EUR to USD Forecast: down to 1.104? Euro to Dollar

Pi Network! This golden project is an opportunity.

  1. What is Pi Network?
Pi Network is a virtual currency that can only be mined or mined on a phone, but does not consume device resources like other free mining applications. Previously Pi Network could include mining applications such as Electroneum (ETN), but this application consumes your device resources to decode the algorithm (Electroneum uses cryptonight algorithm). With Pi Network, when you dig coins will feel the device does not heat up. In addition, you can also turn off the application or turn off the network and still be able to mine coins every 24 hours.

Note:

Pi Network is still in BETA. The project is still in progress which means that there will still be errors and some details of the project are still changing. While many cryptocurrency projects start from pure theory, Pi Network seeks to balance theory with design and people-centered (or experiment with real people to best meet their needs). ). The project appreciates your patience and welcomes your input as we work together to develop products that best meet community needs. Pi does NOT give you free money. This is a long-term project whose success depends on the common contribution of its members. Pi helps people capture economic value, which is held by banks, technology giants (e.g. Facebook, Amazon) and other intermediaries. Pi depends on the contribution of the members. Therefore Pi NetWork is not suitable for those who want to make money quickly.

2. Is Pi Network scam?

Pi is not a hoax. This is an attempt by a group of Stanford University alumni to spread the cryptocurrency to more people. Pi Network's core team is led by two Stanford PhDs and one Stanford MBA, all of which help build the blockchain community at Stanford. There is no guarantee that the project will succeed. However, Pi Network will work hard to make common dreams a reality, while upholding the highest standards of transparency. You can learn more about Pi's core team on the app, or simply by typing these people 's names into the Google search page:
- Nicolas Kokkalis: Head of Technology
- Department Chengdiao Fan: Vincent
- McPhillip Product Manager: Community Manager
📷
https://preview.redd.it/rozcs5h1p4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5952d879514c33e643958aab8d5ca5ae382ba41

3. How to make money with Pi Network?

How to exploit Pi
Pi Network does not call you to invest or do anything. Your job is very simple, you just need to have a phone, download the Pi Network app and create an account, press the Start button daily and the PI digging will take place even if your computer is not connected to the internet . You also do not need to open the active application. Pi does not affect your phone performance, does not drain your battery or use your network data. To start earning Pi, check the app every 24 hours and press the lightning button to start mining. You can increase your hourly Pi rate by inviting friends and family to join the community. After 3 days of exploitation, you can increase your income even more by building your security circle, which contributes to the overall security of the network. And remember, veterans of the network have a higher rate of extraction than the members who come after them.
Why are veteran members exploiting more?
Pi's goal is to become a widely distributed and widely used electronic currency in the world. To achieve that goal, Pi encourages members to contribute early to ensure the success of the project (eg network protection and development). To reflect the importance of early contributions, the rate of extraction decreases as more people join the network. At this point, the base mining rate will be halved every time the number of active users increases by 10 times. This ratio will be reduced to zero when the network reaches a certain number of users (for example, 10 million or 100 million). At the time, like Bitcoin, miners would continue to receive rewards with transaction fees, rather than being rewarded with new coins.
What is the Pi Network security circle?
The security circle is a group of 3-5 trusted people built by each Pi member, to prevent fraudulent transactions. While cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin secure their ledgers by forcing mining companies to burn energy (proof of work), Pi still guarantees its ledger when members of the network prove trust with each other. Pi contributors guarantee each other by building up security groups of 3-5 members whom they deem reliable. The security circle should include people you trust not to make fraudulent transactions. The cyber security circles form a global trust chart to determine who can trust to conduct transactions on the Pi ledger.
https://preview.redd.it/rmekfcizo4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=92a054233ec9c1844b32c24b0a06d0a47e9302b1

4. What is the Pi price?

Pi is worth approximately 0 dollars / euro. Yes! If the price is $ 0, then we dig PI do? Also you wonder when PIs will be valuable? While everyone thinks that PIs are not valuable and do not participate, just like when BITCOIN 2008 had no value. If you are a PI holder PI holders have two options to convert PIs into cash:
- Buy goods and services directly with your Pi. Pi Network is building a peer-to-peer market where members can directly spend Pi to buy goods and services. Pi Network aims to start a bank transfer test in its application immediately after Q42019.
- Exchange Pi for cash on cryptocurrency exchanges. Pi will be able to be traded during Phase 3 of the project (such as when launching the Mainnet). At that time, exchanges may choose to list Pi. At this point, Pi's core team focuses on implementing the right technical roadmap to reach phase 3.
(I still remember in 2015, in MMO communities, competing to receive free coins called Raiblocks (XRB) by typing captcha, each type of such a lot of XRB, it can be said that the day that XRB has no price value, almost 0. Later in early 2018 when Raiblocks changed its name to NANO project, the peak of 1 NANO coin reached 34 USD, sweeping away the dream of millionaires of MMO people, because at XRB, they sell very cheaply for each other. You can refer to the NANO price chart below)
https://preview.redd.it/r8rll5eyo4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=235368ab0b53c5e1b09c2c88bd13e345ae26eaae

5. Download the Pi Network application

Pi Network currently supports both Android and iOS operating systems, you can access the Google Play app for Android or App Store for iOS and search by keyword "Pi Network" or click directly at the following link:
https://minepi.com/150791

6. Create an account and dig Pi

Step 1: After downloading the application, you open the application to register for Pi Network account

https://preview.redd.it/n74m2cbxo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=33dd4f81f6cb952c065457dc1d3d53a20df739bd
In this step you can optionally register your account with Facebook or your phone number. However, you should choose the phone number to make it easier to authenticate your Pi Network account later. Choose your location, enter your phone number and click Go.

https://preview.redd.it/tkh0yo2wo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=341f067a7269a5b0bc7eb9d04698d8950c06dbff
Then you enter the password and confirm the password. Note that the password must have uppercase characters, special characters like! @ # $% Or your number. Done, click Submit

https://preview.redd.it/pmp9dzjto4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8712183677f5356ac79fd279e98de4e291e893c7
Then enter the First Name and Last Name.

https://preview.redd.it/f5auh8dso4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=e26c5c9b15548beb0edcbd4df2ac22d27a548405
Finally, the Username (this is the name for me to log into the Pi Network application, don't forget this). After filling all information, click Submit to move to the final step. In this last step, you enter the referral code is @ Leviet74 (this is my code). However, you can enter anyone's referral code. But when entering my code, I am very thankful and if there is any problem that needs support I will be very enthusiastic.
So you have completed the Pi Network registration, now you just leave it to receive coins daily, or go referrals to others to earn more Pi.

https://preview.redd.it/2gio8gxqo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=1682a4a32e54c60db542699b53bbb5287fa5a8bd
Guide to dig Pi

https://preview.redd.it/1ftbk7qpo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e3af6d16e7a47535957387e8e409bbca4d72d0c
Click Get Started and click on the lightning image to start digging PI.

https://preview.redd.it/70q1n5poo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0c0dc927027d7ad4c1999b4ae9c9a5daf9b6896
The amount of Pi you mine per hour is shown in the Ambassador section. If your lower members mine Pi, you will receive (25% x 0.39pi x the number of people). However, if they are not online for more than 1 day, you will not receive Pi from them, so you press Ping Inactive to push them to notify the application access.

https://preview.redd.it/ptu36tmmo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb70cc8e19ecdb9ccbaa36e5ee52be6dcc68e842
Add people to the security circle
After 3 days of digging Pi, you will open a security circle, what it is, please read the above article, here you can add acquaintances to dig more Pi together.

https://preview.redd.it/84bnhfbjo4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8aa75b135d4cf00d75a6f23ad1933cdead901d9
Verify Pi Network account
You need to verify your account so that stage 4 of the project can be withdrawn. To verify Pi Network, access Profile and select Verify as shown:

https://preview.redd.it/h6pkp9tgo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c0a2677b7bed0d39a75a1e825449f4b4503c990
There are two options for verifying your account: getting a verification code (only applicable to the US and Canada) or sending a message to Pi Network. You will have to use option 2 and press Start.
https://preview.redd.it/woyptgmeo4351.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=d67d1b01deb51d038c1411177a1dd7e0274dfd4e
Then click Open SMS to let Pi Network compose a message to send a 4-digit code.

https://preview.redd.it/ohu1d19ao4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1c8a726b5938280a58f1343feb73223b02ba66
Note that Pi will generate 4-digit code itself, you do not edit anything and just click Submit.
https://preview.redd.it/orymp2vzn4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0002a9841fbc4db8ed5a3a040d1ddbd71500e14
If the Pi application verifies that you have successfully verified your account.

7. How to draw Pi?

You cannot withdraw the Pi. You will be able to withdraw Pi or exchange Pi for other currencies during Phase 3 of the project, when Pi switches to a completely decentralized blockchain. Phase 1 of Project Pi is on March 14, 2019 (Pi Day). In Stage 1, your balance is being recorded to wait for the day Pi reaches the mainnet (Phase 3). The transfer or withdrawal of Pi is restricted until the mainnet launch, to prevent fraudulent actions, such as clone users to dig Pi, then transfer Pi to another account and legalize the process. verify your account and use that nefarious Pi number.

8. Should you dig Pi on multiple phones?

No, you SHOULD NOT dig PI on many devices. Pi Network adheres to a strict rule, meaning that only one account can be used per person. Pi Network uses a multi-pronged strategy to ensure that fake accounts cannot exploit Pi
First, the Pi network uses Google Recaptcha v3 to know which devices are operated by humans or robots. (This technology is completely invisible to most users, because they are real people, but robots can see the captcha if the google algorithm captures them.) Over time, Pi Network is developing a machine learning algorithm based on actual user exploitation behavior to predict bots.
Second, the Pi consensus algorithm (security circle) makes it easy to detect fake accounts. The fake account will not have enough real people to link to them through the security circle. Thus fake accounts will have less linkage with the rest of the network. This anomaly is easy to detect with computer algorithms.
Finally, when Pi enters Stage 3 and 4 - Mainnet, only authenticated accounts can exist. Buy

9. Where to buy and sell Pi?

Currently, there is only 1 exchange, AACoin listed PI (https://www.aacoin.com/trade/PI\_USDT) in the form of short purchase and sale, meaning that they buy and sell PI but do not actually own any PI. Because PIs have not been withdrawn until entering phase 3 (mainnet), all PI trading platforms are fraudulent. The Pi Core team also issued a warning. In addition, users should not buy and sell Pi transactions on the black market through the sale of accounts, because all of us have not been able to price Pi, so there are many potential risks.
https://preview.redd.it/d6lzfxfxn4351.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=c61ce72af1a56af4367c32b441ddfe25b9462a30
submitted by thanhbkpr to u/thanhbkpr [link] [comments]

Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY
USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread
EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment
Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long?
USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Why I am Not Investing in Bitcoin

What is Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a type of digital currency that is “mined” using computers. These computers use time and energy to decipher algorithms which lead to coins circulating into the currency. Some types of coins, like Bitcoin have a fixed number of coins that can ever be mined while others are limitless. As more coins are mined, the next coin becomes harder to mine, and it will take more computer power to find.
Blockchain is a new technology that has come from Bitcoin and it is essentially a record of transactions of every bitcoin. This list of transactions is an evolving record and is added to simultaneously with any transaction. This means that anyone can see any transaction. The value of this technology is that it is decentralized, and no one really controls it. There is nobody to profit on the movement of value and it should create a more efficient market. However, central banks and financial institutions around the globe are beginning to develop their own technology. It will help these institutions become more efficient, and they hope to better serve their clients.
Why I am not investing
Bitcoin and other forms of cryptocurrencies are a bubble. Because of this, I will not invest in them. The long-term outlook of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies does not seem great to me, and I will explain why.
The Anatomy of a Bubble
According to James Montier, in his article Behavioral Investing: A Practioner’s Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance, there are five stages of a bubble, and I believe we are currently in the third stage. The five stages are: displacement, credit creation, euphoria, financial distress, and revulsion.
Displacement
Displacement is a market reaction that creates profitability in one area, while shutting down profitability in other areas. Now, this does not have to actually occur to begin a bubble. The perceived idea that it will occur in the future is what starts the bubble. The Dot Com bubble started because the internet was going to revolutionize the way that people do business. The same can be said for Bitcoin. It may one day revolutionize the way people exchange money, but how? Like the Dot Com bubble, investors are throwing money into cryptocurrencies without really knowing the magnitude of change it will create.
Along the lines of not knowing the magnitude of change is the fact that these currencies are unregulated. At any time one government or another can setup laws that either hurt the viability of the currency, or outright ban it. A popular conception of cryptocurrencies is that they are used to exchange money without any government intervention or insight. They are used to launder money or exchange illegal goods on a black market behind the backs of regulators and law enforcement. All it will take is enough bad press of the currency for law makers to act on it. When ransomware thieves around the globe are asking to be paid in Bitcoin, politicians will eventually denounce the currency to win more votes.
Credit Creation
This stage of the bubble is formed when there is monetary expansion and/or credit creation. This fuels the fire, and causes the bubble to inflate. As more money is thrown into the asset, prices go up. As prices go up, it fuels even more expansion because people are seeing great returns and want to get in on the action. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Currently, United States investment assets are inflated, especially in the bond market (read “Unintended Consequences of Easy Monetary Policy“). Highly liquid markets fuel asset bubbles, and in this case, they are also fueling Bitcoin. As investors have more money to invest, they need to figure out where to put it. If they cannot find an asset that looks great because valuations are so high, they turn and look at Bitcoin and think “Wow it has returned 2, 3, 400%, I want in!” This in turn raises Bitcoin prices and makes another investor put their money in too. This is the self-fulfilling prophecy. Investors perceive the asset as being a good investment when really it just the demand for the asset pushing prices up, not value.
Euphoria
Euphoria is the third stage of the bubble, and I believe Bitcoin is in this stage. This stage is when the returns of the asset are so great that people invest because of the fear of missing out. Their friends tell them that they made all of this money in Bitcoin, they see charts popping up on their newsfeeds that say “If you invested $10k 7 years ago, you would have over $700 million…” This inflates the bubble. People see these images and get upset that they have not already invested. $10k into $700 Million? Who doesn’t want a piece of that action?
Another euphoric characteristic of cryptocurrencies is that every company seems to want their own. Companies are having ICOs, or initial coin offerings, where they start their own cryptocurrency and raise money through the offerings. Burger King released a version of cryptocurrency called the WhopperCoin. This is just like the Dot Com bubble. “Companies” opened a website and went public. Investors threw cash at them simply because they had a website. The same is happening with these ICOs. Investors are throwing cash everywhere with the hope that one of them will be the next Bitcoin and turn their $10k into $700 million.
Financial Distress and Revulsion
These are the last two stages of a bubble. Financial Distress is characterized as insiders see the end is near, and they start to get out. They sell their shares because they know they are not sustainable, and that share prices are going to fall. I am not aware of insiders of Bitcoin, but eventually people are going to cash out, and it is going to cause enough damage to scare everyone out of it. This will cause a spillover into the other types of cryptocurrency, and only the very strong will be able to survive.
Revulsion is when people are hurt by the bubble popping. They are hurt so badly that they refuse to go back into the investment, even if it becomes a good value. This is the final stage of a bubble.
Some readers may be thinking that the I am wrong and that this will change the future. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will change the way people pay for groceries, pay for movie tickets, and pay for their Amazon orders. They may not see or they simply ignore the similarities of Bitcoin to the Dot Com bubble. Well here is my rationale on why a global currency, without the rule of government, will not occur.
Future Global Currency?
If you were to ask me while I was taking my college economics classes “What is the quickest way to make markets more efficient?” I would have told you a global currency. A global currency would get rid of exchange rates, it would make transactions a lot easier, and it would make investing easier as well. It makes markets more efficient because there is no reason to worry about exchange rates. You would be able to go to any country and spend the same currency as your home country. It is like having a Euro in the Euro Zone, but for the entire world. The problem with the Euro however, is that some countries want a strong Euro while others want a weak Euro at the same time. If the Euro was not competing against other currencies, none of that would matter though. You would also be able to order anything online from anywhere, and not have to worry about exchange rates. Have you tried to order something you had to pay for in a different currency? It is intimidating and it will usually cost you extra money in fees.
It would make investing easier as well. A global currency means that you do no need to worry about exchange rates and revenue return. Suppose a company is in a US Dollar strengthening environment. As the dollar strengthens their goods become more expensive. The exchange rate works negatively in their favor, and it reduces their returns. the company either leaves prices the same, and sell less, or they lower their prices and their margins take a hit. Either way, the company loses revenue and their balance sheets weaken. The current monetary structure requires analysts to determine the future strength or weakness of the currency, and how that will affect revenue streams. A global currency can eliminate this. So with all the good a global currency can achieve, why won’t we have one in the near future?
If there is anything the recent Brexit vote and election of President Trump have taught us is that people do not trust immigrants, foreigners, and globalization. Books can be written, and many have been, on why these are all important and good factors to a capitalist economy. However, not enough people understand, or want to understand how these help. Because of this, a global currency cannot be achieved.
A global currency would have to be run by someone. It would require a panel of people from around the world to make monetary and policy decisions. There is enough people that feel the United Nations, NATO, and International Monetary Fund do more harm to their country then good. They have elected a president that threatens to restructure, leave, or pull funding from these organizations. They see globalization as a bad thing, so how could they ever go for a global currency? Simply put, there will be foreign people making decisions, and because of this they will never trust it.
The Future of Bitcoin
Left unregulated Bitcoin may stay around, but only to fill a niche market of money laundering and black market deals. Once it is regulated, it is hard to see what it becomes. It may become an internet currency, where users can only purchase these coins to do a transaction, but most of their funds remain in a normal currency.
Blockchain, on the other hand, will stick around. The technology is already being invested in by most big banks, and even the Federal Reserve. This tool will make financial institutions much more efficient. If it can be properly implemented, bank processes will be cut down. This will save time, and hopefully keep extra dollars in their consumers accounts.
Thanks for reading and happy trading!
Go to www.brtechnicals.com/blog to read more articles like this one!
submitted by BR-Technicals to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Have another perspective about Electroneum supply and decimal points! (RE-POST/reformat)

Argument 1: It is wrong that less number of decimals = less supply
Let starts with the background of the debate:
Hypothesis 1: Electroneum (ETN) has less supply than Bitcoin (BTC)
Hypothesis 2: BTC has less supply than ETN
The argument of Hypothesis 1 is that BTC has 8 “decimal points” and ETN only 2 “decimal points” which bring the argument to something like this:
1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC
1 mETN = 0.01 ETN
Max supply of BTC is 21 Million, which is equal to 21 * 1014 satoshi.
Max supply of ETN is 21 Billion which is equal to 21 * 1011 mETN.
Which means ETN’s total supply is 1/1000 of BTC’s.
The argument of Hypothesis 2 is that the “decimal points” is just “fractional notation” and it is not significant in the calculation of supply.
Max supply of BTC is 21 Million BTC
Max supply of ETN is 21 Billion ETN
Which means BTC’s total supply is 1/1000 of ETN’s.
At the beginning when Richard Ells explain about the 2 decimal points, I immediately thought: “No, you can’t do that!” “The fraction is insignificant; how can you include that into the calculation of total supply?”
So, for quite a while, just the same as other people I tend to believe Hypothesis 2 is right and this is quite disturbing to think that ETN has this “flaw”.
Then I came to a realization that I am thinking in technical/engineering formula concept and try to forced it into a dynamic currency calculation.
This is a big flaw in hypothesis 2 argument, because we are using Math (as in pure Math calculation) perspective instead of the understanding of how Currency behaves or works.
In Math, the unit of numbers is a standard, where 1 (100) is the lowest denominator, and decimal points are just the “fraction of the unit”, which gives the argument that no matter what is the length of the fraction, 21 Million will still be less than 21 Billion.
But we are not talking/discussing about “just numbers” here, we are talking about a Currency.
Currency has what is called as “circulating denomination unit”, and every currency has the lowest circulating denomination unit. For US Dollar and UK Pound, it is 1 cent or a penny. In Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar, it is 5 cents (5 cents coin).
So, when we talk about BTC has 8 decimal points and ETN has 2 decimal points, we are not just talking about fraction of unit, we are talking about the “lowest circulating denomination unit” of a currency.
Consider this:
Let say that ETN and BTC mining is getting harder and harder. The lowest unit a miner can earn is 0.01 ETN in Electroneum supply and 0.00000001 BTC in Bitcoin supply (we are not talking about price at the moment, but focus on supply).
With 0.01 as the lowest unit that can be mined in ETN, that means for ETN to reach max supply is 21 Billion/0.01 or 21 * 1011.
With 0.00000001 as the lowest unit that can be mined in BTC, that means for BTC to reach max supply is 21 Million/0.00000001 or 21 * 1014.
Which simply means ETN will reach max supply faster, hence lower supply (or vice versa).
If we are talking about token, then arguably Hypothesis 2 can be right, because tokens are just token; and they are not designed to be a currency, there are significant differences.
Electroneum is designed as a currency and projected to be the “de-facto mass adopted” currency. So, think about it as a currency, NOT token.
Let’s get further into this with some examples of “real” (i.e.: fiat) currencies.
We know that currently US Dollar is one of the most (if not the most) dominant and popular currencies (fiat currencies). At the time of writing, these are the exchange rates of USD (US Dollar) to some other currencies (source: xe.com):
1 IDR (Indonesian Rupiah) = 0.0000736762 USD (US Dollar)
1 USD = 13572.90414000722 IDR
1 VND (Vietnamese Dong) = 0.0000440036 USD (US Dollar)
1 USD = 22725.4133752693 VND
Argument 2: The 2 decimal point in Electroneum is a flaw?
Now, let’s talk about the lowest transactional/circulating denomination unit of USD. It is $0.01 USD, which is represented by a penny or 1 cent coin.
Have you ever heard anyone say: “Hey, because USD lowest denomination unit is $0.01, this doesn’t make sense, this is a flaw. How am I going to exchange 100 IDR to USD? Because based on the exchange rate, 100 IDR is 0.0073762, it is not even 1 cent USD.
The answer is you don’t. People (currency users) behaviour change, and they adjust to it.
Currency is dynamic and involves people’s behaviour, not a static Math numbers.
If you go to Bali (Bali is in Indonesia), the most common lowest denomination unit of IDR in circulation is Rp.500 (IDR). There might be 200, 100, 50 IDR in circulation, but people don’t use them much. I saw some drivers (Taxi or Uber) using 500 IDR as “parking fee” or as “small change”, some “parking operators” even say that 500 IDR is not enough for parking fee, it has to be 1000 or 2000 IDR or even more.
Let say you come back from Bali with 10000 IDR left in your pocket. So, you go to bank to convert 10000 IDR to USD. You will get a weird looking face from the Teller trying to say “Are you serious?”
Why? Because it is not practical or common practice to exchange 10000 IDR to USD (in cash), as it is less than 1 USD (not including fee/commission). They EXPECT you to exchange a much larger amount of IDR.
Argument 3: The 2 decimal point will limit the price of Electroneum to something like $100, so 0.01 ETN will still be $1
Consider this:
I never heard anyone say: “Oh no, this 2 decimal points in USD will limit the price of USD, so 1 USD will never go beyond 100 or 1000 IDR.
The fact is, in the 90’s, 1 USD was around 1000 IDR or maybe even less, and now it is more than 13000 IDR.
How can a 2 decimal points affect the price or limit the price of a currency? I cannot understand the argument.
And this is just a fiat currency, as we all know that crypto currency is more “explosive” in creating price trend.
Borrowing some examples from fiat currency again, does this mean that people will never use calculation that is beyond 2 decimal points (like 3 or more decimal points)?
No, not necessarily, I believe more decimal points (something like 4 decimal points or even finer) are used in calculation of interest, loans, in exchanges, etc. Yet, it doesn’t deny the fact that the circulating denomination unit only has 2 decimal point.
Currency is dynamic, people and businesses will find one way or another to adjust with the price and denomination unit.
For example, in the old days when cash was king, when someone buy something in a shop with price of 80 cents, paid with 1 dollar bill. Then, the owner of the shop realized that he/she runs out of 20 cents coin and other less value coins. The owner of the shop will try to offer candy or chocolate or other cheap items as replacement for the change. The buyer might actually be happy with that because the buyer might appreciate candy or chocolate more than the spare change or coins.
In some payment systems, they mathematically rounded the number to the closest denominator units, like 5 cents or 10 cents.
In term of ETN, if necessary, when the price is skyrocketing. I believe, there will be some options, including creating “sub-currency”, akin to “Dollar coins”. You can buy something in ETN and get the “sub-currency” as a change. The sub-currency can either be pegged to ETN value or not, that can be defined later in the dynamic.
Argument 4: Technology affects the price of currency. Really?
Consider this article or infographic: https://illicittrade.com/infographics/worlds-most-counterfeited-currencies/
US Dollar is considered as the one of the world’s most counterfeited currency.
Then, consider another article: https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0412/the-most-counterfeit-proof-currencies.aspx
“ International Association of Currency Affairs (IACA) holds an awards ceremony for currencies and individuals that have made great leaps in protecting the integrity of currencies and the technologies that go into creating and manufacturing them. In 2011, the IACA voted the Bank of Uganda as the winner of the best new banknote.”
Yet, 1 UGX = 0.000277417 USD. How come? Based on some arguments, that the more advanced the technology a currency has, the more valuable is the currency. Then, it supposed to be 1 USD = 0.000277417 UGX, not the opposite, right?
How about Bitcoin? At the moment, BTC has relatively the least technological advantage to other coins. Then why its price is the top of the chart?
Yes, you don’t want a currency that is very easily counterfeited that it is become “public secret” that everyone can counterfeit the currency at will. But you also don’t need the most secure anti-counterfeit technology to give value to the currency or make the currency as the most valuable currency.
Consider this:
  • US Dollar, EU Euro, Japanese Yen, UK Pound, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc, why are they perceived as valuable currency to people, investor and trader?
Because they are the most traded currency in the world. I understand there are fundamentals factors affecting the value, but it cannot be denied that people perceived the most traded currencies are more stable and valuable.
“Analyst says 94% of bitcoin's price movement over the past four years can be explained by one equation”.
That equation is about mass adoption or network effect. Put it simply, it shows that the success of Bitcoin and its price are NOT because it is the first, it is the most advanced technologically, it has the most unique features, etc. But because it gets the biggest mass adoption among other crypto currencies, at least for the time being.
  • Currency is dynamic. It involves people and people’s behaviour, not a static Math numbers or Technology features.
  • There are significant differences between crypto that is projected to be just token and the one that is projected to be currency.
When we talk about currency, people give value to currency because of “the fundamentals” value (because currency relates to the fundamentals of a country, policies and its users) and because it is the top traded/used currency in the world.
But when we talk about crypto currency, I think many people agreed it is hard to understand “the fundamentals”, so I believe the easiest to understand the value is how it will be mass adopted. The fundamentals values, I believe, will be easier to see at later stages as they will become more tangible.
These include relationships/partnerships, networks, how it will scale, how the team will keep progressing and keep making improvements (including technological improvements), the progression and manifestation of the planned roadmap, how agile is the team to respond to changes and challenges, and for ETN specifically, is the “ETN Community”. ETN community is a big asset for Electroneum like no other crypto currency has.
So, what’s the deal with 2 decimal points?
At the beginning, I thought this “2 decimal points” can be a drawback for ETN, but now I think it is a brilliant idea. Consider the following advantages of using 2 decimal points for ETN:
  • Easy to understand, human friendly notation.
Why is this important? In order for a currency to be widely adopted, people need to be comfortable enough to use it and understand the transaction quickly and easily. People are already accustomed to 2 decimal points in currency. People mindset are already trained to calculate in cents as in 0.01 and not more decimal points. Thus, this will greatly help mass adoption
  • Businesses’ accounting or business model are setup around this mindset of 2 decimal points or cents of currency.
So, if the business community wants to adopt a crypto currency like ETN, it is “just natural” adoption.
For examples, some little things like, how are you going to invoice customer with a number that has 8 decimal points? It will take longer for the business to adapt and adjust with 8 decimals. It looks like simple thing, but if you try to implement it in the business model, then it can be huge.
Another example, Businesses don’t need to adjust the format in their receipt/docket, because their current format is already 2 decimal points, just change the currency name to ETN, compare this with if the Business has to change the format of the purchase docket/receipt in 8 decimals. I am quite sure it will be quite chaotic in the first few weeks of implementation.
Then how about the data format in the database, reconciliation process, etc, etc. The list can be very long just trying to adapt with 8 decimals.
  • When Electroneum tries to create business partnerships and relationships with other big Enterprise, entity, organisation, network, etc. They don’t need to “overhaul” their system for ETN to be included in their systems.
Thanks to 2 decimal points, which comes natural in every system that uses fiat currency, these integrations can be done faster and more easily.
I think most IT people and developers understand how mind blogging it can be to change whole system just because we need to adapt with 8 decimal points and 2 decimal points at the same time.
The key here is the integration of the systems can be done faster and easier.
  • One of the target of Electroneum is to be adopted by the unbanked people, which means ETN will become one of the main currency for the payment system, which might involves, at least at early stage, features for exchanging between ETN and local currency.
You can see as ETN comes naturally with 2 decimal points, just like other fiat currencies. Integration of payment system and legacy point of sale (POS) systems can be done much easier, because ETN behaves similar to other fiat currency in term of calculation (decimal points).
The only differences (or benefits) are ETN is a crypto currency with faster transaction settlement, cheaper transaction fees, no country boundary (cheaper transfer fees), with no “middle man” like banks, no complicated registration to bank accounts, and has privacy features.
So, Electroneum community and ETN HODLers, we can look forward to the full realization of Electroneum’s potentials in the near future. I got the “feeling” that Electroneum community will play significant roles like in no other crypto currency.
Cheers,
PS: In using some currencies as examples, I am not undermining the currencies or users of the currencies. I have some friends and relatives from some of these countries whom I know are richemuch richer than average people in developed countries (in terms of Dollar wealth). It is just for the sake of example. I hope no one get offended by this.
Disclaimer: I am not affiliated with Electroneum, but I am an ETN ICO investor and HODLer. This is my personal opinion and perspective regarding the matter and NOT to be seen/taken as advise or suggestion in any kind.
submitted by CryptoDeluge to Electroneum [link] [comments]

Beginner’s Guide to Exchanges – Part 1

Beginner’s Guide to Exchanges – Part 1

Hola Compadres! It is me u/poop_dragon here with another guide. Today I would like to run through a list of ETH exchanges. This is just Part 1 of this list, and it covers established exchanges. Soon I will post Part 2 and 3 which will go into some other types of exchanges (derivative markets, coin converters, decentralized, and foreign exchanges) Side note, I have given rating to these exchanges based on some comparisons, news, and information which I have found online. Recently, EVERY exchange has been slow/unresponsive in their customer service due to the huge influx of new users. My intention is to help educate new users about the exchanges available. I am not trying to discredit, advertise, pump up, or damage reputations. If you feel something is inaccurate, please respectfully bring it up in the comments. I will be editing as we go. Last thing of note, I have only included the lowest level trading tier to calculate trading fees, which assumes the highest rates. Most exchanges offer lower fees for bigger orders, but I have gone with the assumption that everyone here is not dropping whale amounts of cash.

00 – Concepts and Definitions

01 –Digital Exchanges

Poloniex

Exchange Type Maker Taker
All Currencies .15% .25%
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator Available
Wallet Security ‘Majority’ of Funds in cold storage
Personal Information Encrypted and Stored Off-Site
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Level 1 X X $2,000 USD Daily Withdrawal Limit
Level 2 X X X X X X $7,000 USD Daily Withdrawal Limit
Level 3 X X X X X X $25,000 USD Daily Withdrawal Limit
Level 4 X X X X X X X X >$25,000 USD Daily Withdrawal Limit
What is a KYC? It stands for Know Your Customer Documentation. This varies between exchanges. However, like most things, if you have to ask, you probably can’t afford it.

Bittrex

Exchange Type Maker Taker
All Currencies .25% .25%
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator Available
Wallet Security Multi-stage wallet Majority’ of Funds in cold storage
Personal Information IP Whitelisting restricts trading from new addresses
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Basic X X X 3 BTC or less daily
Enhanced X X X X X X 100 BTC or less daily

02– Fiat Exchanges - USA

Coinbase (GDAX)

Country Credit/Debit Linked Bank Account Wire Transfer
Australia 3.99% - -
Canada 3.99% - -
Europe 3.99% 1.49% SEPA- Free (€0.15)
Singapore 3.99% 1.49% -
UK 3.99% - SEPA Free (€0.15)
US 3.99% 1.49% $10 Deposit / $25 With / ACH Free
Exchange Type Maker Taker
ETH/FIAT 0% .30%
ETH/BTC 0% .30%
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Level 1 X X X
Level 2 X X X X X Crypto Only
Level 3 X X X X X X X Fiat Enabled
Level 4 X X X X X X X X Higher Fiat Limits
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator, Authy, SMS
Wallet Security 98% Assets in Cold Storage
Personal Information 3rd Party Verified, Secured, Stored Offline
Digital Currency Insurance Fully Insured by Lloyd’s of London
Fiat Insurance Up to $250,000 by FDIC
Bug Bounty Multiple bounties up to $10,000

Kraken

Country Linked Bank Account Wire Transfer
EUR Free SEPA €5-10 (€0.09 Withdrawal)
US Free SWIFT $10 ($60 Withdrawal)
UK Free SWIFT £10 (£60 Withdrawal)
CAN Free SWIFT Free ($10 Withdrawal)
Exchange Type Maker Taker
ETH/FIAT .16% .26%
ETH/BTC .16% .26%
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Level 0 X No Trading Allowed
Level 1 X X X X No Fiat, Unlimited Crypto
Level 2 X X X X Fiat $2,000Day/$10,000Mo
Level 3 X X X X X X Fiat $25,000Day/$200,000Mo
Level 4 X X X X X X X X Fiat $100,000Day/$500,000Mo
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator, Master Key Available
Wallet Security Majority Assets in Cold Storage
Personal Information PGP Encrypted Emails, Global Settings Lock
Digital Currency Insurance Maintain Full Reserves
Bug Bounty Multiple bounties

Gemini

Country Linked Bank Account Wire Transfer
USD Free Free
Exchange Type Maker Taker
ETH/ALL .10-.25% .25%
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Individual X X X X X X X None - Except for ACH
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator, Authy Available
Hot Wallet Security Hot Wallet Hosted by Amazon Web Services
Cold Wallet Stored in 2 tiers of cold and 'cryo' multi-sig storage
Personal Information Encrypted in Transit and Stored Offline
Digital Currency Insurance Fidelity bond by 'top-tier insurance company'
Fiat Insurance Up to $250,000 by FDIC

03– Fiat Exchanges - Hong Kong

Bitfinex

Country Credit/Debit Bank Transfer Express Bank Transfer
ALL - .1% ($20 Minimum) 1% ($20 Minimum)
Exchange Type Maker Taker
ETH/ALL .10% .20%
Tier Level Name Email DOB Phone Address Official ID Bank Info KYC Limits
Individual X X X X X X (2) X X No Stated Limits
Feature Details
2FA Google Authenticator, Twilio Available
Account Security New IP Addresses locked for 24 hours, require verification and detection
System Security Hosted and Backed-up on Linux, protection from DDoS
Personal Information Email encryption with OpenPGP
Wallet Security Only .5% of funds are stored in hot wallets
EDIT : Thank you to u/Ginger_Bearded_Man for the suggestion. Bittrex has been added.
submitted by poop_dragon to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Report I by Stablecoin Research Institute - The Difficulties and Future of Stablecoin

Report I by Stablecoin Research Institute - The Difficulties and Future of Stablecoin
https://preview.redd.it/pnnmh4gt6ng21.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a94528a71b7c6e2db9ea746116afeec8d7b1c51

Bitcoin was originally conceived to be outside the fiat money system as an electronic cash system for a new world. However, at present, the currency standard is still the fiat money standard. The envisaged bitcoin-based settlement system still has no foundation or a wide consensus on the value of the currency standard.
As a compromise, many stablecoins provide a temporary solution for the ecology through a 1:1 anchorage of U.S. dollar, with third-party bank custody becoming mainstream. The rapid growth of Tether and the loss of market share in the face of competition have added more uncertainty to the current market. The decentralization scheme provided by MakerDAO was slightly weak in the initial competition but the reputation gradually accumulated. As the market deepens, cryptocurrencies based on more regional legal currencies are gradually coming online, and people are beginning to try different chain payment attempts.
This article refers to the article Stable Digital Currency Manual by co-founder of Zhibao Mikko, trying to explore the difficulties and future of stablecoin from a currency perspective.

The Difficulties of Bitcoin Settlement System
When it comes to stablecoins, the original idea of Bitcoin has to be mentioned ---- a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Over the past decade, a series of expansions have been made in the blockchain technology and Bitcoin. In people's minds, Bitcoin will be a new generation of the world's monetary system, independent of the fiat money (US dollar) system, to de-intermediate transaction transfers and asset storage, to eliminate asset losses caused by the bank's centralized risk, and put an end to the harvest of wealth brought about by hyperinflation.
In reality, Bitcoin does have somehow established its own trading system - such as black market transactions in the dark network. Dark network commodity trading uses Bitcoin as a medium, and buyers and sellers are also happy to configure a portion of Bitcoin as a value reserve. On the other hand, Bitcoin is the most common trading medium among cryptocurrency exchanges for a long time before the popularity of USDT. Some people said, “Bitcoin is the real stablecoin.” In addition to observing the fluctuations in the value of the fiat money, the traders of various cryptocurrencies will also pay attention to the relationship between cryptocurrency and the bitcoin trading pair. But in this case, this so-called bitcoin-based trading system still has several problems.

https://preview.redd.it/679bncm37ng21.jpg?width=788&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbbb630b286a87eb3b1a38ac48cabac4b653bf83

The first is the currency standard: even if some people regard Bitcoin as a gift, they have long believed that Bitcoin will eventually level the volatility and increase the index, but even the so-called beliefs are usually denominated in fiat money (US dollar, Euro, RMB). That is to say, the first problem with Bitcoin is that there is no pricing power. In other words, Bitcoin cannot perform the settlement function extensively in the holder's daily life. The daily benchmarking consensus based on Bitcoin in a wide range is that it doesn't exist at all.
In China, a Coke is 3 RMB, and in the US it is 1 US dollar. The two are under their respective independent settlement systems. If the person in one of the systems happens to come to another system, such as a Chinese who first bought a Coke in the United States, the first reaction is likely to be a cup of 6.71 yuan. Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency does not have a similar settlement system under the independent monetary framework.
In the case that it is not possible to participate extensively in daily pricing, the currency standard is the fiat money standard. For members of the cryptocurrency community, the actual fiat money-based thinking does not directly affect the willingness of buyers and sellers to use Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies for physical purchases, but when Bitcoin’s price against fiat money falls into huge downward fluctuations, it rejects the situation of receiving cryptocurrencies is inevitable.
So the second question directly promotes the strong demand for stablecoins: currency price fluctuations. On the other hand, it should be realized that Bitcoin does not have a complete settlement system and a broad and stable price consensus based on the system; on the other hand, since the initial definition of Bitcoin was an innovation independent of the traditional financial system, even if it is far from the original concept, the community consensus based on the decentralization and token incentives is different from the traditional financial system.
So for a long time, the market could not price bitcoin with the traditional asset framework. The triumph of 2017 has made the society more aware and acknowledged about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency systems. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME has put on bitcoin futures at the end of the year. At the same time as government regulation gradually intervenes, the OTC exchange network outside the market is also getting better and better, and the pricing of bitcoin is starting to break away from fanaticism. At the end of 2017, the isolationism of various countries has become stronger, the pace of interest rate hikes of the FED has sped up, and global asset preferences have also undergone subtle changes towards safe-haven assets. China’s domestic capital has advocated “cash is the king” and Bitcoin has entered a down cycle.
As noted above, upside volatility can also encourage traditional merchants to participate in speculation, but downside volatility has caused most merchants to lose their willingness to treat Bitcoin as a currency. In 2018, with the increasingly strong bear market in the cryptocurrency world, the demand for safe-haven and stable-price trading media in the encryption community has skyrocketed, and countless stablecoin projects have been launched. At the same time, Tether, which occupied the absolute market share of stablecoins in 2017, continued to expand against the trend of black box operations.

Third Party Intermediary - Compromise of Fiat Money Stablecoins
The hot currency-backed stablecoin is undoubtedly a compromise of the cryptocurrency market against traditional currencies.
As Nakamoto said in the Bitcoin White Paper, “trade on the Internet almost requires financial institutions to act as trusted third parties to process electronic payment information. Although such systems work well in most cases, such systems are still endogenously constrained by the weakness of the 'trust based model'... We really need an electronic payment system that is based on cryptography rather than credit, making any parties that have reached an agreement can make payments directly, eliminating the need for third-party intermediaries."
Although the article refers to the payment process in the transaction, it is the same in terms of collateral custody. The trust of third-party financial institutions in this mode is inevitable. Trust means that when the custodian bank secretly misappropriates collateral or bankrupts for any reason, the user's assets will be difficult to guarantee, abbreviated as SPOF single point of failure.
But the good news is that when the market competition is fully carried out, the user as a whole is divided into several different groups, and different fiat money stablecoin products with different audit processes under different banks are used. A single point of failure of an individual project does not affect the continued operation of other stablecoin products; and the community response to a single company's evil or potential evil is greatly magnified as the number of competing products increases.
Taking Tether as an example, the giants who once occupied more than 95% of the market share of the stablecoin market finally ignited the trust crisis in the long-term refusal of transparent auditing, and the market share plummeted. In the foreseeable future, Tether will gradually liberalize its transparency and optimize its relationship with users to maintain its current market share. The stablecoin competing products that continue to enter the market will form a continuous multi-disciplinary force on existing projects in the market to promote market improvement and relief centralized risk.

The Rise and Blockage of Tether
The real rise of stablecoin is actually symbolized by Tether's exponential growth in 2017. From the eve of the dawn of 2017 to the day after 20 months, Tether's market value has skyrocketed from less than $7 million to more than $2.8 billion, a 400-fold increase.

USDT Year Chart (green - currency price; blue - market value)

In 2018, the hot stablecoin market, USDT's exclusive access to the stablecoin, and stablecoin’s widespread dissatisfaction with the rejection of third-party audits attracted many competitors. In March, True USD (TUSD) was transparently managed. The name entered the competition. Around October, stablecoins such as USDCoin (USDC), Gemini Dollar (GUSD) and Paxos Standard (PAX), which had strong background, compliance audit and good asset transparency, went online. At about the same time, perhaps the pressure from friends and merchants has soared. It is a coincidence that Tether has successively experienced a series of scandals and then the price collapsed in mid-October, and evaporated 40% of the market value in the following month. After a series of cycles, the situation gradually eased.
The four consecutive stablecoins mentioned above seized the market share and expanded rapidly in the next few months. In the month before the deadline, Tether's stablecoin market share was stable at around 70%, and the remaining market share was occupied by the top four newcomers. In the process of grabbing the market, there were fluctuations, including the only US compliance encryption. The progress of the USDC issued by the currency exchange COINBASE is the most eye-catching, and its market value accounts for about 10% of the overall stablecoin market at the time of writing.

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A simple conclusion is that Tether can still be stable even after the crisis, thanks to Tether's first-mover advantage in its existing position on global exchanges and the high liquidity it represents. The three basic functions of money are pricing units, value storage, and trading media, while liquidity is their common subtext.
The unit price provided by a currency lacking liquidity cannot obtain broad consensus of money users. The lack of consensus leads to price disorder, and the currency thus loses the valuation value. As a value storage and trading medium, it will miss trading object and depth due to low liquidity and cannot complete the basic function as a currency. Although the new four-dollar collateral stabilized currency occupies its place in the start of the competition with Tether, Tether sits on a whole bull market with a trading history that has a relatively complete trading pair coverage in the world's major exchanges; In addition to the full coverage of the exchange, USDT also has a sound OTC network construction, providing the most direct portal for stocks and potential incremental users. Under the superposition, Tether's endogenous and exogenous liquidity advantages are particularly evident, and even in the case of black box scandals, it can still occupy a fairly strong market share. But with the gradual gradual competition, peer supervision and the gradual enrichment of user-selectable products, Tether's fault-tolerant space for future strategies is not as optimistic as imagined.

HUSD - Self-contained Stablecoins
In response to the October crisis in Tether, the Fire Currency Exchange launched a HUSD Stabilization Coin program.
In this scheme, the Firecoin users will automatically convert to HUSD when they recharge the PAX, TUSD, USDC, and GUSD. HUSD has no actual issuance process, but simply a unit of pricing corresponding to four types of stablecoin recharge. After the user converts one of the stablecoins into HUSD, he or she can freely choose any one to redeem.
The program not only helps users to spread the centralization risk of a single fiat money stablecoin, but also helps the four stable coins to complete the group on the fire currency exchange to cope with the existing liquidity competitive advantage of the USDT. But on the other hand, the user's use of HUSD is based on trust in the fire currency exchange, in other words another single point of failure risk. Therefore, in order to dilute the risk of centralization, it is still necessary to transparently deal with the specific schemes of the fire currency exchange, and the supervision of the fire coins by the community, especially other exchanges.

Decentralization Breakout of Stablecoin
At present, a number of currency-backed stablecoins, led by USDT, cover almost all of the market capitalization and liquidity of the stablecoin market.
In this case, MakerDAO's DAI is extraordinarily precious. The DAI Stabilized Currency System generates a stablecoin DAI through over-collateralization of cryptocurrency. Most of the functions within the system are implemented or planned through the deployment of smart contracts, such as chain generation and redemption of stable coins, management of collateral, and so on. In addition to the DAI as a stablecoin, as a dual currency system, there is another governance currency called MKR in MakerDAO. Governance currency holders support the system's decentralized governance functions while enjoying the overall benefits of the system, and provide additional funding buffers for the system in events such as abnormal currency fluctuations.
In MakerDAO's overall vision, the system first endorses the credit of the stablecoin through the chain of excess collateral, while the interest generated by the credit function (the essence of DAI generated by the mortgage cryptocurrency is a lending process), the collateral under abnormal fluctuations The profit from the flat penalty triggered by Ping and the more financial derivative function to support the system's self-operation.
One of the biggest conflicts between the community and the cryptocurrency collateral currency is the risk exposure of the collateral in the warehouse when the cryptocurrency generates a stablecoin. Although in theory the users of the stablecoin can be separated from the mortgagor, the mortgagor can be a more risk-tolerant group, such as an eager borrower, a professional user of financial instruments, etc., but since the stablecoin is issued The identity of the person itself is subject to a natural limitation based on the degree of risk aversion, and its supply has an additional limit.
On the other hand, there is a limited source of information about Ethereum as a single collateral: the mortgagor is limited to holders of Ethereum. In MakerDAO's plan, the multi-collateral version of the system will gradually improve with iteration, and the achievement of this program will effectively reduce the risk of the MakerDAO collateral asset portfolio and increase the potential DAI generation limit. Ample supply and liquidity of the DAI will help activate the system in more possibilities on the market.

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Compared to the competition between the four newcomers and the USDT, the position of MakerDAO is quite different. If the user's choice between the four newcomers and the USDT is a trade-off between liquidity (product usability) and security, then between USDT and DAI is liquidity (product usability) and decentralized belief. The trade-off. As far as the market is concerned, MakerDAO's dual currency system seems to explain better how the project side can continue the project through the circulation of profits. Many of the fiat money-backed stablecoin projects have always wondered whether they will realize their own coinage rights in the future and thus harm the user's property rights.
As a successful decentralized stablecoin project, MakerDAO is one of the most successful projects on Ethereum. This is both a tribute to the MakerDAO development path: the development of other projects (dApp) on the Ethereum and the overall robustness of the ecology. As the second generation of the public chain, Ethereum pioneered the concept of smart contract, which is a milestone in the development of application on the chain. However, in the course of many years of development, the performance of the main network and the fragmentation technology have been delayed. So although MakerDAO claims that DAI will have many chain advantages as ERC20 tokens, it seems that the eApp side of Ethereum has not seen a good development momentum.
It is worth mentioning that in the performance of the public chain and dApp development, the EOS public chain has developed rapidly since the launch of the main network in 2018. If EOS has a stablecoin project like MakerDAO, and can properly handle potential security issues in the operation process (such as the potential risks caused by the scalability of the contract, etc.), there is much to be done. After all, in addition to seeking cooperation under the chain, the pricing system of cryptocurrency is more important to find and create niches that belong only to the world of cryptocurrency. A robust dApp ecology with a constant need for stable coins or the only possible form of this niche.

Choice Outside the U.S. Dollar
The few stablecoins currently circulating the most are anchoring the US dollar. There is no doubt that the status of the dollar in the current world currency system is irreplaceable. The bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies described in the beginning of the article lack the independent settlement system, and the US dollar is the extreme of the other end – the currency with the most complete settlement framework in the world.
From the gold standard to the Bretton Woods system, to the current global commodity and foreign exchange trading system centered on the US dollar-oil trading system, the three functions of currency pricing, storage and circulation are reflected in the US dollar. As the currency with the most universal purchasing power and deep trading depth, the US dollar has naturally become the primary anchor for many stablecoins that pursue international influence. The dependence of the stablecoin on the US dollar is a last resort. While stabilizing the dollar, the stablecoin not only enjoys the liquidity advantage brought by the dollar, but also inherits the volatility risk of the dollar itself. Although the US dollar is still the most trustworthy currency on a macro level, if A's main payment scenario is in Country A, and Country A's currency has a large appreciation of the US dollar due to market factors, then the asset holding the anchored US dollar. Bringing a higher base point risk to A.
Among the many non-US dollar currencies, the yen is one of the most distinctive currencies. The Japanese government has a positive attitude towards blockchain technology. In April 2017, it recognized the legal payment status of Bitcoin and formulated a series of laws and regulations for the exchange. At the same time, Japan is also one of the most active participants in the cryptocurrency market. At the end of 2018, Japanese IT giant GMO Internet announced that it plans to introduce a yen-linked cryptocurrency in 2019 to prepare for the next phase of cross-border settlement. The emergence of a liquid currency-stable yen stablecoin will not only help Japanese crypto community members to better participate in daily market behavior, but also help cross-border currency settlement. In addition, due to Japan’s domestic economic structure, monetary policy has maintained ultra-low interest rates for a long time. Under this premise, investors are more willing to invest in sovereign countries with higher interest rates, especially the United States. When the United States is in turmoil, funds are largely returned to the yen, which has a very low risk attribute, which raises the yen and lowers the dollar. Therefore, the emergence of the yen stablecoin can also provide a better safe haven for holders of USD stabilized coins such as USDT in the potential dollar crisis.
In addition to the yen, the private sector or the government of Australia, the euro zone and other countries are also involved in the development and deployment of their domestic currency stablecoin. While the vast majority will still be a similarly centralized bank hosting model, it should still be seen as an improvement and rationally expecting a more equitable and efficient system.

The Future Direction of the Stablecoin
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the original idea of the cryptocurrency community for Bitcoin was to create a decentralized financial system that would be independent of the traditional monetary system. However, due to the lack of an independent and complete settlement system, or the lack of a broad currency-based pricing consensus, the cryptocurrency world cannot be formed into a real monetary system, and it has to rely on the attachment to the US dollar or other currencies to achieve long-term scenarios. Valuation of prices in cryptocurrencies, etc. Although Bitcoin itself has the believer of the currency standard, the foundation of the belief is mostly based on the re-exponential rise of the price of the bitcoin, which is still the thinking of fiat money.
Given that there is a consensus that goods can only be denominated in currency A in the payment and settlement system of country A, if the cryptocurrency world wants to form an independent payment settlement system, the best pricing unit for the purchase should be cryptocurrency. The anchoring of the U.S. dollar and other fiat money is just to use the currency attribute (otherwise the currency credit cannot be established), and will destruct the consensus to regard cryptocurrency as the best pricing unit and establish an independent monetary system (the cost of convenience). The power of habit is hard to overcome, and the habit of paying the currency of a chain certainly needs to be achieved by the widespread purchase of assets on the chain. This process requires gradual improvement of the payment scenario between stablecoin systems and dApps.
The cryptocurrency eco-walls we mentioned above are based on the hope of this exclusive chain-based settlement system. The simple dApp on the chain is obviously not enough. We also have two topics to be studied in the chain payment scenario and asset chaining. Users must complete the process from chain to chain and back to chain to integrate cryptocurrency pricing into everyday habitual thinking.
Then, the stablecoin will gradually deepen into people's daily life after several decades, while the banknotes gradually withdraw from the trading scene, and the sub-generation gradually accepts the new cryptocurrency value settlement system.


Reference:
Stable Digital Currency Manual (http://wisburg.com/2018/07/03/稳定数字货币手册/)
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