After the Bust, Are Bitcoins More Like Tulip Mania or the

FAQ & general /r/AusFinance advice

All of this is general info, not specific financial advice, caveat, caveat, don't sue/ban, etc, etc.
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
The barefoot Investor is a well regarded, Australian, personal finance book. The sub is largely positive about his advice and step by step approach, though his later steps get a little more ambiguous, especially around home ownership. It goes pretty cheap and can be read in an afternoon - it constitutes a pretty good first investment.
This sub supports maintaining a strong "rainy day fund", which should be able to tide you over for several months, though lengths vary depending on your situation (if you're 19 and can crash on your mum's couch, two months will be okay. If you have three kids and pets, 6 months is better). Calculate how much you spend per month and accumulate the appropriate amount into a high interest savings account. Commonly, the sub recommends against big banks who tend to not be the best value for money. ING, RAMS and UBank have great interest rates. The differences between these are negligible; the main point is to get away from places like the CBA who provide low interest rates and often still charge an account fee.
After you have established a rainy day fund, your options are wider. Follow this flowchart for general advice. Paying down debt is one of your main priorities (disregard HECS, it's not real debt).
INVESTMENT
Generally /AusFinance recommends that you establish your "rainy day fund" (as above) before you do anything else, so ensure you can take on any emergencies like broken fridges, lost jobs, etc. You don't want to be selling off investments at the first sign of a leaking dishwasher.
/AusFinance likes the stock-market to form the basis for your investment portfolio. Here's some basic guidelines:
Ok, so more detail on investing: most of this sub is broadly against investing large sums into individual companies. Picking successful companies is a full time job, so most people are not equipped to do so. Nearly all experts like Warren Buffett recommend the average investor invests in index funds. It's a fire and forget investment you don't need to think about. And if you've thought about managed funds, consider that they rarely beat index funds because the margins are low and the people who are handling your money need to be paid. Meaning that they might gain good overall returns, but after you factor in their fees, an index fund will have performed better.
The best available in Australia seem to be Vanguard's suite because of its low management fees. Most recommend Vanguard's VDHG, which is an incredibly well diversified index fund. It takes your money and spreads it across multiple markets, sectors, companies, nations, etc. This means that large fluctuations in economies, sectors or nations is evened out over time and your money is diversified, therefore risk averse. Your money will follow global market trends (which are, over time, unambiguously positive). Index funds also nearly always outperform managed funds. Options other than VDHG are a VGS and VAS split. VAS is Australian centric though, so if you're already heavily invested here through super, savings accounts, property, etc, you might want to reduce your overall percentage of VAS. VGS is a global index excluding Australia, which makes it an attractive partner to VAS. Some people do 50/50 if they have no other investments. Others do more of a 60/40 or 70/30 VGS/VAS split if they have a bit more invested domestically. This should start your research along the right track. If you're unsure about some of these concepts, have a look here.
If you're nearing retirement or are very, very risk averse, your investment strategies will deviate from the above. But as a general guideline, the above options are a good way to begin your research.
PROPERTY
Yeah, the debate rages. To be logically consistent, this sub is against trying to time the market. The trend for property prices is certainly positive and there's a firm consensus that in the long term, property value will grow. The issue is how long it will take to recover if there is a major loss in value. Some people speculate that there will be a slow decline in value, some say a crash. Both have convincing points. Both say property is overvalued. Others say there will be no decline or crash, which I find less convincing. The risk of buying a house right now is that it rapidly loses value in the next couple of years. Unlike most investments, it losing value may not actually effect you whatsoever - if you're planning on living in it - and if you can afford the required repayments. If your plans are long term, you'll be insulated by the unstoppable march of market forces.
The major consideration is this: are you willing to potentially lose a large portion of your property value and potentially make a loss on it if you sell in the next 1, 5 or 10 years? If you might move to Canberra in a few years for work, the loss in value makes the question of buying trivial: it's risky to buy and less risky to rent. If you're working in your dream company and have kids going through school and have no plan of moving? You can begin to consider it.
submitted by Tilting_Gambit to AusFinance [link] [comments]

How to get smarter during a raging bull market

I've personally experienced the 1987 stock market crash, the dot-com bubble, the 2008 bear market, and the Mt. Gox rocket up and down in 2013. This makes me too old to be cool. But it also means that I've been around long enough to be puzzled by how markets work and don't (!) work. While ethtrader is a fantastic source of news, the fact of the matter is that news is not the best source of wisdom. Wisdom, unfortunately, requires the hard work of learning and introspection which is really, really hard to accomplish during the adrenaline rush of the bull market in ether that we've been having. So, for those of you who want to broaden your perspective and gain a deeper understanding of the market I'd like to recommend the five books that have best helped me understand trading markets: (1) Devil Take the Hindmost: A History by Edward Chancellor. Why? When bitcoin was new, the bitcoin reddit was flooded with accusations that it was just tulip mania all over again. Yet very few people actually understand what caused the market for tulips to go crazy (like ether) in the Netherlands. What made tulips go to the moon and come crashing back to earth? This along with other manias is covered in this super interesting book. (2) When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein. These guys had multiple Nobel prize winners! They were invincible! Yet they totally crashed and burned? WTF happened? Can it happen again in crypto where there are also lots of amazingly smart people? What are the underlying risks to watch for? (3) Money: The Unauthorized Biography--From Coinage to Cryptocurrencies by Felix Martin. So, we're all talking about getting out of "fiat" money and into "cryptocurrency". What exactly are we getting out of and into? What is money? Honestly, this is one of the most interesting books I've read in the past five years. (4) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip A. Fisher. You may think that cryptocurrency is completely new, but even if it is you are trying to do something very old: make money for yourself. How do you know what to buy, when to buy, when to sell, how to judge if you've bought the right thing? This is a small(er) book in the investment field. But it's one of the best if you want to maximize your chances of getting to the point where you need to decide what color Lambo to buy. (5) Berkshire Hathaway Letters to Shareholders by Warren Buffett (paperback version). Sitting at a desk without a computer and just using his brain, Buffett has become the second wealthiest person in the world. Here, Warren drops serious knowledge. I think there's more wisdom and trading smarts to be gleaned here than from a full MBA course. Also, I'd like to invite you to recommend your favorites to me. Although I'm getting the recommendations started, I'm no Warren Buffett or George Soros. I'd like to continue learning and -- just maybe -- get a bit smarter.
submitted by superleolion to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Why I predict Bitcoin will go to zero

It seems the mania and hype have reached epic proportions. You see headlines like “bitcoin could reach 100,000”, “bitcoin going up over 1000%.” I even ran into someone the other day saying he invested because he knew someone who made over $100,000 investing in bitcoin. My thought was, yeh I knew a guy who made over $100,000 on a lottery ticket but that doesn’t make lottery tickets a good investment.
As I kind of pride myself as a successful long term investor, my gut automatically tells me bitcoin is a bad investment. I decided to take a moment and put pen to paper to try and back up my initial instinct of why my gut tells me bitcoin is a bad investment. I will attempt to lay out the case why I predict bitcoin is actually worthless.
  1. It has no utility - Ok, for something to have value it must be useful. You buy homes to utilize them, gold can be used for jewlry and electronics, stocks are ownership in companies producing goods and services people want to buy. Even non physical things like performance art and literature can have value because people enjoy them. I have heard the argument that none of this matters because bitcoin is like the US dollar or other fiat currency, and currency is a store of wealth backed by nothing of value. But their is a big difference. US dollars will always be worth something because you have to use them to pay taxes. Even if we were a completely barter economy, you would have to go out and exchange enough goods and services for US dollars to pay your taxes. See, the problem is that no one is buying bitcoin to use or enjoy it. They are only buying hopping some one might buy it from them for a higher price in the future.
  2. It doesn’t produce income - Now there are intangible investments that have no physical utility or enjoyment use, but they are used to produce something with utility. A good example are instruments like bonds, futures, stock options, CDs and other “commercial paper.” These products have no physical utility for those who buy them, but they are a way to transfer resources to be used to produce something of utility. When you invest in a CD or bond or any other debt instrument someone’s taking that and investing it in future labor or production of something useful. For example if you buy a CD, the bank takes that money and loans it to someone who buys a truck or a home and then they pay back the debt with future productivity or labor giving that CD value. When you invest in a commercial paper instrument, it eventually finds its way into investing in something that purchases or produces something of value. If you invest in bitcoin even though it has some of the same attributes of an intangible investment it goes into no productive use.
  3. It must also be scarce - Ok I know some of you are screaming saying it does have utility because you can use it to transfer money. But even if something has utility, it must also have a level of scarcity to be a store of wealth. For example the air we breath has enormous value too us. We would be willing to pay everything we have and all our future earnings for breathable air if we were trapped in a submarine under water. But here on land even though air is necessary to our very existence, it has no value because it is so abundant. Ok you might say there are only so many bitcoin so it is scarce. But bitcoin is really just a data set of block chain technology. This technology is open source meaning that is freely accessible to anyone. That’s why their are now thousands of new crypto currencies and more popping up every day. So saying bitcoin is scarce is like saying the air over Palm Beach is scarce so if we bottle it up it will be valuable, because there is only so much air over Palm Beach. Bitcoin is not scarce because it is no more useful than any other crypto currency, just like the air over Palm Beach is no more useful than the air you are breathing right now.
4.It is a bubble - Look throughout human history, something is a bubble when a majority of people buy it just hoping it goes up in value, and not as a user of the product. Speculation causes huge distortions in the market. I buy a car because it has value to me because I don’t have to walk to work, I buy homes because they provide me shelter safety and comfort. I buy an IPhone because it makes me more productive and entertained. We have seen it in houses, comic books, art, beanie babies, heck even tulip bulbs. Bubbles occur when the price is determined by speculation that something will go up in value and not for the utility or enjoyment it provides to the individual. If people really were just buying bitcoin for its utility to transfer money, then the market would provide an accurate price. A scuba diver pays to have his tanks filled with air even though the air is free. There is a cost to condense and transport that air and yes their is a small value in that, because it takes resources to build the infrastructure to move the air. But the guy who pays to have scuba tanks filled with air is not doing so hoping to sell it for more in the future. If the vast majority of bitcoin users were truly using it for its useful purpose the price would be accurately reflected. The problem is the vast majority of bitcoin investors don’t even really understand it let alone use it. I would argue most of the investors are buying just in the hopes someone will buy it from them at a higher price in the future, with no intention of using it to transfer money.
Anyway I think it’s a good discussion to have so if disagree please tell me where you think I’m wrong.
submitted by psntax to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency trenches: Are bitcoin & blockchain really transformative?

Today, I interviewed Phil Raymond. He co-chairs CRYPSA, hosts the New York Bitcoin Event and is keynote speaker at Cryptocurrency Conferences. He sits on the New Money Systems board of Lifeboat Foundation and is a top Bitcoin writer at Quora.

For the people who don’t know you, what can you tell about yourself?

I was originally a hardware design engineer, creating electronic memory systems for computers and a few consumer products. Later, I started a company that designed and manufactured local area network devices for the smart building controls industry.
Back at college, I studied hardware engineering, of course. But I was always fascinated with encryption, compression and error correction. I studied under Gilles Brassard (inventor of Quantum Cryptography), and I met Claude Shannon (the father of information theory) and David Chaum (founder of DigiCash). In the early days of email, I latched onto PGP, RSA and the public key infrastructure that enables internet commerce. I realized that these concepts would enable transformative products and services, and that they would radically benefit consumers.
Nine years ago, Satoshi hit the scene with a solution to the Double-Spend problem. In a very brief whitepaper, he articulated the blockchain and even introduced a test platform which used a blockchain as a distributed consensus mechanism for digital cash that required no central nexus or authoritative bookkeeper. He called it “Bitcoin”.
I was fortunate to appreciate the tectonic importance of Satoshi’s gift to mankind. The blockchain and Bitcoin are easily misunderstood or dismissed today, but they are no less important than the internet or public key cryptography. They will radically change how we work, play, spend money and how we interact with each other. Ultimately, they will redefine the relationship between citizens and their governments, because these concept allow us to redefine trust and democracy in a way that more closely matches our goals and ideals.
I was involved in cryptocurrency early on, even in the pre-PayPal days of DigiCash and Digital Gold.
So, what do I do today?
I co-chair the Cryptocurrency Standards Association, a loose-knit collaborative of researchers, journalists, enthusiasts and vendors. I host the New York Bitcoin Event and more recently, I am keynote speaker at Cryptocurrency Conferences. I also sit on the New Money Systems board at Lifeboat Foundation. I am a top Bitcoin writer at Quora and editor of the Blog, AWildDuck.com

What is blockchain and, how does it work?

We hear a lot about the blockchain. We also hear a lot of misconceptions about its purpose and benefits. Some have said that it represents a threat to banks or to governments. Nonsense! It is time for a simple, non-political, and non-economic definition…

What is a Blockchain?

A blockchain is a distributed approach to bookkeeping. Because it opens and distributes the ledger among all participants, it offers an empowering, efficient and trusted way for disparate parties to reach consensus. It is “empowering”, because conclusions built on a blockchain can be constructed in a way that is inherently fair, transparent and resistant to manipulation. At scale, it is also massively redundant. This further leads to a hardened network which can resist loss whether caused by accident, faulty infrastructure or attack.
This is why blockchain-backed systems are generating excitement. Implemented as distributed and permissionless, they take uncertainty out of accounting, voting, legislation or research, and replace it with trust and security. Benefits are bestowed without the need for central authority or arbitration. The blockchain not only solves a fundamental transaction challenge, it addresses communication and arbitration problems that have bedeviled thinkers since the ancient Egyptians.

Related explanations:

What is a cryptocurrency and, how does it work?

Cryptocurrency is a blockchain-based token that has achieved a two-sided network and is used like money in payment for goods, services or debts. It is not simply traded by investors, hoarders and speculators (although these trades dominate the early adoption phase) — and it is not simply used as an asset-backed payment instrument like a gift card or debit card. (Those are instruments are tied to dollars or the solvency of banks and retailers). Rather, a cryptocurrency is traded with the potential to be the money itself. It’s value floats freely with supply and demand.
It is important to distinguish cryptocurrency from ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) and other digital tokens. Cryptocurrency always refers to Bitcoin or other altcoins that are built on an open source, transparent and permissionless blockchain. They have no proprietary code or features, and every transaction from the very start of time is open to public scrutiny.
A cryptocurrency might have a functional purpose like some ICOs (That is, they might be used for something other than a payment instrument). But they are never associated with Airdrops, multi-level trading, or promotions that generate benefits to early adopters or those who refer. These gimmicks never apply to genuine cryptocurrencies. They are concepts from the marketers who hawk ICOs. Those are digital products for speculators and not a cryptocurrency.

How do they work?

Cryptocurrencies work by permitting trust without any central authority keeping the books. Instead of a bank or retailer tracking your ownership of coins, a network of miners act as a giant network of distributed accounts. Their activity maintains the transaction logs, attests to the validity of transactions and keeps track of who owns what.

Here are some really interesting facts about miners:

(a) Anyone can be a miner. There are no restrictions on joining the party
(b) Eventually, everyone will be a miner, whether they realize it or not. That is, it will become a part of every wallet. The reason that everyone will become a miner, is because the rewards will eventually run out. When they do, the spread of mining to all parties is the glue that will keep transactions fast, free and trusted.
(c) Miners don’t “see” that they are writing, validating, publishing and guaranteeing validity of the books. From their perspective, they are participating in a massive networked gaming community. They race other gamers, trying to solve a math puzzle, while seeking little rewards as they go along.

Do you see future where we will adopt cryptocurrencies at international scale and, why?

It is inevitable! Someday, Cryptocurrencies will replace government issued currencies. I am certain of this. Why is this? Because Bitcoin is not only good for consumers, vendors, banks, lenders, creditors and NGOs — it is especially good for governments.
Today, some legislators and politicians fear that cryptocurrency will undermine a country’s control over its own monetary policy. This is true. Indeed, governments will lose that control. And this is good.
A government no more needs control over monetary policy as it does over telecommunications or the package delivery services. We are conditioned to believe that value comes from a trusted party, and this makes it hard to give up our assumption that governments must control the creation of wealth. But, in fact, nations are much healthier if they must balance their books like any individual, business, NGO, club, state or municipality. They can still borrow, of course. But they will no longer be able to print funny money and continuously hoist their debts onto unborn generations.

Why did bitcoin reach such a high value??

Bitcoin had a significant rise in 2017. From $1000 to almost $20,000 per BTC unit. During that time, the subject spread like wildfire — and so, of course did investor interest. News stories flourished and these led to functional studies by banks, vendors, exchanges, and settlement houses. But, more than 95% of trades were made by investors, day traders, hoarders and speculators, and this leads to a volatile commodity. (Not a bubble, but a very rapidly changing value). This exchange value makes for great dinner-table discussion. It also makes some very rich and poor traders. But, in the end, it is quite meaningless.
In the end, 1 BTC will always be worth 1 BTC. When the exchange rate fluctuates relative to the dollar or some other currency, you will wonder what good or bad news affected the value of the dollar. You will not wonder about Bitcoin, because goods and services will be quoted and exchanged in Bitcoin, and the value to your household will not fluctuate rapidly.

What is the best cryptocurrency out there and, why?

Bitcoin is the only viable long-term cryptocurrency. Others, like Ethereum, may survive or even flourish, but this is because they serve other markets, and are not trying to be simply money.

The reason that Bitcoin will not be dethroned as the future of money, is:

Developers that I work with view every altcoin as a beta test platform for Bitcoin. Any improvement, new feature or clever innovation can be backed into Bitcoin. It’s a messy exercise in democracy, but ultimate, it only requires that the new code is accepted by a majority of miners — or championed by rising user awareness.

Do you think ETFs will be possible?

Sure. This will happen. Some government bodies will be against it and some will be for it. But either way, it is fait accompli. Eventually, every country will be dragged into the party. In any democracy or capitalist country, there is no reasonable basis for government or regulators to forbid citizens from creating securities out of any commodity or asset. Cryptocurrencies do not present any unique issues for brokers and traditional exchanges. They can be easily securitized or partitioned into derivatives. Sure, some of these instruments will amplify risk, but in the end, the public will create and market whatever instruments they wish.

Do you think decentralization will be inevitable and, why?

Yes. Decentralization is inevitable, because it addresses the goal of fairness, accountability and capitalism. It has always been a viable solution, but without a mechanism to enable applications.
Trust built on decentralized consensus (especially money) creates a fair, transparent, fluid network. It keeps governments honest.
Contrary to early pundits, decentralized cryptocurrency does not lessen a government’s ability to tax, spend or enforce tax collection. Additionally, it does not facilitate crime. These are early myths from analysts who did not fully understand or appreciate the blockchain.
But, cryptocurrency will certainly change the social contract between a government, its citizens and its creditors. Walls will come tumbling down, and this benefits everyone.

Do you think we are making history and, why?

Yes indeed. Just like the steam hammer, the telephone, the internal combustion engine, the transistor and the internet, our grandchildren will look back on the 20-teens and 2020s, and ask what it was like to witness a revolution is real time. The advent of cryptocurrency is a bit harder to grasp at first. But it is just as transformative; just as beneficial; just as important to our future.

Can you name some of the projects who will have huge impact in society and, why?

Voting, Real estate (deeds, transfers, liens), contracts, multisig consensus (related to anything), peer review (in any field), medicine, genetics, law (adjudication & arbitration), sports (scoring and consensus) — and hundreds of fields that we cannot yet imagine.

What advice can you give to the people who are starting their own project on the blockchain?

Keep your eye on the fundamental things that make the blockchain credible and beneficial. That is, Be very skeptical of any implementation that is not:
If you are involved in a project that uses a new coin or token, ask yourself if the problem could be addressed by Bitcoin or Ethereum. If so, why bother with the new coin? It certainly cannot be as fair, transparent, vetted and scalable.

Where should people start when they want to begin to learn how blockchain works?

What resources can you share with us, besides the ones that you already share?

I write a lot of articles about the revolution under our feet. With irreverent modesty, I refer you to my own articles:
WildDuck I write under the pen name, “Ellery” [View articles]
• LinkedIn Blockchain columnist: Dozens of published articles. Additionally,
• Lifeboat Board member, Columnist [View articles]
• Quora Most active author Bitcoin & blockchain [1000 articles as “Ellery”]
Sophos Bitcoin wallet security [View article]

What is the next milestone to the blockchain?

In the past few months, we have seen the gradual roll out of Lightning Network. It successfully addressed critical infrastructure problems associated with of transaction speed, cost, and other issues affecting scalability.
There are several minor issues to be addressed, mostly related to security, malleability, and testability. But I am most interested in two long term issues that must eventually be addressed:

1. Energy Consumption Caused by Proof of Work

The blockchain is the engine of Bitcoin and all other fair cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin’s blockchain is based on a distributed consensus mechanism called Proof of Work [POW]. It is fair, but it is very expensive. If solar power and other cheap energy sources spread across the world, the economics of POW guarantee that all the new, inexpensive energy will be diverted into mining and will not free humanity from fossil fuels and massive cash payments across borders.
We must replace the current Proof-of-Work mechanism with one that does not suck up every available kilowatt. Currently, POW is the scalability elephant in the room. Other cryptocurrencies have introduced alternate consensus mechanisms, but, in my opinion, they are either centralized or unfair.
Fortunately, other fair, distributed consensus mechanisms are on the horizon. You can read more about it here:

2. Dwindling of Mining Rewards and the Alignment of Goals

Every user must eventually become a miner. This will align the interests of stakeholders, incentive validators (what is now called miners), and enhance Satoshi’s vision of a fair, decentralized system of accounting and consensus.

What motivates you?

I am very fortunate to have discovered a calling and a career that fires my passion in every way. I recognized the importance of the blockchain and Bitcoin very early, and as an amateur writer, I realized that I could dispel myths that were bound to arise. The biggest myths about cryptocurrency, and Bitcoin in particular, are:
Absolutely none of this is true. But it makes for great press and it leads to a state of fear, which helps to mislead the public. I try hard to counter such misunderstanding and irrational fear in my articles, presentations and consulting.

What’s your definition of success?

Cryptocurrency transactions fall into two classes:

1. Transactions driven by money exchange or investment (speculators, hoarders, day traders)
2. Transactions driven by commerce (purchases, sales, debt settlement, staff salaries, interbank transfers, bonding shipments).
Today, the first category accounts for 95% or more of all Bitcoin transactions.
The first stage of “success” will be the time at which the fraction of Bitcoin transactions in Category 2 exceeds those in Category one. This will be the day that Bitcoin stops fluctuating and becomes a serious economic instrument.
Later a 2nd success will arrive when citizens of the world begin to shift their accumulated wealth and credit from legacy, national currencies to Bitcoin.

What you think of work/life balance?

With any career or project, there is always a risk of abandoning family responsibilities or the need to relax. I find my work to be both rewarding and relaxing (my career in cryptocurrencies and blockchain). But, I still spend more than half of my time with family and friends. For me, the balance is crucial to leading a fulfilling life.
Many of these friends are interested in the same things as me, and i always try to learn from those with different interests and skills.

What is the best advice you can give to the people who are reading this?

Don’t get sucked into ICOs. They are scams
More about this:
(a) Is every ICOs a scam?
(b) ICOs & altcoins rise and fall, but Bitcoin endures
-Philip Raymond
Phil Blockchain columnist: Dozens of published articles. Additionally, Admin/Moderator of Largest Bitcoin group; 30,000+…bitcoinreferee.com
Thanks for reading. If you have thoughts on this, be sure to leave a comment.
If you found this article helpful, smash the clap 👏 button.
You can follow me on twitter for more.
submitted by Different_Code to u/Different_Code [link] [comments]

[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] Why I predict Bitcoin will go to zero

The following post by psntax is being replicated because some comments within the post(but not the post itself) have been silently removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ Bitcoin/comments/7ipwa7
The original post's content was as follows:
It seems the mania and hype have reached epic proportions. You see headlines like “bitcoin could reach 100,000”, “bitcoin going up over 1000%.” I even ran into someone the other day saying he invested because he knew someone who made over $100,000 investing in bitcoin. My thought was, yeh I knew a guy who made over $100,000 on a lottery ticket but that doesn’t make lottery tickets a good investment.
As I kind of pride myself as a successful long term investor, my gut automatically tells me bitcoin is a bad investment. I decided to take a moment and put pen to paper to try and back up my initial instinct of why my gut tells me bitcoin is a bad investment. I will attempt to lay out the case why I predict bitcoin is actually worthless.
  1. It has no utility - Ok, for something to have value it must be useful. You buy homes to utilize them, gold can be used for jewlry and electronics, stocks are ownership in companies producing goods and services people want to buy. Even non physical things like performance art and literature can have value because people enjoy them. I have heard the argument that none of this matters because bitcoin is like the US dollar or other fiat currency, and currency is a store of wealth backed by nothing of value. But their is a big difference. US dollars will always be worth something because you have to use them to pay taxes. Even if we were a completely barter economy, you would have to go out and exchange enough goods and services for US dollars to pay your taxes. See, the problem is that no one is buying bitcoin to use or enjoy it. They are only buying hopping some one might buy it from them for a higher price in the future.
  2. It doesn’t produce income - Now there are intangible investments that have no physical utility or enjoyment use, but they are used to produce something with utility. A good example are instruments like bonds, futures, stock options, CDs and other “commercial paper.” These products have no physical utility for those who buy them, but they are a way to transfer resources to be used to produce something of utility. When you invest in a CD or bond or any other debt instrument someone’s taking that and investing it in future labor or production of something useful. For example if you buy a CD, the bank takes that money and loans it to someone who buys a truck or a home and then they pay back the debt with future productivity or labor giving that CD value. When you invest in a commercial paper instrument, it eventually finds its way into investing in something that purchases or produces something of value. If you invest in bitcoin even though it has some of the same attributes of an intangible investment it goes into no productive use.
  3. It must also be scarce - Ok I know some of you are screaming saying it does have utility because you can use it to transfer money. But even if something has utility, it must also have a level of scarcity to be a store of wealth. For example the air we breath has enormous value too us. We would be willing to pay everything we have and all our future earnings for breathable air if we were trapped in a submarine under water. But here on land even though air is necessary to our very existence, it has no value because it is so abundant. Ok you might say there are only so many bitcoin so it is scarce. But bitcoin is really just a data set of block chain technology. This technology is open source meaning that is freely accessible to anyone. That’s why their are now thousands of new crypto currencies and more popping up every day. So saying bitcoin is scarce is like saying the air over Palm Beach is scarce so if we bottle it up it will be valuable, because there is only so much air over Palm Beach. Bitcoin is not scarce because it is no more useful than any other crypto currency, just like the air over Palm Beach is no more useful than the air you are breathing right now.
4.It is a bubble - Look throughout human history, something is a bubble when a majority of people buy it just hoping it goes up in value, and not as a user of the product. Speculation causes huge distortions in the market. I buy a car because it has value to me because I don’t have to walk to work, I buy homes because they provide me shelter safety and comfort. I buy an IPhone because it makes me more productive and entertained. We have seen it in houses, comic books, art, beanie babies, heck even tulip bulbs. Bubbles occur when the price is determined by speculation that something will go up in value and not for the utility or enjoyment it provides to the individual. If people really were just buying bitcoin for its utility to transfer money, then the market would provide an accurate price. A scuba diver pays to have his tanks filled with air even though the air is free. There is a cost to condense and transport that air and yes their is a small value in that, because it takes resources to build the infrastructure to move the air. But the guy who pays to have scuba tanks filled with air is not doing so hoping to sell it for more in the future. If the vast majority of bitcoin users were truly using it for its useful purpose the price would be accurately reflected. The problem is the vast majority of bitcoin investors don’t even really understand it let alone use it. I would argue most of the investors are buying just in the hopes someone will buy it from them at a higher price in the future, with no intention of using it to transfer money.
Anyway I think it’s a good discussion to have so if disagree please tell me where you think I’m wrong.
submitted by censorship_notifier to noncensored_bitcoin [link] [comments]

I'm no Nostradamus

I'll probably get downvoted to hell for writing this, but Bitcoin is quite the circlejerk these days... The price goes up by double digit percentage points every day and no one seems to worry. It's all buy, buy, buy, ermahgerd it's going to $1,000 per BTC buy now at $200+ or be left behind. While I understand the fundamentals of Bitcoin, at the end of the day it really is only worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it, not unlike any other currency. It's all supply, demand, and faith, and while demand is on the rise and supply is very limited, the tide can change very quickly (ie. the faith part). Any contrarian investor would look at the price trend and the posting in this sub (as well as other threads) and think, holy crap!... one out of about 100 posts is about the risks and downsides while every other post is all hype.
The incredible rise in publicity and recent influx of managed capital is what has been driving the recent bubble, but I would strongly caution people to step back and really think about what is sustainable in the bitcoin economy. Is it really fair that some early adopter with 100k+ coins owns ~1/200th of the entire economy without actually providing any output? What if someone has 200k coins? They then control ~1% of the economy and can potentially manipulate the currency... Will the hype last or is it a fad? More and more ways to spend BTC in the real world are popping up, but the majority of action seems to be in just trading which seems to be what is propping up the price. Is this a healthy market? In any case, this is a bit of a rant, but I just wanted to post here to say be careful out there. The current price action, at least to me, smells fishy.
tl;dr I'm no Nostradamus.
Edit: Removed reference to Tulip mania since apparently it is a sore subject. While vastly different from Tulip mania in many ways, what is going on right now surely feels like a mania... tulip or otherwise. Something for the history books, no doubt.
submitted by s_killed_one to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Taking Advantage of Blockchain KASMIR TULIP GARDAN 2015 BITCOIN + TULIP MANIA + DOT COM MILLIONAIRES = FAKE NEWS What is Blockchain? Bitcoin: Is it just a speculative Bubble?

Here’s Everything Goldman Said About Bitcoin In ‘Tulip Mania’ Slides "We have compared bitcoin and ether... to the Gouda variety of tulip bulbs". the bank summarily dismisses the notion that Bitcoin, like gold, deserves a scarcity premium. Bitcoin is a call option on the future. The book the “Bitcoin Standard” is beautiful SAN FRANCISCO — When you discuss to tech trade insiders about the place Bitcoin is heading, two vastly totally different comparisons are inevitable: the tulip bulb and the web. Bitcoin’s critics say the digital tokens are like the tulip bulbs of 17th-century Holland. Right now, it’s bitcoin. But in the past, we’ve had dot-com stocks, the 1929 crash, 19th century railways and the South Sea Bubble of 1720. All these were compared by contemporaries to “tulip mania”, the Dutch financial craze for tulip bulbs in the 1630s. Bitcoin, according some sceptics, is “tulip mania 2.0”. NYT SAN FRANCISCO Digital gold. The new tulip mania. A virtual currency. Whatever you want to call it, Bitcoin is on an extraordinary run, soaring an all-time high above $10,000 on Wednesday on major exchanges and digital currency indexes, including the widely followed Luxembourg-based trading platform BitStamp. if you compare it to the mississippi bubble or -- if you look at the peak in bitcoin was higher than tulip, maine, and now it crashed by 60% compared to the peak of mid-december. 10% today.

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Taking Advantage of Blockchain

In 1637 the price of a single lot of ten variegated leaf tulip bulbs reached that of an Amsterdam town house, the equivalent of Euro 2-3 million in today’s money. This was the era of Tulip Mania. This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Join the CryptoTalk.News Telegram Chat to keep up with new Airdrops & Bounties! Don't miss out on FREE cryptocurrency https://t.me/ctn_live Why Bitcoin Is NOT Like Tulip Mania Join our Bitconnect ... Editor:Sahelabrar Vloger:Aysha akter Cameraman:Sakinabrar This vlog is my 3rd vlog. My sons help me a lot for this.please like my video Subcribe and share. Dec 15 – Demelza Hays, a cryptocurrency researcher at Incrementum and the co-author of their inaugural Crypto Research Report, discusses comparisons between bitcoin and the 17thcentury tulip ...

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