despite Clarida’s other remarks, which emphasised the strong US economy and his support for moving policy to a “neutral” level, consistent with the FOMC’s projections. Later in the session, Chicago Fed President Evans said that he too wants to move policy to neutral, and then another 50bps or so beyond that level. Later on Friday, President Trump injected optimism on the trade policy front by telling reporters that China wants to make a deal and that he may not institute further tariffs. China has apparently offered a list of potential concessions, which could prove to be the basis of a trade deal at the 30 November G20 summit. Even though unnamed White House sources subsequently tried to soften expectations, the market rallied with the S&P 500 up +0.22% (-1.31% on the week). The DOW and Russell 2000 closed -2.22% and -1.42% on the week, though they both rallied on the President’s comments as well (+0.22% and +0.49% on Friday, respectively). After Pence’s weekend comments we should probably discount some of the above optimism. Other markets were already closed when President Trump’s comments boosted sentiment. The STOXX 600 closed the week -2.20% (-0.20% on Friday), while UK equities outperformed marginally, with the FTSE 100 shedding only -1.29% on the week (-0.34% Friday). This reflected the weaker pound, which retreated -1.13% versus the dollar (+0.41% Friday) and -1.83% versus the euro (its worst such week since July 2017, and -0.38% on Friday). Asian equities were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite advancing +3.09% (+0.41% Friday) on trade optimism and the Nikkei down -2.56% (-0.57% Friday). German Bunds rallied -4.0bps last week, while peripheral spreads widened slightly with Italy leading the way. BTPs sold off +8.8bps (flat on Friday) as the government continued to escalate its confrontation with the European Commission. It's a fairly quiet start to the week on Monday with the only data of note being September construction output data for the Euro Area and the November NAHB housing market index reading in the US. Away from that, the Fed's Williams is due to speak in the afternoon, while BoJ Governor Kuroda, Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau and his predecessor, Noyer, will all speak at the Europlace Financial Forum. Euro Area finance ministers are also due to gather in Brussels to seek to make progress on Franco-German plans to shore up the currency union.
Global Markets Rebound On Renewed Trade Hopes, Oil Slides For Record 12th Day
After Monday's vicious Veteran's Day selloff, which took place with the cash bond market closed, world markets have regained their footing as European stocks and S&P 500 futures modestly higher, recovering some of the previous session’s losses on renewed hopes (how many times have we heard this already) for progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute following a report that China's vice premier Liu He is meeting Steven Mnuchin in DC, even as Asian shares dropped overall, led by Japan's 2.1% drop as tech stocks were hit on iPhone demand fears. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index rose for the first time in three days, with telecoms leading the way after Vodafone announced better than expected quarterly results, although the index was off its earlier highs. Contracts on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all firmer, and after sliding as low as 2,720 on Monday, S&P futures were 0.6% higher. Focusing on Europe, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. No material changes are expected. According to Deutsche Bank, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now any grand bargain is far away. Earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Other Asian indexes fared less well, and slid with Apple suppliers under pressure after the iPhone maker fell on signs of a deteriorating sales outlook. Meanwhile, underwhelming Chinese new loan data, ongoing Brexit concerns and Italian jitters have tempered enthusiasm. Germany's DAX outperforms peers this morning, while Italy's FTSE MIB traded mixed ahead of today's budget proposal deadline while local Italian banks are managing small gains. Even as risk assets enjoyed a modest rebound, the commodity rout continued as WTI fell for a twelfth day, the longest losing streak on record after Trump criticized top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut output, and was headed for its lowest close of 2018. Treasuries climbed even as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell from an 18-month high as traders took profit on the greenback. The yen reversed to a loss as risk appetite slowly grew. The Britain’s pound pared some losses from the past three days after Prime Minister Theresa May said talks with the European Union were in the “endgame” and data showing U.K. wage growth accelerated. Elsewhere, the euro recovered from its weakest against the dollar since June 2017, with Italy due to resubmit its budget. The country’s bonds pared some losses after a debt auction. Emerging market equities and currencies were steady. In a curious development overnight, major state-owned Chinese banks were seen selling dollars at around 6.97 per dollar in the onshore spot foreign exchange market in early trade on Tuesday, traders told Bloomberg in the latest attempt by Beijing to arrest sharp losses in the local currency. The onshore spot market opened at 6.9681 per dollar, weakening to a low of 6.9703 at one point in early deals. “Big banks were selling (dollars) to defend the yuan,” said one of the traders. Traders suspect the authorities are keen to prevent the yuan from weakening too sharply before U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping’s meeting later this month. So is the selling over for now? With trade worries hanging over markets for months and clouding the economic outlook, the Liu He came at an appropriate time, while comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Singapore Tuesday hinted at a more optimistic outlook; even so sentiment remains fragile as the Fed prepares to hike rates in just over a month. “We always talk about that proverbial wall of worry and that wall right now is pretty high,” David Kudla, chief executive officer of Mainstay Capital Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “We have the issues in China with the growth concerns there, we have the issues in Europe with the battle between Italy and the EU, the U.K. getting ready for Brexit. There is some guidance lower on earnings, and a Federal Reserve that is going to raise rates.” In other news, Bloomberg reported that the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House which are undergoing interagency review and are sign of US administration's increasing frustration at EU and Japan over lack of progress on auto trade issues, while the Section 232 recommendations will be discussed at White House trade meeting on Tuesday. In the latest Brexit news, PM May said Brexit talks are now reaching their "endgame" and that both sides working hard to reach an agreement but added that significant issues still remain and that the government will not accept a deal at any cost. Furthermore, there were reports that UK PM May had rejected the latest draft Brexit deal with the EU as it didn’t provide a clear exit from the customs union if the EU began acting in bad faith in discussions regarding a future trade agreement. Expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism and monthly budget statement. Home Depot and Tyson are among companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures up 0.4% to 2,737.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 364.03
MXAP down 1% to 150.18
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 480.47
Nikkei down 2.1% to 21,810.52
Topix down 2% to 1,638.45
Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 25,792.87
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,654.88
Sensex up 0.8% to 35,083.73
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 5,834.23
Kospi down 0.4% to 2,071.23
German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.395%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1239
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $69.21/bbl
Italian 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 3.066%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.607%
Brent futures down 2.2% to $68.57/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,197.54
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.63
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He have resumed talks on trade, and a potential Washington visit by Liu is being considered before the nations’ top leaders meet later this month
Goldman Sachs downward slide on a multibillion-dollar Malaysian fraud culminated Monday with Goldman’s shares having their biggest drop since 2011
President Donald Trump’s hardening line on immigration sets him on a collision course with House Democrats that is likely to shape the next presidential campaign.
Brexit negotiators are working through the night in an effort to reach a deal, but the final stage of the talks is proving “immensely difficult,” U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said
Italy’s government may offer the European Commission a minor concession when it resubmits its budget after an unprecedented rejection last month
Major suppliers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone fell Tuesday as investors fretted that one of the most important product lines in the technology sector was seeing weak demand
Major Asian equity markets mostly followed suit to the sell-off on Wall Street where tech led the declines after Apple shares dropped 5% following an outlook cut by supplier Lumentum Holdings and with energy names hit again after oil posted an 11th consecutive decline. ASX 200 (-1.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) weakened from the open with the tech sector the underperformer in the region as another Apple supplier Japan Display reported a loss for H1 and downgraded its outlook. Furthermore, Japanese exporters suffered from recent flows into the JPY and large automakers were pressured after the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially supported as the broad risk averse tone spurred a flight to safety, but then failed to hold on to the marginal gains as prices mirrored a pullback in T-notes despite stronger 30yr auction results. Top Asian News - Semen Indonesia Buys LafargeHolcim Arm in $1.75 Billion Deal - MUFG Chief Warns on Outlook Even After Raising Profit Target - Hong Kong’s World-Beating IPO Market Starts to Show Cracks - China’s Credit Growth Slumped in October as Debt Sales Slowed All major European indices are in the green, with the DAX (+0.6%) out in front, led by the likes of Lufthansa (+2.4%) who are benefiting from lower oil prices and Bayer (+0.3%) who presented an increase in earnings and confirmed their outlook. FTSE MIB (-0.3%) is lagging its peers weighed on by Telecom Italia (-1.4%) who removed their CEO to the dismay of Vivendi (23.9% shareholder). Italian financial names are also softer ahead of today’s budget re-submission deadline. Sectors are predominantly higher with outperformance in Telecoms post-earnings from Vodafone (+9.0%). Energy names lag, in-fitting with price action in the complex. Regarding individual equities, BTG (+9.2%) are leading the Euro Stoxx 600 after presenting an increase in half year revenue and operating profit. Elior Group (+8.0%) are off best levels but remain supported by news that they have hired advisors to initiate the sale of their catering business. Babcock (-2.5%) are under scrutiny from the Ministry of Defence over their handling of a contract relating to the UK’s Trident Submarines. Top European News
U.K. Wages Rise Most Since 2008 Amid Tight Labor Market
Nyrstar Plunges on Growing Speculation of Debt Restructuring
Italy’s Carige Thrown $360 Million Lifeline by Other Banks
In FX, An almost clear and defining line between the ‘so called’ risk or high beta/yield currencies vs safer-havens, as US-China trade tensions ease somewhat amidst reports of constructive discussions between key officials, while the YUAN also pares some losses with the aid of intervention via local banks overnight (said to have been defending 6.9700 vs the Usd). Hence, the DXY and broad Dollar are off Monday’s peaks, with the latter only maintaining gains/positive momentum vs the JPY above 114.00 and CHF (to a lesser degree) over 1.0100. However, the index remains underpinned around the 97.500 mark and still poised to build on yesterday’s new ytd high at 97.704 given high levels of ongoing uncertainty and global risks, with only one major chart hurdle seen ahead of 98.000 (97.871 Fib resistance). NZD/AUD - Outperforming on the aforementioned US-China ‘understanding’, with the Kiwi staying within striking distance of 0.6750 and the latter not far from 0.7200, but perhaps capped by mega option expiry interest at the strike (1.6 bn), while still feeling the adverse effects of bearish cross-positioning as Aud/Nzd inches further below 1.0700. GBP/EUCAD - All holding up relatively well, or at least consolidating off worst levels, with the Pound retesting 1.2900 vs the Greenback and 0.8700 vs the single currency on hopes if not high expectations of a Brexit breakthrough in time before tomorrow’s deadline. Note, some independent support from Sterling via firm UK wage data, but limited. The Eur is just keeping its head above 1.1200 vs the Usd awaiting Italy’s budget resubmission to the EU that is widely expected to reveal a concession or compromise, but no white flag. Option barriers at the big figure are underpinning the headline pair, though by the same token 1 bn expiry interest at 1.1250 are also keeping upside attempts in check. Looking at the Loonie, only fleeting intraday recoveries in oil prices are keeping the commodity unit pressured and it is struggling to stem losses beyond 1.3250. In commodities, WTI (-2.2%) and Brent (-2.1%) are in the red after a failed intervention by US President Trump who tweeted that oil prices should be lower, and he hopes Saudi and OPEC do not cut oil production. Note, the monthly OPEC report to be published today at 1115GMT. Gold (+0.1%) is marginally up after reaching 16-month highs yesterday. Of note, traders are gathering in Shanghai for Asia Copper Week, as copper prices have fallen by approximately 17% this year, on track for their worst year since 2015. Intra-day, copper and other metals have moved higher following reports that Liu He, China’s top trade negotiator, may visit Washington in preparation for Trump Xi talks. OPEC monthly report: OPEC crude production rose 127k bpd in October to average 32.9mln bpd, according to secondary sources. Crude oil output increased mostly in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola, while production declined in IR Iran, Venezuela, Kuwait and Nigeria. In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.5mln bpd, a downward revision of 40k bpd from last month’s projection. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.29mln bpd, a minor downward adjustment of 70k bpd from the previous month’s assessment. In terms of the day ahead, the November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. Today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this. US Event Calendar
6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 108, prior 107.9
10am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Conference on Immigration
10am: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on AI and the New Financial Landscape
2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $100.0b deficit, prior $63.2b deficit
2:20pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Fintech Conference
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap In this morning’s FT, DB’s Head of Research and Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau has penned a hard hitting op-ed on Italy. The crux of the argument is that Europe must cut a grand bargain with Italy and that another costly sovereign debt crisis is inevitable unless the confrontational approach of the EC gives way to greater co-operation. Italy has actually been a frugal member of the single currency with a cumulative primary surplus every year outside of the GFC. However, these surpluses have simply helped finance the interest on the legacy debt and debt/GDP has still climbed. Meanwhile, the associated spending cuts and austerity required to run a primary surplus have lowered the standard of living for the population and led us to the political situation we find ourselves at today. To cut a long story short the grand bargain is in effect the ESM firepower helping to substantially lower Italy’s funding costs, allow for more public expenditure (e.g. infrastructure) in return for Italy undergoing structural reforms. A copy of the unabridged op-ed can be found here or in today’s FT. Interestingly, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. We expect no material changes. Our economists yesterday published a piece ( link ) looking at the next steps and conclude that, as contagion has been limited for now, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now we’re far away from the grand bargain our Chief Economist thinks will eventually be needed. As well as Italy it feels like there’s a lot to report today, which is not usually the case after a US holiday. Indeed those handful of Monday US holidays each year are usually an excuse for us to have an extra 10-15 minutes lie in the morning safe in the knowledge that not much will have happened the day before. However, the alarm clock was actually set a bit earlier this morning after a difficult start to the week, including a further slump for the once biggest company in the world, and a continuation of the recent under-performance in many of the current largest companies in the world within the tech sector. To recap, Veteran’s Day thin equity trading saw the NASDAQ (-2.78%) and NYSE FANG (-4.11%) indices leading the declines followed closely by the S&P 500 (-1.97%), DOW (-2.32%) and Russell 2000 (-1.98%). Amazingly that is the 9th time this year the big 3 bourses (NASDAQ, S&P 500 and DOW) have fallen at least -1.90% on the same day. It didn’t happen in 2017, and only happened 11 times in 2015 and 2016 combined. The VIX also climbed just over 3pts yesterday to edge back above 20. The tech sector was clearly at the heart of yesterday’s selloff with a -5.04% decline for Apple, sparked by big falls for the company’s suppliers on the back of demand concerns. Apple’s share price is now back below $200 after spending 72 consecutive trading days above that level. That move for Apple resulted in the small matter of $49bn of value being wiped from the company. By comparison General Electric lost just over $5bn yesterday but it was arguably the bigger headline grabber. Indeed the shares slumped -6.88% (-10.02% at the lows) after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage. Shares hit levels first seen in 1995 yesterday and have only been lower since, very briefly, during the financial crisis. For a bit of perspective, the market cap of GE now is $69.5bn and it’s the 80th largest company in the S&P 500. Go back to August 2003 and it was the largest company in the index (and regularly the world between 1993-2005) at a market cap of $296bn, with $12bn of daylight to Microsoft in second place. The tech giant has since grown to be a $826bn company well over 10 times the size. GE’s market cap actually peaked in August 2000 at $594bn before tumbling first in the tech crash and then the GFC. In credit GE is a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices. It’s recently been downgraded into the BBB bucket but as recently as September was trading 20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that month and now trade up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG. This problem for GE has come at an interesting time as much discussion in recent months has been about BBBs as a % of the size of the HY market. According to Nick Burns in my team, post the downgrades of the automakers in 2005, US BBBs fell to 99% of the size of the HY market from a peak of 170% in 2001. Since 2005, BBBs have been steadily rising as a percentage of HY climbing back above the previous peak in 2014 (175%) before extending that growth to a current level of 274%. It’s more difficult to compare EU BBBs to HY given the infancy of the EUR HY market pre-2004. But from a low of 219% BBBs have grown to 340% of EUR HY. So large BBB companies with a deteriorating credit story are prone to additional widening pressure as investors fear the risks of an eventual downgrade to HY and a swamping of paper into that market. This isn’t helping GE at the moment and may be a dress rehearsal for what happens for weaker and large BBB issuers in the next recession. Brexit headlines were slightly overshadowed but make no mistake, we are getting to the point when binary outcomes are coming closer. Up until the end of last week I thought we’d get a deal agreed this week and then Parliament would be 50/50 as to whether they’d vote in favour of it. However, since last Friday if you've read all the relevant UK press articles its been hard to find much enthusiasm for the expected deal from anyone on any side of the debate within Parliament. At this stage I’m not sure I know what plan B is? Will this be a repeat of TARP back in 2008 and Parliament requires two goes at it? Problem with this is that it’s not clear that the EU is going to offer anything different on a second run at it. In terms of trading, the pound originally pared losses in the early afternoon yesterday as the EU’s Barnier confirmed yesterday that although an agreement had still not been reached the main elements of an exit treaty are ready to present to the UK cabinet according to the FT. Sterling gave up the Barnier related gains on the below Buzzfeed news and fell -0.93% on the day. This news was that Brexit secretary Raab is leading some cabinet ministers towards telling Mrs May that the EU offer on the table is unacceptable. Mrs May herself last night said talks were “in the endgame”. The general view is that unless we have a deal by the end of tomorrow, the November EU summit is unlikely. As we know a deal is pretty much on the table however the issue remains whether or not the UK can run with it first based on whether the cabinet will accept it and secondly whether Parliament can. At the moment we are struggling to get past the first hurdle let alone the second. There was supposed to be a cabinet meeting on Brexit today but its status has been played down. This morning in Asia, markets outside of China/HK are weak but off the lows of the session. The Nikkei (-2.19%), and Kospi (-0.46%) are all down along with most Asian markets but after opening equally weak the Shanghai Comp (+0.86%) and Hang Seng (+0.33%) are rallying hard from the lows. More positive trade noises from US VP Pence and Chinese officials in the last hour have helped. Sentiment didn’t start well though as last night Bloomberg reported that the White House is circulating a draft report by the US Commerce Department over whether to impose tariffs on automobile imports to protect national security while adding that the President Trump is scheduled to meet with senior members of his trade team today to discuss how to proceed on potential tariffs. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.44%) are pointing towards a more positive start and as an interesting aside the BoJ’s asset holding are now (JPY 553.6 tn) greater than Japan’s nominal GDP (JPY 552.8tn as of end June). To put this in perspective the Fed’s assets are about 20% of US GDP, while the ECB’s holdings are equal to around 40% of the euro-zone economy. This US and Asian weakness follows on from earlier yesterday where Europe also struggled. The STOXX 600 ended the day down -1.01% with the tech sector sinking -3.66%. The DAX (-1.77%) fell even more and it’s amazing that it’s ahead of the FTSE MIB for one of the biggest total return declines in Europe this year of the main bourses (-12.33% vs. -10.37% respectively). Remarkable given that they are probably at the extreme ends economically within Europe. Even oil couldn’t eke out a gain after being up after Asia closed post the Saudi production cut story from Sunday. President Trump’s tweet criticising Saudi Arabia’s planned production cut weighed on prices late in the US session. By the close a near -3% fall had added to what is now an 11-day successive slump, extending the record run we discussed yesterday with data back to 1983. Elsewhere bond markets in Europe (Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day) were quiet with Bunds -0.9bps lower in yield and BTPs +3.5bps higher. In terms of the day ahead, shortly after this hits your emails we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany. Soon after that we’ll get the preliminary Q3 wages data in France before the focus turns to here in the UK with the September and October employment stats. The November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. As noted above, today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this.
Do you think the Great Tribulation will happen in this century?
I am asking non believers and trinitarians not to comment, if you start a debate in this thread about the existence of God, the trinity, etc. I will ban you, this is a serious thread that will stay on topic.
" 'Zion's Watch Tower' has, we believe, JEHOVAH for its backer, and while this is the case it will never beg nor petition men for support. When He who says: 'All the gold and silver of the mountains are mine,' fails to provide necessary funds, we will understand it to be time to suspend the publication."
CT Russell. God's Kingdom Rules ch.18 Stephen Lett said himself that Mother has more money leaving than coming in. There is a reason for the switch to tablets, and less content heavy magazines. They just sold the Brooklyn properties because they need the money. Now there are rumors that the preaching work is going to end and the pharisees are going to announce the great Tribulation is upon us. What does this have to do with the actual great Tribulation? Up until a couple years ago, the official teaching was that the "Lord's" day began in 1914. Now that day has been renamed to Jehovah's Day, even though they still claim we are in the last days. If they proclaim the Great Tribulation is here, they may very well fulfill that prophecy 2x. Let's assume that the Great Tribulation is WW3, because it has to be cut short or else no flesh would be saved. It is a well known fact that WW3 will be fought with nukes, some being equal to or larger than the tsar Bomba, this world War has the potential to fulfill that prophecy (great Tribulation being cut short). Perhaps we are on the brink of the great Tribulation or perhaps this is just another phase? If in fact the man of lawlessness is the Watchtower. I would expect WW3 to begin some time after they have announced the great Tribulation is here. This lie about the presence of Christ would still have to be active at some point when he really returns, or not. But there is a good chance that the 1914 doctrine might still be alive when Christ returns, what else does 2 thessalonians 2 mean when it says that they will not be saved because they took pleasure in unrighteousness? If 1914 expires, then the lie manifested itself into nothing and JWs would have repented from teaching and believing it, so why would Christ return to condemn repentant worshipers to death? I think, since this stuff surrounding Rutherford and spiritism is true, and the GB has made weird comments about there being undeniable proof that Christ began ruling in 1914, that they may have had a sign or prediction shown to them through some sort of spiritism, all it would take is an apparition or automatic writing by demon pretending to be an angel of light to mislead them. They would never suspect Satan to be misleading them, because they think they are anointed by Jehovah. OR, they have the arrogance to announce the great Tribulation is here because of all attacks they are getting from all sides, no angel of light being involved. Either way, it doesn't matter, if they say the great Tribulation is here, and WW3 begins afterwards (see Trump vs North Korea) they will become gods in the eyes of JWs, "surely they are appointed by Jehovah! They predicted the great Tribulation, etc."
Think about it, people have predicted that end of the world every year since Christ. Eventually someone is going to be right. When i used to gamble on forex pairs a few years ago (euUSD, etc.) I would place a bet in a binary options Broker. If I was betting that price would be above my execution line at the expiration of time, I would win, if it wasn't I would lose all the money placed on the bet. But if you keep betting that price will be higher each minute that passes, eventually you will be right, Because it is impossible that the pair will drop for eternity. This is called the martingale. I once martingaled 12 times before I was right and won back all the money I lost, I quit after that and trust me Jehovah punished me for my recklessness. Anyways, it entirely possible that all these false prophets will eventually be right about the end of the world after guessing for two thousand years. They have essentially used the martingale method I their prophecies, so the Watchtower could end up predicting the great Tribulation, being right about the timing but wrong about the reason.
JWs will be so convinced that the man of lawlessness is appointed by God, that he makes himself a god in God's Temple. Then when Revelation 11 begins, they will reject these two witnesses. And so, when Christ returns they will be judged because they did not take pleasure in righteousness. This is all an opinion of how the chain of events could play out based on the information available right now. What are your opinions about the great Tribulation? Some have said that Christ returns and then the 2 witnesses are appointed, I don't know how they come to that conclusion, but if you know, please share.
Before you Trade – Binary Options Basic Strategy That Anyone Can Use
Despite its simplicity and the opportunity to make high returns making just easy yes/no type investment decisions, a binary trader can give themselves a distinct edge and an increased chance of trading success in a number of ways. The very basic strategy you see in this chapter can be adhered to and learnt by anyone with little or no experience in financial trading, yet can still have a significant impact on the overall profit or loss of the trader. Binary Options Basic Strategy Steps https://preview.redd.it/jqx7wia09jz01.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f7aad9001b96b626f3bd882d79cc3da073f1d9f Learn the Assets The choice of assets in which to trade can run into the hundreds with that number increasing all the time. Each asset has its own characteristics, so it is best advised to commit the time and energy to specialize in just a few assets than try to understand the complexities of all of them. The more you understand about an asset, the easier it is to explain and predict why it is moving in one particular