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Lessons learned - Crypto and Divorce - In January I was a millionaire thanks to BTC, then my wife divorces me and now I have $30,000 AMA
Crossreferencing u/nanoissuperior He wrote earlier today: https://www.reddit.com/CryptoCurrency/comments/a3n6uw/in_january_i_was_a_millionaire_thanks_to_nano_now/ Title: In January I was a millionaire thanks to Nano, now I have $25,000 AMA I was replying to his post, but my reply ended up being a bit too large as a reply and steered off-topic, albeit an interesting one. So I decided to make it its own post, because there may be a good lessons to be learned and hoping some will come forward with good information to be shared. I hope it can help anyone on this sub avoid the costly mistakes that I made. Here it goes: FLAIR: LEGAL (not in the list) ---- u/nanoissuperior are you who I think you are? I won't give out any further identifying clues, but I happen to know someone in the exact same position that could have written that exact same headline. If you read the first paragraph, you'll know if you know me. The person I know bought Nano really early, based on a tip from a friend. I got in much later. By the time he told me it had already spiked to the $5 range, when I ended up buying. I then sold in the $20's so it was a good buy nonetheless. We were former colleagues at a large, large software company somewhere in the PNW, I left the company to venture out on my own and try to launch some projects I had in mind and relocated overseas for a few years. We lost contact with each other during my time away, but we connected again during the market runup and started exchanging coin information on a daily basis during the big bull run of late 2017. That was a crazy time.... the market trend was a few degrees short of vertical for pretty much all coins! Hey, guess what? Now that I think about it, I could have written that same headline myself! In January 2018 I was a Millionaire too! Not with Nano, but thanks to purchasing a good chunk of Bitcoin in 2011 at $1.20 each. I ended up a single digit millionaire with what I had left in Bitcoin around January of 2018. And, just like you, today, from all that wealth, I have about $30.000 left, with little to show for. Can we call that even? Although my disaster was not caused entirely by market fluctuation; Mine is a more complex story and I am going to mention it, because hopefully, it could serve as a lesson to be learned for any crypto holder out there, so they don't make the make mistake I made: Don't trust anyone. Always be skeptical and watch out for your own interests. Anyhow, here it goes: After 5 years overseas, I had enough and wanted to come back to the States. My wife stated her preference to stay abroad, but eventually, she conceded albeit reluctantly. We chose a small town in CO to settle, and landed in November of 2017. We had plans to settle down and considered purchasing a home with my/our new fortune, based on the market price during that period. At the same time, I was also hesitant about the inherent tax payments due caused by such large liquidation. I was trying to have to pay taxes as far away as possible. So, I decided to wait till New Year's Eve and started liquidating my crypto on January 1st, 2018 right after midnight. This way, I would have 16 months (till April, 2019) to pay any capital gains taxes, and I was confident at the time that the market would give me that for free, especially at the pace that it was going. I have been an early adopter and have since then acquired the high levels of verification and trading limits per week, with many exchanges, but for a large sum like this, I needed several separate transactions, over the course of several weeks, especially wanting to do it with a US-based exchange that was linked to a US bank accounts, to avoid overseas wire transfers, meaning more fees. (Yes, I did look at all OTC options, but for reasons not relevant to the story, I couldn't make it happen, so I had to use the traditional Exchange channels for asset liquidation). My wife and I, initially had some fundamental disagreements on the gross amount to be spent and the type of property we should be purchasing. I wanted a smaller place, with a denser, younger community, where there'd be kids our son's age for him to play. She insisted that we should go big; we had been traveling for so many years, and we had not been able to call any of our past residences our home. It was time to settle and nest; She convinced me that we should own a property of our own that we would be proud of living in for years. One that we could own outright and would not easily outgrow. We ended up splurging and purchased in cash two luxury cars for ourselves and set our sights on a large dream house in the city's Golf & Country Club, free and clear, for us and our two kids. I don't even play golf, nor do I even like it, but, if it makes her happy and it is within the safe margins of making it happen, I figured, why not? My concerns were largely financial and the numbers were adding up. It was a bit tight against my personal safe margins, but, at the same time, I was imagining to never have to make, or even have to think about, a car or home mortgage payment ever again! Bitcoin is on a roll and there is no sign of it stopping. Fine. Let's do it, before I change my mind. Now, I admit I was extremely lucky with choosing the time of when to sell the assets. I had no clue the market would take a dive in February, and so it seemed to many that I had timed the market perfectly, selling most of my coins in the first two weeks of January of 2018. Many called me a genius for selling at the very top, as if I had some sort of wisdom to know when it would drop; the truth is much less flattering; it was nothing but dumb luck, based on me wanting to pay taxes in 2018 and defer to 2019. Awesome, well done! Yeah? well, slow down, son, not so fast. So, I gather the 7-digit lumpsum in January 2018 and we write a check for the full amount at closing in February on the property of her dreams. A property that could easily be showcased on a luxury Real Estate magazine cover. Also, remember we had just moved back to the United States with just a few suitcases each from overseas. We had no furniture, kitchenware, curtains, TV's, bed sheets, winter clothing and so many other essential things that one usually purchases over time, but which we now had to purchase all at once. Not a problem, Bitcoin had dropped slightly but still well above $15k, I believe, at the time. And, earlier, in January, I had diligently taken this expense into account and effortlessly set aside a small fortune for equipping such a large house with everything we would ever need, brand new. It seemed we were protagonists of one of the Home Makeover Shows. Finally, after working day and night, prepping the house non-stop for days and when every piece of furniture had finally arrived, been unpacked and carried to its corresponding room, it seemed most of the essentials were in place and the hard work was done. I longed for pouring myself a Scotch and to finally sit down and enjoy the fruits of my labor. I head downstairs to the dedicated walk-in, cigar-humidor / wine / Scotch cellar in the basement and grab the better bottle of Whisky of the few bottles of Scotch that I had bought earlier in the week. On my way up, I remember feeling a sense of calm, combined with a glow of excitement and this undescribable profound inner peace, all at once. This was such a rare, natural, non-drug induced high that I had never experienced. It felt so good! This sense of accomplishment of achieving that one thing I had been chasing and longing for my entire life. I had expected I would be chasing this goal for the next 15-20 years, and yet, here it was. No, where I was, was even better than expected! A place where not even my parents, who still have to make their monthly mortgage payments. I had done it! With a smile from ear to ear, I take a deep breath of relief and while looking around the property, I think to myself: "It's perfect, everything is in place and I can finally call this our home. We are so lucky and we are going to live a great life. A life that few can only dream of. So many concerns will be lifted and become redundant. Everything will be better. I'll start a fire in one of our two fireplaces and I am going to begin enjoying my semi-retired life with the first sip of my drink. That will be the official start of our new life". I head over to the kitchen to get a glass and some ice cubes, while I struggle to find which one is the freezer among the many drawers in the kitchen. It was then when I notice a handwritten note placed front and center on the kitchen counter. It is from my wife and read: "There is no easy way to say this, so I am just going to say it..... I want to legally divorce [ ...]". It continued saying that she had taken our son, and had unequivocally decided to leave me. She had already filed the paperwork for divorce and that I should expect to be served in the morning. My bliss had lasted less than 5 minutes and in less than two seconds, it turned dark, somber and I saw it all crumbling down in front of me. Like a long-awaited rocket launch, years in preparation, which then unexpectedly explodes on the launch pad during the countdown. My stomach, heart and everything in my body just sank and melted into one ball of poison in my core. I felt like throwing up. I was completely blindsided; she had played the game all along, not giving me the slightest hint of what was being concocted in the background. She had already engaged with her lawyers weeks beforehand. Her mother was already in town from another state to help out with I don't know what. I had been gaslighted and was threatened by her that I needed to see a psychiatrist due to a change in my temper that I had supposedly developed - my temper was awesome: with BTC at that price? Everything was perfect! But I obeyed and went anyhow (this would later fit her story that she had to leave with the child because she feared for her safety due to my supposed temper for which I was under treatment, therefore, I must have this temper problem, see?). Also, the purchase of the overpriced home also seemed clearly premeditated: Price was the main driver of the decision making; not location, demographics, taxes, etc. It was the wrong neighborhood for us (people much older than us, retired, golfers and no kids the same age as our son to play with). Our house happened to also be the most expensive in the neighborhood. I can see it all so clearly now. See, your crypto coins on the blockchain, are not within the US court's jurisdiction (or, at least, it's quite debatable - a gray area - ask me for the seed and I can tell you that I may have the seed, or that I may not have the seed, I may have the wrong seed, I may have forgotten it, I may have lost it - you can't prove I did not forget, or lost it, etc). However, once it is in FIAT in a bank, or invested in a property, the courts can rule on the asset(s), freeze, disburse or order a sale of the property, etc. It's done all the time. Also, the coins were technically mine, and by definition private property (not to be divided during the divorce) as they were acquired before the marriage. I could not prove its origins (I bought many of them via direct messaging members on Bitcointalk.org and mining rather than exchanges, so no records, receipts or nothing to prove otherwise: the big exchanges like BitStamp and Coinbase didn't start operations till 2013, if I m not mistaken. Instead, I would talk to one of the forum members offering coins we'd agree on a price, I'd send a check to wherever the individual seller instructed me to (Russia, Bulgaria, Japan, UK. etc) and the coins would be deposited to whatever address I provided. Yes, it was quite crude at the time. However, once I converted my coins to cash and used that cash to buy a property for the benefit of the family, it became common property and thus she then had rights to a portion of it when divided between the two parties should a divorce occur - which ended up being almost 3/4 of all assets. I was robbed in broad daylight. By the one person, I trusted with my life. The one you should trust with your life. Your life partner. And while I was in complete denial, trying to bargain, I waited too long to obtain good legal representation. When I finally ended up getting a lawyer, I was quite distraught and I clearly did not do the proper research and this resulted in a less than stellar performance and detrimental to me at many key steps in the process. I had to switch legal representation right before mediation and I can't blame my new lawyer either, as (s)he did not have the required time to catch up on all the details, (s)he did his/her best, but I was ultimately strongarmed into conceding my soon-to-be-ex-wife to let her return to the house, in exchange to obtain 50% of my son's custody, with serious and strict clauses I had to abide by. So, I had to move out, find a hole in the wall in a student apartment, pay my rent and pay our kids pre-school, while she lives grandiose, without monthly payments in the country club, till the house sells, which will likely be in the spring of next year. Nice! Due to my delay, legal mishandling and somehow every other element in her favor, she inexplicably ended up with around 3/4 of the worth of all assets, free and clear, no taxes due. Mind you, she has never financially contributed, nor made a single $ during our entire marriage. She has never worked and had $0 in her pocket when we married. She didn't even have a checking account, well in her thirties. She is no dummy; she is street smart, knows how to manipulate people, get her way with flirting and charm, while I am more intellectual and book smart. and She beat me hands-down. She is walking away with a sum of, not quite 7 figures, but close. With what I am left with from the sale of the house, I am responsible to pay for all the capital gains taxes from the liquidation to the IRS, which are due in April 2019. I don't expect there to be more left over than the estimated $30k mentioned above. Hate the market all you want, I made peace with the market and am keeping busy at hating my ex for a while for putting me in the same situation. She tripped me 1 yard before the finish line and pushed me in the prickly bushes, to cross it by herself. Go figure. When I am done hating her, I'll get back to rebuilding my life again from scratch. I am not worried, I have done it before. Just pissed, I was so close and that I was so naive to not see it coming. Sorry, I am not meaning to hijack the thread, just wanted you to know that others may have lost more than just "free" money; money we didn't really have to work for. We were the lucky ones. It is what I keep telling myself to stop me from jumping off a bridge. PS - Woah: Sorry for the wall of text; I was just going to write the first paragraph and ended up venting about my current situation. I know, I should take this issue to /depressed, /exes or /whereisthenearestbridgeIcanjumpfrom. Hopefully, this can be a lesson to those holding crypto and some can learn what NOT to do. I learned the hard way and was left with nothing. Don't be a nice guy. Don't trust anyone with your crypto. Anyhow, I am sure either our vigilant subreddit bot, or one of the mods will remove my post for not adhering to rule, and if not, I am sure that you fine people will downvote me to hell. Go ahead. Take away from me the little Karma I left too! Thanks! I learned many lessons, but here are some key ones [IANAL - any crypto-educated AL opinion appreciated here, thanks] : - Understand the concept of private property - property you acquire before getting married. INAL - this depends on the state legislation, but it is hard to prove with crypto, especially if you obtained your crypto through foreign exchanges, outside of legal jurisdictions, the petitioner might not understand or willing to invest in obtaining subpoenas and requests to businesses operating overseas, as this may result costly. - Get a lawyer who understands, or is willing to understand crypto, its benefits of being somewhat unreachable and how that can work for you. Don't let them shortchange you with: "well, let's just convert the rest to cash, because that I understand" type of reasoning. - If you do go to mediation, the above applies as well. This arbitrator or mediator needs to be one that understands the intrinsic details of crypto - for example, during the ATH, I bought 6 digits worth in $USD of Stellar. I used the very first version of the software, supporting Stellar on my hardware device, and put it all in a cold storage wallet somewhere around January. I routinely checked on my coins on the blockchain and they are there. A few months later, I try to access my account and the device returns a different public address, which contains 0 funds. I am still trying to debug this issue with the manufacturer, but the fact is that I was accused of hiding these coins or negligence and was demanded that I paid half of what was lost. or not lost, out of my pocket for money that I didn't have access either. I tried to explain it in the simplest terms, there are risks involved with using first come software. There is no 1800 number, mo tech support. no CEO, no, you can't call the BBB and complain, etc and no one seemed to be able to understand, nor willing to either. It became a huge roadblock for which I had to concede, not cash, but a concession, I was not wanting to concede. The petitioner leaned on the fact that I was either wilfully cheating or stupid enough to lose the coins and managed to create enough doubt in my character and integrity and there was nothing rational I could explain that she, or anyone else in the room would understand. Perhaps mutually contracting a seasoned crypto expert that can offer a neutral view and give his/her opinion might be worth considering. Andreas, where were you when I needed you? :) - Other examples were some coins I had bought in 2012 and gifted to some of her family's kids. I was holding these, till they would turn 16 for them to pay themselves their college, or so I told them. These coins were demanded back by the petitioner. Ok, I suggested that I would send them, but with a CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY value with a block height of let's say,10 years from now, out of fear that she would spend the coins and the kids would never know (they are toddlers). No one understood what I was talking about, I was made out the crazy one, I gave up, sent her the coins, unlocked and, just as I expected, within 20 minutes of receiving them, she spent $1200 worth of it (for a flight, I think). If you are the only one speaking your language, no one is willing to listen or make an effort to understand you. - It appears my coins were private property, which means, that I acquired them before the marriage and in case of divorce, if I have not moved them or used them for the common good of the marriage, then they remain mine. However, I liquidated them and cash ended up in my checking account to be used to buy groceries, cars and eventually a house, and it is then that they became common property. Only once they landed in my checking account on which she is named on. It appears that had I taken proper legal precautions with documentation, or a company/trust, where that money would have gone, instead of my checking accounts, elsewhere, I would have still been able to be the legal proprietor of the resulting cash. I can't quite remember the details, but it as something that was explained to me afterward, and I honestly think I just tuned it out, because it made me sick to know I could have held on to my wealth. Perhaps a lawyer can chime in? Again, much of the lack of information and every misstep taken was because of dealing with people that are accustomed to traditional assets and will not deviate from it. Crypto is different and is treated differently. It is so important to know the strengths and weaknesses when going into litigation about something that people don't understand. - Some more I can think of, but this post is getting way out of hand in size. Feel free to comment/suggest your own and I'll add more to the comments. Credits to: u/nanoissuperior Thanks for your post, it inspired me to write this one. Anyone, any karma you feels needs to go his way, for providing the source of inspiration, please give to O-OP. TL;DR: Wife, having contributed $0 during entire marriage, waited until I cashed out all my crypto at the top of the bull market in January 2018, for a nice seven-figure amount, and then immediately divorced me for the money. Edit: added TL;DR
Adrafinil vs Modafinil - The Definitive Reddit Guide
What is Modafinil?
Modafinil is a eugeroic – or, simply, a wakefulness-promoting agent – with a primary purpose of combating narcolepsy amongst suffers. Eugeroics differ from other stimulants because they are considered relatively non-addictive. This means that they do not cause the typical side effects experienced with most stimulants, like agitation and nervousness. Let us first discuss the chemical components of Modafinil. It is a racemic mixture, and such mixtures have equal amounts of left- and right-handed enantiomers. Enantiomers are the two forms in which large numbers of chemicals exist. Both forms are chemically and structurally identical, yet are nevertheless mirror images of the other. In other words, enantiomers are the ‘left’ and ‘right’ versions of a drug. These are called S and R enantiomers. One enantiomer is typically responsible for the majority of a drug’s effects, while the other can contribute to those positive effects. In other cases, the less dominant enantiomer can cause adverse side effects, or it be inert. Interestingly Modafinil Most racemic mixtures are balanced equally. This means half of the mixture is ‘left’ enantiomer and the other half is ‘right’. Modafinil is an equal combination of its S- and R- enantiomers, meaning that both have a psychoactive function. Just as you sometimes need two hands to do a job correctly, Modafinil uses both of its enantiomers to provide the ideal effect on body and mind. Preliminary scientific evidence has found that Modafinil works through histamine signaling. This phrase might indeed baffle you if you aren’t familiar with biological terminology. What this essentially means is that the histamine receptors, found for example in the central nervous system, are provoked. Michael J Minzenberg and Cameron S Carter’s journal provides ample scientific research on Modafinil’s neurochemical actions and effects. Histamine acts a neurotransmitter, a chemical substance which is released at the end of a nerve fibre by the arrival of a nerve impulse. Neurotransmitters affect the transfer of the impulse to another nerve fibre, muscle fibre, or some other structure within the body. Modafinil enhances histamine activity by stimulating the central system. This increased activity therefore impacts other nerve fibres/muscle fibres in the body, accounting for its ability to stimulate a fatigued body. As well as fighting tiredness, Modafinil also improves general mood and well-being amongst users, with positive improvements seen with mental focus, analytic capability and memory recall and retention. Britain deems Modafinil a prescription-only drug. In America, meanwhile, Modafinil’s brand name is Provigil. It is considered a scheduled drug, meaning that it necessitates a prescription in order to obtain it legally.
What is Adrafinil?
Adrafinil is a pro-drug to Modafinil. This simply means that supplementation of it increases concentrations of Modafinil in the body. The liver changes Adrafinil to Modafinil. Similarly to Modafinil, Adrafinil’s cognitive benefits are enhanced by noted improvements in day-time alertness, motivation, mood and energy levels. It also does not generate the irritability, anxiousness and nervousness routinely experienced through the use of other stimulants. Britain does not measure Adrafinil under the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971, a legislation that governs the regulation of drugs. This means that it is not regulated. Adrafinil’s legal status and nootropics in general, nevertheless remains in grey area. It is lawful for purchase by British residents, but only for personal use. In the U.S, however, the drug is currently legal and can be bought, prescription free, as an alternative to Modafinil. Though its manufactured moniker Olmifon was discontinued in 2011, Adrafinil itself can still be purchased easily online.
Why do they differ?
Modafinil and Adrafinil are two of the most popular stimulants available. Though both offer similar if not identical cognitive benefits, there are key distinctions between both. Chemically speaking, the structures of both drugs are very similar: Adrafinil Structure It is, however, with the body’s processing of each drug that differences become most apparent. Modafinil is processed through metabolic activity occurring mainly in the liver. Lesser contributions to the metabolising process are made through the activity of the enzyme cytochrome P450 (CYP). Cytochrome p-450 (often abbreviated “CYP”) is a class of enzymes that is involved in the metabolism of many medications and is located primarily in the liver. But, what exactly are enzymes? They exist in living organisms and catalyze specific biochemical reactions within the body. At the beginning of a reaction process, molecules exist called ‘substrates’. The enzyme converts these into ‘products’. All metabolic processes in cells require enzymes to react within the body at rates fast enough to sustain life. Adrafinil differs because it is changed into Modafinil in the liver. This means that it relies on greater enzyme activity to process correctly and efficiently. The conversion process of Adrafinil and Modafinil sees the former breaking down into the latter as a compound. This is how it is metabolized. Enzymes are relied upon more during the metabolic process of Adrafinil. As mentioned briefly in the metabolism of Modafinil, the enzyme involved in metabolizing Adrafinil when it reaches the liver is Cytochrome p-450. How quickly the liver is able to convert Adrafinil is dependent upon metabolic rate and the efficiency of the liver overall. Two people of the same sex, similar age and weight can take the same dose of Adrafinil but achieve very different results. In necessitating a more rigorous metabolism process, the most profound difference between Modafinil and Adrafinil is that the latter requires the greater use of Cytochrome p-450. Over time, if the drug is not taken cyclically, such enzymes can build up in the liver with potentially damaging effects on the organ as a whole.
Adrafinil vs Modafinil Dosage
For Adrafinil, it as advised to dose between 600 to 1200mg per day. It is further advised, as with the majority of supplements, to begin on a low dose, only increasing the amount after recognizing your own body’s reaction and tolerance. Adrafinil should not be taken in the afternoon and evening to prevent a sleepless night. Ideally, it should be taken 3 times a week and for no longer than five months. This is primarily to prevent side effects, tolerance and the build-up of enzymes in the liver. Examine.com state that Adrafinil’s recommended dosage range is vast, ranging from 600 to 1,200mg. BodhiSvaha on erowid.org explained their willingness to take both small doses and larger ones of Adrafinil:
After extensive experimentation with dosage, I have settled on taking 300mg when I wake up and another 300 mg in the early afternoon. There does not seem to be much, if any, habituation or tolerance created by Adrafinil.Occasionally I will take doses up to 1200 mg when a high degree of concentration is required. I have found this dose to be very effective at potentiating and improving the tryptamine experience, in particular. I find tryps sometimes bring a feeling of lethargy or body load with some cognitive dullness. Adrafinil counters this effect very nicely.
Here it is evident that, despite there being a large range of recommended doses for Adrafinil, all of them are safe. Whatever you choose within that range is dependent on your desired alertness and bodily tolerance. Reddit user ssitimefill explains the necessity of slowly upping Adrafinil dosage, as well as suggesting why a higher dose than Modafinil is required:
To my knowledge it is not established how what proportion of adrafinil is broken down into modafinil and what proportion into modafinilic acid.This proportion likely varies person to person, and also by dose. Some studies have reported adrafinil more potent at lower doses.The general psychological effect of adrafinil depends not only on the quantity converted into modafinil but the rate of this conversion.300 mg of modafinil from adrafinil is not likely to produce an identical effect from 300 mg of modafinil.Basically there is no way to determine optimum dose of adrafinil other than trial and error.The best procedure is to start with low doses (measured via scale) and slowly increase dose until you reach the optimal, then sub-optimal dose. When you have reached sub-optimal dose (too much adrafinil) you can deduce what dose is optimal for you.
Because Modafinil does not transform in the liver, it generally requires lesser dosage to reach its optimum effect. Modafinil is typically sold in 100 mg or 200 mg tablets. The latter option is more popular due to its greater availability. 200 mg is indeed the recommended dose, to be taken once per day, usually during the morning. It may be taken with or without food. (nootriment.com) Some recommend starting with an initial intake of 100 mg Modafinil dosage. This helps with accustoming the body to the drug itself. An anonymous writer on erowid.org posted his first use of 100mg Modafinil, describing its positive effects:
And today I tried modafinil 100 mg for the first time. I took it at around 10:45 AM today and it is now 4:35 PM. My experience has been much like those of others herein described– initial buzziness (~1 hr after I took the pill) that lasted about as long. But for the past 4 hours, I have been just plain awake. I have not succumbed to the usual desire to take a nap in the afternoons despite the near-90-degree heat, which usually puts me right to sleep. I have had no such desire in fact. I am not jittery or having unusual thoughts, etc.
It is also possible to take higher doses. Up to 400 mg per day has been shown to be very well-tolerated. Pino on drugs-forum tried a variety of dosages and provides some succinct information of the results: Combinations:
200 mg modafinil +caffeine: Pleasant vibe, easy and fast thinking. Able to solve sudokus a lot quicker. The bus driver becomes more self reassured in conversations and is able to focus more than 16 hours. Sleep quality is ok. (bp: 130/80)200 mg modafinil + too much caffeine (4 cups of coffee): Anxiousness and some hypertension kicks in here. (bp: 140/93) Concentration is less than optimal in this region.400 mg modafinil + normal caffeine: Nice euphoria, but can also turn into anxiousness.
It is clear that the recommended doses are speculative and dependent on personal accounts of drug use. There are certainly more user reviews around the internet that explain individual experiences of alternating dosage amounts. There is, of course, still the question of the differences in dosage between Modafinil and Adrafinil. Jjhurley on Reddit discussed the differences in dosage between both:
… most people tell me 300mg of adra is comparable to just 100mg of moda. Whether your ratio or this other ratio is correct doesn’t make too much a difference, but I have been taking 600mg of adra and don’t want to lose any potency. Is this to say I should go with 300-400mg of moda? If so, that’s a little upsetting because I was really hoping to have equal, if not better, experiences on just 200mg of moda.
ProfWiki agreed that Adrafinil should be taken in higher dosages than Modafinil:
I take 600 mg in order to get effects. This is equivalent to about 200 mg of modafinil. I think throwf0 read you as saying modafinil since he mentioned modafinil. Modafinil is a lot stronger than adrafinil. 150 mg of adrafinil would be about like 50 mg of adrafinil.Anyway, like I said, 50 mg of Adrafinil is far too lose to be effective. 50 mg of MODAfinil might work okay for some but they typically are just breaking up a standard 100/200 mg dose.Being that Adrafinil works by metabolizing into Modafinil, and that as a rule of thumb 1/3 of Adrafinil turns into modafinil, a 50 mg dose of Adrafinil would be just roughly 16-17 mg of modafinil. There wouldn’t be any effects from such a low level dose.
Adrafinil vs Provigil
Let us first make one distinction: Adrafinil = generic drug Provigil = brand name of Modafinil It is often questioned what the difference between Provigil and Adrafinil is. However, the former is simply a branded name for the generic drug Modafinil, which, as we have now found, is the metabolite of Adrafinil. So long as users are acquiring pure generic versions of Adrafinil, then the same effects as Provigil will be felt and the advised dosage will essentially be identical. It is therefore not unusual for potential users to question the differences between Provigil and Adrafinil. Moreover, it is certainly not unreasonable to question their differences. For instance, internet user Shatneresque questioned the difference between Modafinil and Provigil, which are the same drug, asking:
My pharmacy sent me a email saying I can now replace my Provigil ($125 a month) with the generic version and they need my okay to do so.Before I say yes and say the money, I want to know if anyone has noticed any differences. I am very happy with the provigil and have been taking it for several years.
This query was answered by Serpens:
It appears that Cephalon, the maker of Provigil, has been purchased by Teva, titan generic manufacturer. There are currently three manufacturers selling a generic labeled ‘modafinil’ : Cephalon (brand holder), Teva, and Par. All three are using the same brand name NDA license on file with the FDA. In addition, Elsevier’s Clinical Pharmacology has images and references available for the generic product being shipped for all three drug companies.They’re all the same pill. Images of all three products show a white oblong tablet with “Provigil” on one side, and the strength on the other. All products have the same inactive ingredients.
Queries like this prove that caution is imperative when deciding on which supplement to use. This is especially true if you are a first time user or are, like Shatneresque, accustomed to using one particular brand such as Provigil. Researching alternatives and finding the most information about whatever drug you are choosing is vital if you are to select the right one for you. Awareness is the key and there is no harm in asking questions that, to you, may sound obvious once they are answered.
Provigil was originally manufactured by Cephalon, the same company behind the previously branded version of Adrafinil (Olmifon). Business editor Dell Poncet writes of how, in 1999, interest for both Cephalon and Provigil was taking off, with registered quarterly sales of $10.7 million. Being among the leading biopharmaceutical companies in the world, Cephalon flourished. In 2011, it was acquired by Teva, the largest generic drug manufacturer in the world for a huge $6.8 billion (read more here). There is little surprise, then, that Provigil is sold at quite a cost. A 30-day supply of Provigil 200mg pills can cost as much as $1500. Buyers in the UK can therefore expect to pay even more if the pharmacy offers world-wide shipping. Since branded Modafinil is so expensive, Adrafinil is clearly the best alternative. The latter drug does not come attached to a manufactured title, and is inexpensive yet easily attainable. What is more, it can be bought prescription-free online or by phone. There are plenty of legitimate outlets stocking Adrafinil and these can be accessed at the click of a button. If economizing is one aspect of importance, then Adrafinil is certainly the best choice.
Modafinil in India
More importantly health-wise, though, is the scary possibility of purchasing a dodgy-version of branded Modafinil online. With the cost of Provigil being so high, it is unsurprising that many prospective users look for a cheaper alternative for their first time trying the drug. Many turn to the internet’s grey market, where there is a lingering risk of being ripped off with tampered drugs. This is where extra caution and care should be applied. Once users began contemplating off-label equivalents, international pharmacy websites quickly took the opportunity to sell these kinds of drugs. The most popular location from which many internet users buy unbranded Modafinil is India. Sources of the drug in India do not require strict quality control, nor are prescriptions required by users. In fact, there is much information to be considered with regard to India’s counterfeit drugs market. This article on New York Times discusses how:
India’s drug industry is one of the country’s most important economic engines, exporting $15 billion in products annually, and some of its factories are world-class, virtually undistinguishable from their counterparts in the West. But others suffer from serious quality control problems. The World Health Organization estimated that one in five drugs made in India are fakes. A 2010 survey of New Delhi pharmacies found that 12 percent of sampled drugs were spurious.
Meanwhile, this article on safemedsonline.org attests to the New York Times’ discussion, stating that:
The Food and Drug Administration recently conducted a series ofraidsin India to uncover counterfeit drugs. The raids yielded large quantities of substandard medicines and resulted in several arrests. However, in India, the penalties for making and selling counterfeit medicines are minimal, the convictions are rare, and the profits are enormous. Since the raids late last year, the problem has only gotten worse.
Alarm bells should definitely ring here. Without quality control, many drugs that appear on international websites do not contain legitimate ingredients. It is a huge gamble to assume your purchased pills are pure or authentic. There’s a great possibility that you might not experience the proper effects of the medication and there is serious potential that you may have toxic reactions to the ingredients in fake versions of the drug. Some websites and online Nootropics communities maintain lists of verified and trustworthy Modafinil vendors, but such vendors do not generally stay on the lists for long. In many cases, a trusted supplier can end up sending out a fake or ineffective batch of pills even after you have developed a long-standing relationship with them. It is almost impossible to protect against this risk. There is really only one sensible alternative if you find the price of Provigil unreasonable, or if you are contemplating buying potentially contaminated off-label versions from India. Users should purchase Adrafinil from a reputable supplier instead, rather than paying the very serious costs of purchasing from an unreliable source abroad.
Adrafinil vs Modafinil forum
There are many reviews across the internet on individual preferences: Adrafinil or Modafinil. It is all, of course, subjective to user experience. Whilst some remain skeptical towards the newer of the two drugs, Adrafinil, there are huge amounts of successful reviews to be considered. On reddit, jjhurley writes:
Long story short, today is just my 3rd day using adrafinil and I’m impressed with the results so far.I keep reading from people who’ve experienced both adra & moda is that they prefer modafinil. To me it is surprising there would be a whole lot of difference given what we know about adrafinil converting to modafinil once in your system. I understand the conversion takes time but I wouldn’t think that to make a significant impact to different effects.
It is also important to remember that Adrafinil is converted into Modafinil once in the liver. Many users therefore experience the same results with both drugs, and are positive in their opinions of both. DoyouknowmyPW on Reddit concurs, stating that:
I’ve been using Adrafinil and Modafinil for a few weeks now during the workweek. 100-150mg for Modafinil, 200-270 for Adrafinil. I’ve never noticed any painful side-effects, might just be a coincidence. Sharp pain like that could be trapped gas (of course I am not a physician though!).It does help greatly staying more alert during the day. Before I would have issues some days where I am truly struggling to keep my eyes open, especially during meetings. I’ve fallen asleep at least twice for a brief second because my eyes were just too heavy. Since I’ve been taking the morning dose that sleepiness has gone away and I am now on a better sleep schedule because I feel tired when I’m suppose to.
Some users speak of branded versions of the drugs. For example, Akoward on drugs-forum writes:
Recently got a hold of some Nuvigil. Have had previous experience with Olmifon (Adrafinil). As has been said before its much more potent at lower dose that Adrafinil. I only need 1/2 a pill to do what 2x300mg Adrafinils were doing for me. I took a whole Nuvigil the first time and was more productive in that single day that I had been in ages. Got all my work done, worked on personal projects… it was amazing. I will say that some of the physical side effects were a little troubling (ever present tightness in the collarbone to middle neck area, massive restless legs)
It is important to see that with Akoward’s review, despite him alternating to the branded Armodafinil, side-effects were still experienced. This goes to show that Adrafinil, though not manufactured under a moniker, is no less competent in generating the excellent results that might be expected from those drugs which sound more ‘professional’.
Adrafinil vs Modafinil vs Armodafinil
Like Adrafinil and Modafinil, Armodafinil is a stimulant used to combat fatigue. Introduced in 2007, Armodafinil appears under brand names such as Nuvigil, Artvigil, and Waklert. It is purportedly more effective at lower doses than its relatives Adrafinil and Modafinil. Armodafinil is an enantiopure drug. Enantiopure drugs contain only one of the enantiomers (spoken about earlier), R or S. The R enantiomer is longer acting and is most responsible for the effects of Modafinil specifically. Since the S enantiomer is not as strong, Armodafinil’s dosage is therefore lower. Most doses are 150mg compared to Modafinil’s 200mg standard dose. Whilst the effects last for roughly the same time, Armodafinil takes longer to reach its peak than Modafinil, and therefore even longer than Adrafinil. This is simply because the S enantiomer reacts and leaves the body faster. Remember, Armodafinil does not have the S enantiomer, whereas Modafinil does. Adrafinil does, too, because Modafinil is a component within it. Because of this, users find that the effects of Armodafinil take longer to make themselves apparent – a potential disadvantage for prospective users. So, how is Armodafinil processed? Dopamine is a compound existing as neurotransmitter within the body. It is also precursor of other substances including adrenaline. Armodafinil is an indirect dopamine receptor agonist. What this essentially means, then, is that Armodafinil provokes the dopamine levels in the body. Armodafinil is metabolized in much the similar way as Modafinil. It relies on amide hydrolysis primarily, and enzyme activity from by cytochrome P450 secondly. Amide Hydrolysis refers to the reaction with water of amides – a compound) As a consequence, this means that is does not rely as much on heavy enzyme activity in the liver. Adrafinil does. This presents further difference that may be considered by potential users. However, it is important to remember to stick to dosage guidance. If taken properly, and often cyclically, Adrafinil is no more threatening to the liver than Modafinil or Armodafinil. Because Armodafinil, Modafinil and Adrafinil are all very similar in terms of effect, there is much discussion about which is the best. With regard to Modafinil and Armodafinil specifically, some may assume that because small dosages are needed for the latter that it is more efficient. However, it is important to remember individual sensitivity levels. Different drugs can have different reactions for different people. Potency is therefore not the only factor; the personal experience of using either Armodafinil or Modafinil is equally important. A trial and error approach may be necessary, but, of course, extensive research to find the best possible supplement for you is paramount. In undertaking research, then, you may discover information that suits your needs. For example, it is proposed that, unlike Modafinil, Armodafinil will not actually disturb your existing sleep patterns. Modafinil users might agree a good night’s sleep is difficult to achieve depending on the dosage. Reddit user guitar1560 states that
I took 50mg two days in a row twice. Couldn’t sleep well the second night both times
Whereas SequenceConvenience writes
I’ve experienced pretty strong sleep changes while taking modafinil, but nothing that has been negative. I actually seem to need less sleep, at least in the sense that it is very easy for me to get out of bed the day after taking modafinil. Then again, I also don’t seem to have much in the way of dreams during those nights.
Armodafinil does not impact sleep pattern. However, with SequenceConvenience’s review, it is clear that some find this a positive effect of Modafinil while others, like guitar1560, may be disappointed. Respective costs of the drugs might further influence your decision. KimberCT on Longe City tried both Armodafinil and Modafinil, but was swayed somewhat by the price of Nuvigil (the branded name of Armodafinil):
Currently taking 250mg armodafinil daily. To be honest, I kind of prefer modafinil. It seems to have a little more of a quick kick to it. Probably that isomer with a short half life peaking. Other than that, I can’t tell the difference between Nuvigil and modafinil (Sun Pharma). I’d probably have continued taking modafinil, but Cephalon has jacked the price since Nuvigil was FDA approved. With an Rx, Provigil is twice the price of Nuvigil. Their way of getting everyone onto Nuvigil before Provigil’s patent expires.
Adrafinil, meanwhile, can be obtained very cheaply online because it does not exist under a manufactured name. Nevertheless, many of these drugs are safe to use even if they lack a moniker like Provigil or Nuvigil. To stop concerns of the legitimacy of your purchased drug, always ask that your online manufacturer provides a COA (Certificate of Authenticity) on demand. This means that the substance batch has undergone a third-party laboratory analysis to ensure that your purchased drug matches its label and is not contaminated. A common side-effect of Adrafinil is that the urine can smell different after ingestion of the drug. This is because one of Adrafinil’s metabolites contains a sulphur-based compound, and sulphur is strong smelling in itself. However, these criticisms are not limited to Adrafinil alone and it should not sway potential users away from this particular drug. Modafinil has also been found to change the odor of urine. For example, PhysicsMaestro on Longe city queries:
I’ve been using modafinil (modalert) for about 8 months now, and regularly noticed a distinct smell of my urine whenever taking it. However, with this armodafinil, I don’t seem to notice it, which worries me a bit (i.e., not really what it states to be). Has anyone else noticed this difference between armodafinil and modafinil? I thought maybe the S-enantiomer could be metabolized and excreted quicker, thus resulting in an early onset smell, but I am just guessing.
The difference could easily be due to one of the excipients of the tablet, not the active ingredient. It’s also possible that only the S-enantiomer causes the smell, and of course, there’s the possibility that either these pills or the old ones didn’t actually contain modafinil. Sometimes they contain caffeine or dimethylamylamine or other stimulants, either mixed with modafinil or completely replacing it.
PhysicsMaestro thereafter concurrs:
I thought the odorous urine was ubiquitous to all variants of modafinil, resulting from its metabolites. But I guess the smell could be dependent on the enantiomer. I am willing to assume that whatever enzyme metabolizes modafinil to modafinil acid would leave its chirality intact. I don’t think it would be the excipients since the smell is so widely reported with different sources (and the modafinil has a sulfiyl group, so)
Nor does Armodafinil escape the urine issues. An anonymous writer on Erowid.org wrote:
Oh, and the pill tastes awful. Don’t let it get stuck in your mouth. And my pee starts to smell like it, too, but I get used to it
It is therefore important not to be selective of criticism based on what drug you have been swayed by. If you read that Modafinil is apparently “safer” because it does not rely on rampant enzyme activity, then do remember to include other issues such as cost-efficiency and, of course, other side-effects that might become more apparent than rare liver problems. These side-effects might include nausea, chest-pain or a faster heart rate (nhs.uk). Adrafinil stands out as the most cost-effective, and, though it has been reported to alter urine odor, it is not alone. Modafinil, the more expensive, and Armodafinil, with a longer reaction time, also generate similar side-effects. As well as reviews on specific effects of Adrafinil, Armodafinil or Modafinil, there are plenty of general overviews to be found around the internet. On Reddit, BitcoinOperatedGirl writes of her experience:
I tried the adrafinil first, starting with a low dose of 200mg one morning. I prepared a capsule and put it in a baggie next to my pillow before I went to sleep. When my alarm clock rang in the morning, I swallowed the capsule, silenced the alarm clock, and went back to sleep. I was expecting the stimulatory effect to eventually wake me up, as a caffeine pill would, but I ended up sleeping for two more hours. I felt a little disappointed after getting up and not feeling any stimulation, so I decided to add an extra 400mg to the mix.The rest of the day, I was in a fairly good mood. I thought that I was maybe a little more energetic and motivated than usual. I was fairly productive and I worked out. The effect wasn’t what I expected, however. I’ve read people on here talking about feeling wired, and “laser beam focus”, but a whole 600mg of adrafinil felt nothing close to what I imagined (I guess I imagined it would feel like a mild dose of ritalin or something). On the upside, I experienced no substantial anxiety, whereas all the amphetamine-like drugs make me very uncomfortably anxious (I really can’t stand them, they feel disgusting to me). I didn’t really feel a crash and I went to bed at my normal hour.I’m experimenting with adrafinil again today. I took 800mg this time. I was feeling particularly tired this morning (cripplingly tired, lethargic really). I definitely feel more energetic now. I’ve gotten some work done, I’m feeling the drive to write walls of text on reddit and I’m going to have a workout in a few minutes. I don’t expect to have any motivational issues today. Maybe I’ll even cook something fun. Only unfortunate side-effect seems to be a mild headache, but advil seems to be taking care of that.I also tried armodafinil a week ago. Took a small 75mg dose in the morning. Same setup as with adrafinil. I also fell back to sleep for 2 hours. I felt pretty anxious that day and also got a headache. I can’t quite be sure the armodafinil is to blame but I suspect it is. Seems much more anxiety-inducing than adrafinil, which is unfortunate given that it seems adrafinil is worse for your liver. Armodafinil is probably just not for me.
Nezxon on LongeCity meanwhile states that:
I’m taking 75mg Adrafinil (Olmifon) twice daily and I haven’t experienced any side effects. I’d like to give Armodafinil a try, perhaps even safer in the long-term than Modafinil is.
These kinds of reviews certainly help to build a solid picture of each drug’s story. Undertaking research like this to decide on which drug is preferable to you is definitely something you should embark on before picking at random a supplement based on one review.
Adrafinil vs Modafinil reddit
The only notable difference in reviews between Modafinil and Adrafinil is that the latter takes longer to take effect. For example, justmodz1 stated that:
adrafinil is the precursor of modafinil in that it came first and led to the discovery of modafinil in fact adrafinil turns into modafinil in the body due to breakdown of it molecules which actually means that the two have the same effects but adrafinil takes longer to take effect.
While KPC100 agreed that:
Adrafinil gets turned into Modafinil in your system. Because of this, you need a much larger dose and it takes longer to take effect.
Although it does have a longer reaction time, this certainly shouldn’t be a downfall of Adrafinil. It is simply a case that Adrafinil’s chemical processing takes a little longer. However, once complete, the results are just as effective as those found with Modafinil. Take into consideration, also, that Adrafinil will certainly stimulate, energize and ultimately shake you awake. The seemingly longer period of time before this happens will soon become irrelevant when the benefits are reaped. Further Reddit reviews compare other aspects of Adrafinil and Modafinil. Jjhurley, commenting on the actual nature of each drug, states that:
I keep reading from people who’ve experienced both adra & moda is that they prefer modafinil. To me it is surprising there would be a whole lot of difference given what we know about adrafinil converting to modafinil once in your system. I understand the conversion takes time but I wouldn’t think that to make a significant impact to different effects.
While the same user goes on to discuss issues of costing, in the end suggesting that, in terms of price, they would definitely prefer Adrafinil:
I was really hoping to have equal, if not better, experiences on just 200mg of moda. The reason I’d like to not take more than that is simply cost. At $1.50-2.00 per 200mg pill of moda (prices based off the quantities I’d be ordering as well as variation in supplier prices) it’s too costly to have to take twice that for my own personal budget. To be honest, even at $1.50-2.00 per pill/200mg is already high for my budget.I can get 50g of adrafinil for $98 which comes out to up to 50% cheaper a single moda dose/pill of 200mg. If conversion ratios are right and I’d need two pills or 400mg of moda though then my adra would be 75% cheaper.
There are plenty of important aspects to consider when choosing between Modafinil or Adrafinil. Firstly, selecting the safest and most reliable drug should be of paramount interest. Whereas Adrafinil is often tested by third parties and is shipped nationally rather than across sees, Modafinil (both branded and unbranded versions) is often left untested and sent from India. Quality control is a big issue of concern for international pharmacies and should definitely guide your final decision. Pricing is also important to consider. Although you might think you’re getting a better deal by choosing a cheaper off-label version from India, it is still not as easy to buy Modafinil as it is Adrafinil. Most venders of Modafinil do not accept Paypal. This service offers secure buyer protection. With the option of a legitimate, nationally supplied alternative in Adrafinil, it is illogical to risk your bank account details instead – just to purchase a drug that will likely be contaminated and unsafe
How to Buy Modafinil in the UK | What You Must Know
How to Buy Modafinil in the UK | What You Must Know
Are you curious about how to buy Modafinil in the UK these days? Then you’re in the perfect place. Here’s the skinny: While the smart drug is technically regarded as prescription-only in the United Kingdom, you can simply and legallybuy Modafinil online– whether you have a doctor’s prescription or not. But there’s a little bit more to it… So in this comprehensive guide, I talk about everything you need to know about getting the world’s most popular smart drug while living in the United Kingdom. While I’m not from the UK, I certainly know how to order Modafinil online while living in the country. Luckily, it’s not too difficult these days. After buying nootropics online for nearly a half decade, I’ve found out which vendors will send your legit smart drugs with fast shipping. These online Modafinil pharmacies will also guarantee your order. You’ll get your smart drugs or you’ll get your money back. No questions asked. When ordering from these types of online Modafinil vendors, there’s no risk for you! Buying Modafinil in the United Kingdom has never been easier. In this guide, we’ll talk about: This United Kingdom Modafinil guide is comprehensive to ensure anything and everything you need to know is included. I wanted to make sure every question about Modafinil and the UK was answered. Of course, I’ve gotta hit you with a quick disclaimer before we dive in…
What is Modafinil?
Now, you might just want to know where you can buy Modafinil online in the U.K. – which is perfectly fine. But some of y’all may want a little more information about what Modafinil is and why so many successful individuals use the smart drug. As the world’s most popular smart drug, Modafinil has gained popularity for one reason. Why? Because Modafinil works. The smart drug is the premier cognitive enhancer on the market for a reason. If you take Modafinil, you will find benefits like:
Insane focus for 12+ hours
Enhanced memory retention
Inability to feel fatigued
…And much more!
They say coffee is the lifeblood of champions, but I’m of the opinion that Modafinil is. Overall, Modafinil will help you crush the day like nothing else. You’ll feel like you can accomplish anything and everything you want to. Now, Modafinil isn’t the “Limitless” pill in real life. You won’t write a full novel in one day. But it’s pretty darned close. In the late 1980s, French researchers were working to create a wakefulness agent to treat common ailments like (Source):
Shift sleep disorder
The pharmaceutical drug was named Provigil and quickly made its way to the United States, the land of overuse and abuse. It didn’t take long for CEOs and grad students to see the value of Provigil. In the blink of an eye, every hustler on the east coast of the U.S. was taking Modafinil to gain an advantage over the competition. The smart drug craze had officially begun. Why? Because it’s easy to beat the competition when you can pop one pill and focus for upwards of 12-15+ straight hours. There’s a reason you’re curious how to get your hands on Modafinil in the United Kingdom.
Is Modafinil Legal in the UK?
You should know I’m not a lawyer. Certainly no legal scholar. Just a dude who knows way too much about smart drugs and how they benefit people looking to achieve more in life. With that in mind, this section about Modafinil in the UK and legalities should be taken as hyperbole. Nothing less. Nothing more. So, is it legal to buy Provigil in the United Kingdom? Well, yes and no. Modafinil is fully regulated as a prescription-only medication by the government. But it’s a bit of a grey area. Here’s how I’ll break it down:
Modafinil, whether generic or Provigil, is a prescription-only medication (POM) in the U.K. (Source). This means a few things. First, you can only legally buy Modafinil from the pharmacy in the United Kingdom if you have a prescription from a British doctor (Source).
You cannot get the smart drug for off-the-label uses, like cognitive enhancement, from a pharmacy in the United Kingdom. You’d have to prove you have narcolepsy or sleep apnea to a doctor within the country. However, what about ordering online? Are there legal issues to worry about when buying Modafinil online and shipping it to the United Kingdom? Well, I don’t believe so.
If you’re buying online…
Possession of a POM is only illegal in the United Kingdom if the pharmaceutical drug is the on UK Misuse of Drugs Act 1971 (Source). Currently, Modafinil is not on this list. As such, possession of Modafinil is not considered a punishable offense.
Since Modafinil is not listed on the Misuse of Drugs Act, it’s not illegal to possess the substance for personal use – even if you don’t have a prescription. In practical terms, this means that you can order Modafinil online in the United Kingdom and have little issue receiving the product. Even if import controls “catches” your smart drugs in-transit, there are no legal repercussions you need to worry about. The worst that happens? Your package gets confiscated by import controls and customs destroys it. If that happens, your online Modafinil pharmacy will issue you a refund or reshipment. Whatever you want. No harm. No foul. –> Is Modafinil legal in the UK? In my opinion, yes. Well, at least it’s legal enough to order online without worry. But again, I’m no lawyer and you’ll have to make that choice for yourself. Always do your own research and make smart choices.
How to get a Modafinil Prescription in the UK
While Modafinil laws in the UK don’t seem to be an issue for the vast majority of individuals, some people might be interested in how to get a Modafinil prescription here. The reality? It can be difficult to get a Modafinil prescription in the UK. This is for one reason and one reason only… Modafinil can only be prescribed in the UK for ailments like narcolepsy and excessive daytime sleepiness due to sleep apnea or shift sleep disorder. For ‘off-the-label’ uses, such as taking Modafinil as a smart drug or nootropic, doctors in the country tend to avoid writing prescriptions for it. Here’s why: Modafinil laws in the UK and the risks a doctor takes when prescribing something off-the-label here. UK doctors are faced with far greater legal risk when prescribing medications off-the-label due to laws and legislation provided by UK.gov:
The responsibility that falls on healthcare professionals when prescribing an unlicensed medicine or a medicine off-label may be greater than when prescribing a licensed medicine within the terms of its licence. Prescribers should pay particular attention to the risks associated with using unlicensed medicines or using a licensed medicine off-label.
Aka a doctor could get into legal trouble if they prescribed a drug off-the-label that caused someone a health problem. Most doctors simply aren’t willing to take this risk when you walk into their office asking about Provigil for cognitive enhancement. Therefore, to get a Modafinil prescription in the UK, you’ll have to prove that you have narcolepsy or excessive daytime sleepiness due to sleep apnea or shift sleep disorder. That’s the only way to do it. As such, many have found buying Modafinil online far easier while living in the United Kingdom. Which is what we’ll discuss below…
Where to Buy Modafinil Online in the UK | 2020 Guide
If you’re looking to buy Modafinil in the United Kingdom, you’re in the right spot. Below you’ll find the best online Modafinil vendors that ship to the country. After working with over a half dozen pharmacies throughout the years, I’ve found the vendors below to be the absolute best. All my preferred Modafinil sellers offer:
Fast shipping to the UK
Legitimate generic Modafinil products
Amazing Bitcoin discounts
Return customer coupons
But enough with the ado, let’s get into things and see where you can buy Modafinil online in the UK. Here are my favorite sellers:
As of writing this article, BuyModa is the premier Modafinil vendor in the whole entire world. Bar none. These guys are the best. If you’re buying Modafinil in the United Kingdom, I’d recommend taking a look at these guys. Their customer service is impeccable, the pricing is low, and their Bitcoin discount is solid. I’m talking a 35% BTC discount on top of their already LOW, LOW prices. Some of the lowest in the industry. Plus, Modafinil orders in the UK from Buy Moda will arrive within 6-10 days, with most orders arriving within a week. That’s pretty quick shipping! And the most important part… You can pay for Buy Moda orders with credit cards. Like all legitimate Modafinil vendors, Buy Moda offers guaranteed delivery. You either get your order or they’ll send you a full refund or a reshipment. It’s your choice. You have no worries here. But do know…the customer service from Buy Moda is truly second to none. I’ve yet to find a Modafinil vendor that takes care of their customers in the way Buy Moda does. You’ll be in great hands when ordering here. Overall, a great option for those in the UK. Oh, and one more thing… When you spend over $100 bucks on any order with the world’s best Modafinil vendor, Buy Moda — you also get 30 free pills with the order. Aka more savings!
If you’re buying Modafinil in the UK, another place I’d recommend checking out is Modafinil XL. These guys do a good job shipping Modafinil to the UK. Modafinil XL is known for great customer service, low prices, legit products, and some of the best discounts in the industry. You can save up to 35% on your order from this vendor with their Bitcoin coupons. Shipping times to the UK vary, but most orders arrive within 6-10 days from Modafinil XL. If for some reason your package doesn’t arrive, you’ll get a full refund or reshipment. Whatever you prefer. Overall…highly recommended! This is another legitimate Modafinil vendor for any and all living in the United Kingdom. They’ve been around quite some time and do a great job.
Another vendor who holds Modafinil stock in Europe is Eufinil. In fact, these guys only ship to Europe. It’s what they do. It’s their specialty. So you know they do it well. While I prefer other vendors above for larger orders because they’re generally cheaper, I found one heck of a use for Eufinil. If you’re looking to buy Modafinil in the United Kingdom, but don’t want to spend tons of cash… Eufinil allows you to make small orders. You can order as low as 20 servings of Modafinil from these guys — which ends up being about $60 Euros shipped. Not a bad deal at all. Eufinil also offers fast shipping to the UK because they hold stock in the country, guaranteed delivery, and great customer services. Many in the United Kingdom get their orders from Eufinil in less than 3 business days. That’s fast, fast! Overall, they’re an ideal option for anyone looking to test Modafinil out.
Shipping Modafinil | United Kingdom Edition
If you’re worried about shipping Modafinil to the UK, you needn’t be! Why? Because all of the major online Modafinil retailers offer guaranteed delivery to the UK. Every. Single. One. This leads me to believe that customs and border security in the United Kingdom simply are not concerned with generic Modafinil and Provigil being shipped to the country from other parts of the world…mainly India. Because these vendors guarantee their delivery to the UK. This means they’ll refund your full order if the package somehow gets taken by customs. This wouldn’t be profitable if a lot of packages were being taken by the government and customs officials. Furthermore, there’s little to no legal risk to you as an individual ordering Modafinil online in the UK. As previously discussed, Modafinil is not on the Misuse of Drugs Act – as of the writing of this article. This means possession of Modafinil is not a crime in the United Kingdom. Meaning you are not committing a crime buying Modafinil online in the UK and shipping it to your home. The worst case scenario is customs confiscates the smart drugs and you get a refund from the seller. There has yet to be a documented case of someone having legal issues in the UK because they bought Modafinil for personal use from inside the country. So shipping Modafinil to the UK shouldn’t be a concern whatsoever. P.S: Just remember that I’m no lawyer.
Generic Modafinil and Armodafinil in the UK
You can buy Modafinil and Armodafinil from a pharmacy in the U.K. if you get a prescription from a doctor in the country – although that can be harder said than done. Once you have that prescription, you just go to the pharmacy in the U.K. and pick up brand name Modafinil like:
You can find these brand name Modafinil products in U.K. pharmacies, although we’ve found Provigil to be far more common. For Britains looking to order Modafinil online, popular generic Modafinil and Armodafinil products are:
Each one of these products do a damn good job and offer solid cognitive benefits. However, after testing all of these products, I do have a few recommendations for my British readers and those living in the country. Modalert is probably the strongest generic Modafinil product you’ll find in the U.K. I couldn’t recommend it enough. Modvigil, on the other hand, is a cheap alternative for individuals looking for generic Modafinil. Searching for Modafinil’s little cousin Armodafinil in the UK? Then I certainly prefer Waklert. That being said, Artvigil is a cheaper form of generic Armodafinil. Overall, I tend to use Modalert and Waklert. I’ve simply found these products to be superior to all other forms of generic Modafinil and recommend them to anyone looking to buy Modafinil online in the United Kingdom.
Adrafinil in the UK, Prescription-Free Alternative
I’m of the opinion that ordering Modafinil in the United Kingdom from an online vendor shouldn’t be an issue. However, I know a few of you may have concerns. If that’s you, there’s also viable Modafinil alternatives to consider. These nootropics are 100% legal and offer decent cognitive benefits. One of my personal favorites? Enter Adrafinil. Adrafinil is a 100% legal nootropic that’s available over-the-counter. It works like Modafinil because the body essentially converts Adrafinil to the active ingredients in Modafinil upon ingestion (Source). As such, it takes a little longer for Adrafinil to kick in when compared to Modafinil. Plus, this stuff isn’t as strong as Modafinil. But it works! You’ll find cognitive benefits from Adrafinil. If you’re looking to get your hands on over-the-counter smart drugs, like Adrafinil, this is my favorite vendor.
For those curious about other nootropic options and potential Modafinil alternatives, below you’ll find a few more suggestions. But please understand… Modafinil is the ‘King’ with regards to smart drugs. Armodafinil in the UK would then be the ‘Queen’ here, followed by Adrafinil as the ‘Prince’ – if we’re taking that little analogy to its logical conclusion. Still, there’s a few other nootropics I love for UK residents. Here’s a few of my favorites:
Mind Lab Pro: I just recently tried Mind Lab Pro for the first time. After testing dozens upon dozens of smart drugs over the years, I was more than IMPRESSED. Mind Lab Pro offers cognitive enhancement in a Modafinil-like manner. It was baffling how great the stuff works. I could go into detail about the 11+ clinically-researched brain boosting ingredients, but it’s easier to simply tell you this is my favorite nootropic that’s available over-the-counter.
Sulbutiamine: Another fantastic nootropic for UK residents is Sulbutiamine. The smart drug offer works 5-7+ hours solid cognitive enhancement. For people worried Modafinil might be too strong, this is a solid place to look.
Noopept: As one of the more potent over-the-counter smart drugs in the UK, I’ve found Noopept a powerful alternative during testing. It’s not like Modafinil, but you’ll find solid cognitive benefits for this bad boy. I personally recommend the powder form.
The Verdict? | UK Edition
That about wraps it up, mate. Everything you need to know about how to buy Modafinil in the UK. The details you need to get the good stuff. To get your hands on the world’s most popular smart drugs — at great prices. We talk about if Modafinil is legal in the United Kingdom, where you can buy it online, and so much more. If you have any questions about buying Modafinil in the UK, feel free to sound off in the comments below. I’ll get back to you with a detailed answer.
What A Day: D'oh Biden by Brian Beutler, Priyanka Aribindi & Crooked Media (06/19/19)
"I was talking about farting"—Presidential candidate/world’s most awkward person John Hickenlooper
Joe Biden told an audience of donors in New York City that his tax policies wouldn’t “fundamentally change” things, including their quality of life, and waxed nostalgic about his working relationships with segregationists when he was a young senator. Guuuulp. It has not gone over well! Here’s the full rundown. Biden has been campaigning on his ability to reach consensus with Republicans. As evidence of this, he cited his relationships with now-deceased Sens. James Eastland (D-MS) and Herman Talmadge (D-GA). Biden said Eastland “never called me ‘boy,’ he always called me ‘son,’” and called Talmadge “one of the meanest guys I ever knew,” but added, “at least there was some civility. We got things done.” Some problems with this!
Of course these segregationist Senators didn’t call Biden, a white man, “boy.” The implication, intended or not, is they were civil to him because he was white. Which, duh, but also not a great model for making positive change in America.
Whether they were civil with Biden or not, segregationist senators formed the backbone of a vicious, deadly regime that has echoes today in the form of racial inequality, mass incarceration, and other forms of systemic racism.
Eastland and Talmadge were Democrats! (See the Ds by their names?) The fact that Biden was able to cut deals within his own party in the 1970s has no bearing on whether he’ll be able to govern by consensus with Republicans today. In truth, today’s Republican Party has made that kind of governing impossible. Vice President Biden, we have Merrick Garland on line one with a history lesson for you.
Several Democratic presidential candidates have condemned Biden’s comments, including Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O’Rourke, and Bill de Blasio. Biden went on to assure his donors that they won’t assume much financial risk by supporting him. “No one’s standard of living will change, nothing would fundamentally change,” he said. But, “when we have income inequality as large as we have in the United States today, it brews and ferments political discord and basic revolution.” Some problems with this!
Biden has promised not to make a dent in rich people’s fortunes. Not the best way to drive home your income inequality message!
His comments are contradictory: If income inequality is so great that we’re on the verge of “revolution,” isn’t Biden flirting with disaster by promising, “nothing would fundamentally change”? Vote for me! Things most people hate won't get better!
There unfortunately aren’t many generous ways to interpret these comments. They have raised concerns across the party about what kind of nominee and president Biden would be, and so far he hasn’t sought to explain himself or walk the comments back. The good news: he’ll almost certainly face questions about them at next week’s debate. popcorn-eating.gif
Under the Radar
The number of refugees—people who’ve been forced to flee violence or persecution—has reached an all-time high of nearly 71 million people worldwide, and includes an estimated 13.6 million people who became refugees in the last year alone, according to the United Nations. Most of the world’s refugees come from just five countries: Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Myanmar, and Somalia, and the greatest number of refugees live in Turkey, Pakistan, Uganda, Sudan, and Germany, respectively. While presenting the report, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees criticized “inward looking,” wealthy countries, many of which have sought to close their borders to these displaced peoples. That includes, um, us.
Trump administration officials have tried to convince Congress that Iran has ties to al Qaeda, suggesting the White House may try to use a post-9/11 war authorization as a legal justification for attacking Iran over Congress’s objections. There’s every reason to be skeptical of the administration’s claims, and House Democrats underscored their skepticism by voting to repeal that authorization. At a House subcommittee hearing on reparations, the writer Ta-Nehisi Coates called on Congress to “reject fair-weather patriotism, to say that a nation is both its credits and its debits,” and to create a commission to study ways the U.S. government can make amends for slavery and its legacy. Coates also rebutted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who expressed his opposition to reparations on Capitol Hill this Tuesday. President Trump’s former Communications Director Hope Hicks stonewalled Democrats during a closed-door interview with the House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday because White House lawyers barred her from answering any questions about her time in the White House. Hey Democrats: instead of hearings nobody can watch with witnesses you won’t force to testify, have you considered the opposite? Speaking of which, House Democrats may have finally run out of patience with former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s reluctance to testify, but they still haven’t subpoenaed him. Reminder, again: Republicans hauled former FBI Director Jim Comey up to the Hill within two days of his decision to close the Hillary Clinton email investigation. And you might have noticed Republicans are pretty good at this “winning elections” thing. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged today, resisting extraordinary and improper pressure from President Trump, who has suggested he might demote Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even though he does not have the legal authority to do so. International prosecutors indicted three men with ties to Russian intelligence and implicated a senior aide to Vladimir Putin for shooting a missile at Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine in 2014, killing all 298 people on board. The British research submarine Boaty McBoatface (this is what happens when you let the internet name things) discovered a significant link between Antarctic winds and rising sea temperatures. As the winds have grown stronger because of greenhouse gas buildup and the destruction of the ozone layer, they have caused more turbulence in waters, resulting in rising sea temperatures and sea levels. Not bad, Boaty. But, you know, bad in every other way. Trans author, activist, and television producer Janet Mock signed a multimillion dollar deal with Netflix to write, direct, and executive produce projects that tell stories about underrepresented people. She is the first out trans woman of color to score a deal like this with a major studio.
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Did You See That Thing?
Facebook confirmed this week that it has spent the past year working with 27 nonprofit, tech, and finance partners to create a cryptocurrency called “Libra.” Despite its classification as a cryptocurrency, Libra would be very different than Bitcoin. Facebook imagines it as a “new global currency standard” that’s stable, guaranteed by tangible assets, and part of a larger program that will be able to perform all the functions of a traditional bank (think accounts, loans, ATMs, etc.). Facebook claims it wants to offer the service to benefit the developing world, and its 1.7 billion adults who don’t have access to banking. This, however, is the same logic it used to promote its plan to offer free internet around the world—a plan that came under fire for attempting to make developing countries dependent on Facebook for access to the internet. On top of that, Facebook’s laundry list of privacy scandals, the rampant misinformation on its platform, and the way it’s been used to subvert elections have naturally made people skeptical that the company should be entrusted with vulnerable people’s money. OTOH maybe we should just blindly trust Zuck again for the 40,000th time.
Is That Hope I Feel?
New York lawmakers have agreed to one of the most ambitious climate plans in the world. The legislation, called the “Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act,” calls for the state to eliminate almost all greenhouse gas emissions with the goal of making the state's economy carbon-free by 2050. Currently, New York sources only 60 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources.
Cryptocurrencies are mixed as Bitfinex destroys 500 million USDT, more than half of its treasury supply
After Coindesk accused Bitfinex, a major cryptocurrency exchange and operator of stablecoin Tether (USDT), of publishing trading volume data from, “a market that doesn’t exist,”, Bitfinex responded, saying they do not publish fake numbers. In its article, Coindesk noted that Bitfinex does not offer a USDT/USD pair, however, their exchange reports substantial trading volume on its exchange for the pairing -- at the time of this writing, daily trading volume for USDT/USD on Bitfinex is reported as USD$33,598,474, or 18.30% of USDT’s total 24-hour trading volume. Bitfinex clarified in its rebuttal, saying they reach their daily trading volume calculation for USDT/USD by calculating the sum of USDT deposits and withdrawals to and from Bitfinex. Bitfinex provided a link to the application program interface (API) where this data is supposed to be visible, however, the link did not work at the time of this writing.
As per the Taipei Times, Taiwan is planning to release draft initial coin offering (ICO) regulatory framework by June 2019. The Taiei Times cited Welington Koo, chairman of Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), who spoke at a meeting of the Legislative Yuan Finance Committee, saying, “The more we regulate, themore this new economic behavior wanes.”
Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has officially launched Uganda’s first ever fiat-to-cryptocurrency exchange, as per an official announcement on Medium. Currently, Ugandans are only able to trade Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) through the domestic Ugandan shilling (UGX). Called Binance Uganda, the new fiat-to-cryptocurrency exchange is offering zero-fee trading until November 24th, 2018. According to the company statement, the launch of Binance Uganda is part of Binance’s initiative to contribute to blockchain technology development across the African continent -- shortly after their announcement, Binance’s charity wing donated USD$500,000 aid Uganda.
In a blog post published on Wednesday, Tether, the issuer of stablecoin USDT, announced that it, “redeemed a significant amount,” of USDT from circulation and that it will destroy 500 million USDT from its treasury wallet -- the 500 million destroyed USDT represents a whopping 52.8% of its total treasury supply for future issuances. This news comes after the value of USDT dipped below USD$0.90/token last week and after Circle and Coinbase partnered to list stablecoin USDC on Coinbase. Tether refered readers of the announcement to their white paper, where the firm states, "every tether issued or redeemed, as publicly recorded by the Bitcoin blockchain will correspond to a desposit or withdrawal of funds from the [company's] bank account."
Nasdaq, the world’s second largest stock exchange by market capitalization, has been awarded a new patent to tackle the implementation of blockchain in releasing new information to the media industry. Originally filed in January 2017, the patent references, “an information computer system […] provided for securely releasing time-sensitive information to recipients via a blockchain.” The patent explains the purposed system’s process, saying, “A submitter submits a document to the system and a blockchain transaction is generated and submitted to the blockchain based on the document […] An editor may edit the document and an approver may approve the document for release to the recipients.” This past June, Nasdaq tested a blockchain proof-of-concept system for securities collateral.
Setl, a UK blockchain startup, has received approval from French securities regulators and is set to enter the European Union’s settlement system. Setl aims to launch its Target2-Securities platform, a EUR1 billion network built to span across the European Union and settle securities processed by the European Central Bank. Setl is expected to launch in early 2019.
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FCS) issued a statement today warning investors to be cautious when investing in cryptocurrencies. Documents published on the FSC’s website warn investors that they could be misled by cryptocurrency funds and that investors could mistake cryptocurrency funds for legal public funds that comply with South Korea’s Capital Markets Act. The FSC added that cryptocurrency funds must be approved and registered with the FSC to operate legally -- something no South Korean cryptocurrency fund has done yet.
USD (DXY) up 0.00%, EUR up 0.18%, GBP down 0.11%, JPY up 0.01%, CNY Onshore down 0.41%, CNH Offshore down 0.42%, AUD down 0.40%
VIX down 1.22% to 9.75
Gold up 0.06% to $1,283.60
Silver up 0.08% to $16.84
Copper up 0.43% to $294.20
WTI Crude up 1.15% to $52.74
Brent Crude up 0.90% to $58.42
Natural Gas down 0.07% to $3.06
Corn down 0.35% to $3.53/bu
Wheat down 0.11% to $4.61/bu
Bitcoin up 2.42% to $4,255.00
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.2bps at 1.483%, 10yr yields are up ~3.6bps at 2.346% and 30yr yields are up ~3.3bps at 2.896%
Japan 10yr yields 0.057%, up ~2.8bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.792%, up ~3.3bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.153%, up ~1.6bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.634%, up ~0.8bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.501%, up ~3.7bps on the day
What’s happening this morning? There wasn’t any major news out overnight (once again). Most of the financial media is discussing themes and trends that have been present for weeks – reflation sustainability, inflation firming, central bank tightening schedules, expansionary fiscal policies (US, Germany, Japan, etc.), US politics (prospect of tax passage, etc.), etc. A lot of the commentary seems to have a skeptical tone with regards to the weeks-long reflation moves and this doubt continues to act as kindling for the recent market shifts (positioning and sentiment are playing a role too, esp. as we head into the final days of the month and quarter – recall many had prepared for the SPX to trade poorly in H2:Aug but the opposite happened and the index is now up ~3.7% from its 8/21 low. This has undoubtedly spurred some chasing along the way). As far as Thurs morning trading, things are relatively subdued this morning. Asia’s major indices saw mixed price action – TPX +0.71%, NKY +0.47%, Hang Seng -0.8%, SHCOMP -0.17%, Taiwan TAIEX -0.29%, Korea KOSPI +0.02%, Australia +0.11%, and India +0.1%. There weren’t many huge themes in Asia although the USD rally is creating some anxiety (the DXY surged Mon-Wed and is flattish so far Thurs). Tech stocks in Taiwan were mixed-to-down small. Europe’s major equity indices are flat-to-up small. Banks remain the big upside standouts (both in Europe and the US) as this group more than any other encapsulates the global reflation sentiments (banks, tech, industrials are outperforming in Europe this morning while basic resources, retail, and utilities lag. H&M is one of the weakest stocks in Europe on back of earnings while the USD strength is hitting basic resources). The Treasury weakness continues as 10yr yields rise a further ~3-4bp so far Thurs morning (10yr yields are higher throughout Europe too). US S&P futures are flat-to-down small.
Calendar of events for Thurs 9/28 – the focus will be on German inflation for Sept (8amET), the BOE “20 Years On” conf. in London (at which Carney will speak), US Q2 data revisions (8:30amET), US advance goods trade balance for Aug (8:30amET), Fed speakers (George, Fischer, Bostic), Gary Cohn’s interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box (during the 8amET hour), Paul Ryan’s interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Brady’s comments on tax reform, analyst meetings (AEE and AFL), and earnings (ACN, BBRY, CAG, MKC, MTN, and RAD pre-open and KBH and SGH after the close).
Calendar of events for Fri 9/29 – the focus will be on the China Caixin manufacturing PMI for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning), the German jobs data for Sept (3:55amET), Eurozone CPI for Sept (5amET), US personal income/spending for Aug (8:30amET), the US PCE for Aug (8:30amET), the Chicago PMI for Sept (9:45amET), the final Michigan Confidence numbers for Sept (10amET), Fed speakers (Harker), and analyst meetings (CMP).
Calendar going forward – there aren’t many major scheduled events on the calendar until CQ3 earnings (the week of 10/16 is the first busy one of the season) aside from a few eco numbers (including the US Aug PCE Fri 9/29 and the US Sept jobs report Fri 10/6). The market largely appreciates that tax will be a CQ1:18 event and thus isn’t looking for anything substantive on that front over the coming months. The next big monetary policy events include the ECB (10/26), BOE (11/2), and anything on the Fed staffing front (i.e. when does Thy God-Emperor Trump make a decision on Yellen?).
Top Headlines for Thursday
US politics – there wasn’t anything incremental overnight but a ton of postmortem articles were published on the events this week (tax unveil, Alabama run-off, Corker retirement, healthcare failure, etc.). The tone of most of these articles is cautious with regards to the outlook for the GOP and the party’s agenda – “Alabama defeat weakens and isolates Thy God-Emperor Trump as his problems grow” (http://wapo.st/2xDxquK), “Bannon focused on repeating Alabama, challenging incumbent Republicans across the country” (http://politi.co/2ybnL1C), “Political disruption helps fuel GOP’s woes” (http://on.wsj.com/2wYIYH4), “Tues was a disastrous day for the whole GOP” (http://on.wsj.com/2fsuf0C), “GOP pitches deep tax cuts, w/few details on paying for them” (http://wapo.st/2yuPgPV), “ Thy God-Emperor Trump/GOP tax plan omits details on who pays” (http://politi.co/2yvcKEH), “ Thy God-Emperor Trump and his congressional allies are about to make the trajectory of debt even worse” (http://on.wsj.com/2fsuTLB), etc.
Sen. Bob Corker says tax reform will make healthcare look like ‘a piece of cake’ – The Hill http://bit.ly/2wlgLus
Healthcare/ACA – insurers decide to stay in the ACA exchanges for ’18 despite fears of broad exits – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2yIx4D8.
TWTR more effective than FB in disrupting US election - there is evidence that Twitter may have been used even more extensively than Facebook in the Russian influence campaign last year – NYT http://nyti.ms/2yuUTgW
Internet execs (from FB, GOOGL, and TWTR) have been asked to testify before Congress in the coming weeks – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fTffK4
Thy God-Emperor Trump’s pick to head the DOJ’s antitrust division gets approved by the Senate – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2yttKeo
All about reflation and rotation: what happened on Wed. US stocks saw solid gains overall on Wed but the bigger story was ongoing rotation as the SPX’s ~40bp advance was somewhat overshadowed by the ~2% ramp in the R2K, the ~1.6% climb in the BKX, the 75- 130bp decline in both staples and utilities, the 7bp increase in 10yr yields, and the ~50bp DXY advance. The latest phase of the reflation trade kicked off back on 9/11 and is now in its 3rd week, encouraged along the way by firmer global inflation readings (China, India, UK, US, etc.), hawkish central banks actions/rhetoric (FOMC, BOC, BOE, etc.), and pro-growth policies in the US (the GOP tax blueprint). Thus it isn’t that stocks rallied solely in response to the Republican tax unveil but instead that blueprint helped to exacerbate existing reflation tendencies. Most of the big sectoral moves comported w/the reflation playbook as small caps and financials (esp. banks/brokers) did very well while staples, REITs, utilities, and telecoms lagged. Tech was something of an outlier – normally super-cap tech would lag during big reflation trades but that wasn’t necessarily the case on Wed.
Economic data/monetary policy update for Thurs 9/28. It was a pretty slow morning of news on this front. GfK consumer confidence in Germany for Oct softened slightly (it came in at 10.8 vs. the St 11). Some of the regional inflation numbers in Germany for Sept showed firming M/M (the full German inflation number will hit at 8amET). Eurozone confidence numbers for Sept came in relatively solid this morning (http://bit.ly/2fB5gMz). The New Zealand rate decision was largely as expected (http://bit.ly/2fsBZQb). o Fed’s Rosengren called for “regular and gradual” rate hikes as disinflationary pressures appear temporary while labor markets continue to tighten – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2xD4Tpa
North Korea tensions/challenges – North Korean provocations could increase in Oct, Chinese exports of food to NK spike, US to rotate strategic military assets into South Korea. o North Korea is likely to engage in more provocative behavior in Oct to coincide w/the founding of the North Korean community party and China’s Communist Party Congress. South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18 – Reuters http://reut.rs/2k6dgX1 o US strategic assets to be rotated into South Korea – the will send “strategic” military assets to South Korea on a more regular basis to better deter North Korea – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2yIoLHu o China’s agricultural exports to North Korea spiked in Jul and Aug; the increase in food shipments shows the resilience of ties between the two countries – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2xHTq9F
Japan election outcome grows cloudier as Party of Hope gathers strength - the biggest opposition Democratic Party on Thurs said it would step aside to let its candidates run under the Party of Hope banner – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fsHYVk
Brexit negotiations – there are signs of a thawing in the EU-UK Brexit negotiation process as the EU makes a small concession – Bloomberg http://bit.ly/2wYsLlj
Company-specific news update for Thurs morning 9/28 – there are a few items in focus this morning including Toshiba/Bain, H&M, EFX, HAIN, and more. o Toshiba – a deal is (finally) signed – Toshiba struck a formal deal to sell its memory unit to a Bain-led group for $17.7B. The Bain consortium includes AAPL, Dell, STX, Hoya, and Hynix. The two sides hope to close the transaction by Mar. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2wYGopc o STX announces details on its participation in the Toshiba deal; STX has committed to provide up to $1.25 billion in financing to support the acquisition. Seagate expects to enter into a long-term NAND supply agreement with Toshiba Memory that will provide continuity of raw NAND for Seagate's expanding SSD product portfolio. Seagate expects this transaction to be accretive to its earnings. o AAPL not giving up fully on LCDs – AAPL could wind up buying advanced LCD panels from Japan Display next year, suggesting the co doesn’t plan on shifting its entire product lineup to OLED. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2wm6EWp o HAIN strikes agreement w/activist Engaged Capital – the agreement will overhaul the board and potentially opens the door to a sale of the company (the board will form a group to consider strategic alternatives). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xLOzo1 o EFX – the co’s acting CEO has an editorial in the WSJ this morning – “On behalf of Equifax, I’m sorry” – the article announces a series of steps and actions aimed at rectifying the fallout from the recent hack. http://on.wsj.com/2yvbLUX o H&M – the stock is one of the weakest in all of Europe after reporting disappointing earnings. o HUN, Clariant – White Tale Holdings, the activist group seeking to block the merger, has increased its stake in Clariant slightly – Reuters http://reut.rs/2xCiooZ
Company-specific news update from Wed night 9/27. There wasn’t anything major other than a few SMID-cap earnings (CMTL, JBL, PIR, PRGS, and THO) and none were particularly controversial. JBL beat for its FQ4/Aug period and while FQ1/Nov EPS was guided a bit under the St this stock has already come off a decent amount from its highs on the recent AAPL anxiety (and thus should be fine off the report). PRGS’s FQ3 numbers were inline w/the upside preannouncement and FQ4 was guided inline. PIR’s report was fine but the guidance fell a bit short of expectations. Away from earnings, a group of US senators are calling for an investigation into the recent deal struck between AGN and a Native American tribe (http://nyti.ms/2xGRxtP). According to Bloomberg, Novartis is considering a bid for AAAP (https://bloom.bg/2xHOjGa). What could move the market? Expectations on key topics/events
Taxes – now what? An update on the path forward. With the GOP tax blueprint out in the open Congress will now get down to the hard work of filling in the details and getting a bill to Thy God-Emperor Trump’s desk. However, a budget resolution still needs to pass before anything can get done on the tax front (as this will contain reconciliation instructions permitting the Senate to utilize a simple majority vote on tax). The House should have an easier time moving a tax bill (it probably isn’t shocking to think they could pass something by Thanksgiving) but the Senate is a bigger problem. Sen. Hatch has made several comments on tax that people should be paying more attention to (including that he will essentially ignore the 9/27 blueprint and write his own bill) and Sen. Corker also has expressed skepticism (he said tax reform would make healthcare look like “a piece of cake”). It’s important to remember that the Senate GOP majority is 1) small and 2) divided (as was evidenced by healthcare failing twice) and one of those two descriptions will become more apt after 12/12/17 (the date of the Alabama special Senate election). Once the Senate does move something it still has to be reconciled w/the House and voted on all over again. Taking all this into account, it seems like tax will be a CQ1 event at best. Beyond Mar ’18 the focus will shift towards the Nov mid-terms and that tends to freeze the legislative process. And if there are a lot of aggressive GOP primaries (something which could happen given Moore’s victory in Alabama’s run-off) that could slow the legislative process even more.
Taxes – what do investors expect? The GOP blueprint on 9/27 is being looked at as an opening “best case” bid that will likely differ substantially from the ultimate bill (to the extent there even is one). The final corporate rate will probably wind up being around ~25- 27% while the individual changes will focus more on the lower-end of the income spectrum (doubling the standard deduction, higher child credit, etc.) without meaningfully adjusting deduction rules or consolidating the existing bracket structure. “Repatriation” will happen in some form but the mechanism proposed in the GOP blueprint is quite complex. o Repatriation mechanics – the language in the GOP tax blueprint concerning repatriation and foreign earnings is somewhat confusing. What it sounds like they are proposing is: 1) all int’l earnings accumulated to this point will be hit w/a 1x tax assessment (note – this is different from the int’l cash balances companies report in their filings). The 1x tax rate isn’t specified but most assume it will be somewhere around 10% and companies can pay it over the course of a few years; 2) going forward the aim is to shift to a quasi-territorial system whereby all foreign profits of US companies will be taxed at a reduced rate (it isn’t clear what that reduced rate will be). It sounds like this tax will be imposed regardless of whether the money is actually repatriated. Bottom Line: this system would be an improvement over the current one BUT the proposed changes are very complex and this GOP blueprint today is a lot different from the George W Bush-era 1x repatriation holiday of last decade.
Gov’t funding – the current CR (continuing resolution) will fund the US gov’t until 12/8.
Debt ceiling – the debt ceiling will be suspended until 12/8 but during that time Treasury will refresh its extraordinary measures and buy itself additional months (McConnell recently told the NYT that the debt ceiling won’t become binding again until “well into” 2018). o The debt ceiling – Thy God-Emperor Trump and Schumer have apparently agreed to pursue a deal that would permanently eliminate the debt ceiling (although it’s unclear whether this will actually happen given the enormously busy agenda facing Washington in Dec).
Infrastructure spending – the F18 budget may include nominal funding for an “infrastructure bank” but no one anticipates a major infrastructure spending initiative.
Fed staffing – it may not be until later this year before Thy God-Emperor Trump unveils his intention for the Fed chair. The WSJ on 9/6 said Gary Cohn’s chances of getting the job had declined while Yellen could be asked to stay (CNN echoed that reporting on 9/7) and Bloomberg (on 9/7) says Thy God-Emperor Trump is considering as many as 6 additional people to become chair, including Kevin Warsh, Glenn Hubbard, John Taylor, Lawrence Lindsey, Richard Davis, and John Allison. Recent media reports suggest the frontrunners are Yellen and Warsh. Note that in addition to the chair decision, Thy God-Emperor Trump has several additional positions to fill at the Fed (Fischer’s resignation announcement on 9/6 created the latest opening).
Calendar of events to watch for Mon Oct 2
Calendar for the week of 10/2 – the main focus this week will be on the initial Oct eco numbers (ISMs/PMIs, auto sales, and US jobs) but otherwise it should be pretty quiet as investors await the start of CQ3 earnings (banks kick off the season on Thurs 10/12 but the heavy volume of release doesn’t begin until the week of 10/16).
Calendar for Mon 10/2 – the focus will be on the China NBS manufacturing/nonmanufacturing PMIs for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning 9/30), Eurozone manufacturing PMIs for Sept (4amET), Eurozone unemployment numbers for Aug (5amET), US manufacturing PMI for Sept (9:45amET), US manufacturing ISM for Sept (10amET), US construction spending for Aug (10amET), Thy God-Emperor Trump’s deregulation speech at the White House, and Fed speakers (Kaplan).
Calendar for Tues 10/3 – the focus will be on the Eurozone PPI for Aug (5amET), US auto sales for Sept (JPMorgan is modeling a SAAR of 17.4MM), analyst meetings (F/Ford, INTU, NTAP, and SHW), the WFC CEO testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, the EFX former CEO testimony before the House, and earnings (PAYX and LEN pre-open and IDT after the close).
Calendar for Wed 10/4 – the focus will be on the Eurozone services PMI for Sept (4amET), Eurozone retail sales for Aug (5amET), the RBI rate decision (5amET), the US ADP jobs report for Sept (8:15amET), the US services PMI for Sept (9:45amET), the US services ISM for Sept (10amET), Yellen’s comments (3:15pmET), analyst meetings (BWXT, BXP, MNK, and TTD), the EFX former CEO testimony before the Senate, and earnings (AYI, MON, PEP, RPM, and Tesco PLC pre-open and CAFD and RECN after the close).
Calendar for Thurs 10/5 – the focus will be on the ECB minutes (7:30amET), US factory orders/durable goods for Aug (10amET), Fed speakers (Williams, Harker, George), analyst meetings (BKH, CLX, LUK, and TWOU), and earnings (ISCA and STZ pre-open and COST, HELE, and YUMC after the close).
Calendar for Fri 10/6 – the focus will be on Germany factory orders for Aug (2amET), the US jobs report for Sept (8:30amET), US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug (10amET), US consumer credit for Aug (3pmET), and Fed speakers (Bostic, Kaplan, and Bullard). Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
Tillerson to travel to China – Sept 28-30.
US inflation – the Aug PCE will hit Fri 9/29.
Catalonia parliament independence vote – Sun 10/1.
China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
Autos – US Sept auto sales get reported Tues 10/3; Ford/F’s CEO will also be giving a strategic update on that same day (this will be the first major update from the new CEO at Ford).
WFC CEO appearing before Senate Banking Committee on Tues 10/3.
EFX former CEO Richard Smith testifying before House panel on Tues 10/3 and before a Senate panel on Wed 10/4.
Yellen delivers opening remarks at Community Banking conf. Wed 10/4. 3:15pmET.
ECB meeting minutes – Thurs 10/5.
US jobs report for Sept – Fri 10/6.
North Korea - South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18 (Reuters).
WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
PG shareholder meeting – Tues 10/10 (decision to be made on Peltz’s board seat request).
Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Iran – Thy God-Emperor Trump will certify whether Iran is complying w/the nuclear agreement around mid- Oct.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
Japan – the country will hold snap elections on Sun 10/22.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting.
US Q3 GDP report – Fri 10/27
Fed meeting – decision Wed 11/1 (no press conf. or supplemental).
BOE decision – Thurs 11/2. The BOE is expected to hike rates at this meeting.
Thy God-Emperor Trump trip to China – he is scheduled to visit China in November.
GE – the co will likely hold an analyst meeting in Nov at which it will provide a refresh of its long-term financial guidance.
OPEC meeting – the next formal OPEC leaders meeting is Nov 30 (a decision on extending the production agreement beyond Mar ’18 could be reached at this gathering).
US gov’t funding/debt ceiling – current legislation funds the gov’t and suspends the debt ceiling until 12/8 (the debt ceiling is unlikely to become binding again until “well into” 2018).
Alabama special Senate election – Tues 12/12.
Fed meeting – decision Wed Dec 13. There will be a press conf. and supplemental. The Fed is expected to hike rates at this meeting.
Dassault Systemes has agreed to buy U.S. peer Exa Corp in a deal valued at about $400 million – Reuters http://reut.rs/2ftGHxm
HAIN strikes agreement w/activist Engaged Capital – the agreement will overhaul the board and potentially opens the door to a sale of the company (the board will form a group to consider strategic alternatives). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xLOzo1
HUN, Clariant – White Tale Holdings, the activist group seeking to block the merger, has increased its stake in Clariant slightly – Reuters http://reut.rs/2xCiooZ
Toshiba – a deal is (finally) signed – Toshiba struck a formal deal to sell its memory unit to a Bain-led group for $17.7B. The Bain consortium includes AAPL, Dell, STX, Hoya, and Hynix. The two sides hope to close the transaction by Mar. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2wYGopc
Thy God-Emperor Trump’s pick to head the DOJ’s antitrust division gets approved by the Senate – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2yttKeo
Westinghouse Electric – Blackstone and Apollo have teamed to make a bid for bankrupt Westinghouse – Reuters http://reut.rs/2wXfAFR
Full catalyst list
Thurs Sept 28 – Eurozone confidence measures for Sept. 5amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – German inflation for Sept. 8amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US Q2 data revisions (GDP, PCE, etc.). 8:30amET.
Thurs Sept 28 – US advance goods trade balance for Aug. 8:30amET.